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UCD

UC Davis 28 at Oregon 53

ORE
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadUCD aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreUCD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:12 · Ian Wheeler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isiah Olave at the UCDav 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+41.1Home team on offense+9.9Score differential+3.8Garbage-time factor+3.7Blowout margin−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:45: Dakota Prukop pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 10 yds for a TD, (C. Nelson Run For Two-point Conversion) — ORE win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:37: Jalen Brown 14 Yd pass from Dakota Prukop (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ORE win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:25: Manusamoa Luuga run for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Blair KICK) — UCD win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:41: Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Blair KICK) — UCD win probability +1.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:44: Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Blair KICK) — UCD win probability +1.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UCD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UCD made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:42UCD 4th & 7 at UCD 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:11ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:08UCD 4th & 5 at UCD 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:13ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:57UCD 4th & 16 at UCD 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:04UCD 4th & 7 at UCD 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:51ORE 4th & 4 at UCD 14, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:13UCD 4th & 14 at UCD 18, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:12ORE 4th & 6 at UCD 43, up 12
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:23UCD 4th & 7 at UCD 23, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:37ORE 4th & 2 at UCD 9, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:50UCD 4th & 13 at UCD 5, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:43UCD 4th & 6 at ORE 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:29UCD 4th & 7 at UCD 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:56ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 41, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:17UCD 4th & 1 at ORE 41, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 7UCD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:19UCD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:25ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:45ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:37ORE Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:53ORE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:25UCD Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:30ORE Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:41UCD Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:13ORE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:44UCD Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:33ORE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCDDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.5%
Ben Scott sacked by Henry Mondeaux for a loss of 10 yards to the UCDav 15Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
99.4%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the UCDav 15Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+13
99.4%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 13 yds to the UCDav 28Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-2
99.4%
Colby Wadman punt for 37 yds , Charles Nelson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 33 Charles Nelson fumbled, recovered by UCDavSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 2TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:091% → 1%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.4%
Ben Scott run for 5 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-3
99.3%
Manusamoa Luuga run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+27
99.3%
Ben Scott pass complete to Jared Harrell for 27 yds to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.3%
Ben Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
99.3%
UC DAVIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 9Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.2%
Ben Scott run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matt Blair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:0899% → 99%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
99.2%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+4
99.2%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+15
99.2%
UC DAVIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
99.2%
Dakota Prukop run for 3 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCDav 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:471% → 1%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.1%
Ben Scott pass complete to Keelan Doss for 5 yds to the UCDav 35Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
99.0%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Chris MartinSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+16
99.0%
Colby Wadman punt for 44 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 16 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4999% → 99%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
99.0%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+6
99.0%
Devon Allen run for 6 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+9
98.9%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 9 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 6:13
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
98.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Isiah Olave at the UCDav 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:461% → 2%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
98.8%
Ben Scott pass complete to Keelan Doss for 4 yds to the UCDav 13Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
98.7%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+11
98.7%
Ben Scott pass complete to Jared Harrell for 11 yds to the UCDav 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
98.7%
Ben Scott pass complete to Keelan Doss for 6 yds to the UCDav 30Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Luke WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+16
98.6%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 16 yds to the UCDav 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
98.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCDav 42Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 14
OWN 42
-2
98.5%
Ben Scott pass complete to Jared Harrell for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 40Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 16
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Corey CollinsSimilar
Q1 2:57
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
98.4%
Colby Wadman punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:2198% → 99%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
98.4%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 23 yds to the UCDav 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
98.4%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 3 yds to the UCDav 39Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
98.4%
Dakota Prukop run for 4 yds to the UCDav 35Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+14
98.3%
Dakota Prukop run for 14 yds to the UCDav 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
98.3%
Dakota Prukop run for 3 yds to the UCDav 18Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+1
98.2%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Royce Freeman for 1 yd to the UCDav 17Similar
Q1 0:44
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+11
98.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 11 yds to the UCDav 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.6%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds for a TD, (C. Nelson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:572% → 2%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Joshua Kelley run for no gain to the UCDav 25Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.4%
Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 8 yds to the UCDav 33Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
98.3%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Dan PlumSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
98.3%
UC DAVIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 28Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Colby Wadman punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Charles Nelson at the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:5798% → 98%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
98.3%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
98.3%
Kani Benoit run for 4 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+22
98.2%
Kani Benoit run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
50
+11
98.3%
Dakota Prukop run for 11 yds to the UCDav 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
98.2%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Keleen Culberson for a loss of 7 yards to the UCDav 46Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 17
OPP 46
+6
98.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 6 yds to the UCDav 40Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+20
98.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 20 yds to the UCDav 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
98.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 6 yds to the UCDav 14Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
98.1%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
97.9%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
97.9%
Aidan Schneider 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 10INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:302% → 2%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.9%
OREGON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UCDav 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.7%
Ben Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
97.8%
UC DAVIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 35Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+1
97.8%
Ben Scott pass intercepted Jalen Jelks return for 1 yd to the UCDav 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:1298% → 99%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
97.9%
Charles Nelson run for 6 yds to the UCDav 23Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+12
97.9%
Royce Freeman run for 12 yds to the UCDav 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
97.9%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 1 yd to the UCDav 10Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
98.6%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 10 yds for a TD, (C. Nelson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:102% → 2%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
98.5%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 9 yds to the UCDav 16Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+6
98.4%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 6 yds to the UCDav 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
98.4%
Ben Scott pass complete to Derek Baljeu for a loss of 4 yards to the UCDav 18Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 14
OWN 18
0
98.3%
Ben Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 14
OWN 18
0
98.3%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Keelan DossSimilar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
98.4%
Colby Wadman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Charles Nelson at the Oregn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4898% → 98%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
98.4%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 13 yds to the UCDav 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
98.4%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+10
98.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 10 yds to the UCDav 42Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
98.3%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-1
98.2%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Brandon Jamison for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 43Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
98.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isiah Olave at the UCDav 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:392% → 2%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
98.2%
Manusamoa Luuga run for no gain to the UCDav 9Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+11
98.1%
Ben Scott pass complete to Keelan Doss for 11 yds to the UCDav 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.0%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 3 yds to the UCDav 23Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
98.0%
Ben Scott pass complete to Derek Baljeu for no gain to the UCDav 23Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
98.0%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Luke WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+46
98.0%
Colby Wadman punt for 55 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 46 yds to the UCDav 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:3198% → 99%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
98.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 10 yds to the UCDav 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
98.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 12 yds to the UCDav 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.1%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
98.1%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Russell Reeder for a loss of 4 yards to the UCDav 14Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
98.6%
Jalen Brown 14 Yd pass from Dakota Prukop (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 0:4998% → 100%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
98.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+15
98.7%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
50
+49
98.8%
Royce Freeman run for 49 yds to the UCDav 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Dakota Prukop run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Hollins Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:090% → 2%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
99.6%
Ben Scott pass complete to Keelan Doss for 50 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.5%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 5 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
98.2%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Blair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:2399% → 99%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
99.0%
Taj Griffin run for 8 yds to the UCDav 30Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+13
99.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Taj Griffin for 13 yds to the UCDav 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.1%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
99.1%
Dakota Prukop run for 5 yds to the UCDav 12Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+3
99.0%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the UCDav 9Similar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+1
98.9%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the UCDav 8 Royce Freeman fumbled, recovered by Oregn Royce FreemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:292% → 2%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
98.5%
Manusamoa Luuga run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCDav 3Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 15
OWN 3
+2
98.5%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 2 yds to the UCDav 5Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 13
OWN 5
0
98.5%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Chris MartinSimilar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 13
OWN 5
+38
98.5%
Colby Wadman punt for 41 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 38 yds to the UCDav 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:1099% → 100%
Q3 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
99.0%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the UCDav 5Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Royce Freeman 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 22TD
17 plays · 65 yds · 5:301% → 2%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.4%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd to the UCDav 36Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
99.4%
UC DAVIS Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the UCDav 31Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Ben Scott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+22
99.5%
Ben Scott pass complete to Keelan Doss for 22 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.4%
Ben Scott pass complete to Joshua Kelley for 5 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+11
99.4%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.3%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
99.4%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Luke WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+12
99.6%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 12 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.6%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 6 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+6
99.6%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 6 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.6%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 5 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.5%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) to the Oregn 1Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.9%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Blair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 23MISSED FG
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:532% → 2%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
98.0%
UC DAVIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 15
OPP 36
-9
98.2%
Ben Scott sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 24
OPP 45
+12
98.2%
Ben Scott pass complete to Wesley Preece for 12 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+18
98.2%
Ben Scott pass complete to Keelan Doss for 18 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
98.1%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 4 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
98.0%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Chris MartinSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
98.2%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Manusamoa LuugaSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
98.3%
Matt Blair 28 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Troy DyeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:2099% → 100%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.9%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
98.9%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Royce Freeman for 4 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+29
99.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 29 yds to the UCDav 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
99.0%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+55
99.8%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 55 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Ben Scott pass complete to Chris Martin for 9 yds to the UCDav 34Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
99.8%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 12 yds to the UCDav 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.7%
Ben Scott pass complete to Wesley Preece for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 6
50
-1
99.7%
Manusamoa Luuga run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 49Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Corey CollinsSimilar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Colby Wadman punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.8%
Kani Benoit run for 5 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+13
99.8%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.8%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Jalen Brown for 3 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 44 yds , Isiah Olave returns for no gain to the UCDav 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 27TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:030% → 2%
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
99.9%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 2 yds to the UCDav 17Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+11
99.9%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 11 yds to the UCDav 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
99.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Manusamoa Luuga for 16 yds to the UCDav 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.9%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Khris VaughnSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+36
99.8%
Ben Scott pass complete to Justin Clarkston for 36 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Blair KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:0499% → 100%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 5 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+7
99.0%
Dakota Prukop run for 7 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.1%
Taj Griffin run for no gain to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.0%
Casey Eugenio run for 15 yds to the UCDav 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
99.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 9 yds to the UCDav 33Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+33
99.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 33 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCDDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Khris Vaughn for 9 yds to the UCDav 34Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Mitchell Layton run for no gain to the UCDav 34Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.9%
Mitchell Layton run for 4 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
99.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Khris Vaughn for 6 yds to the UCDav 44Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
99.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Wesley Preece for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
50
+6
99.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Wesley Preece for 6 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
99.9%
Ben Scott pass complete to Mitchell Layton for 3 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Mitchell Layton run for no gain to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Ben Scott pass incomplete to Wesley PreeceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Jarret LaCoste run for 2 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:44
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Blair KICK)
-1.9
TD · Q3 2:41
Manusamoa Luuga run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Blair KICK)
-1.6
TD · Q3 12:25
Manusamoa Luuga run for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Blair KICK)
-1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com