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NAU

Northern Arizona 13 at Arizona State 44

ASU
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreNAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:00 · Dylan Kegans punt for 2 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the NoArz 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoArz Corbin Jountti
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior+30.6Home team on offense+6.2Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 10:51: Griffin Roehler 23 yd FG GOOD — NAU win probability +4.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:05: Demario Richard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +5.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:51: N'Keal Harry run for 34 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez PAT MISSED) — ASU win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:39: Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 87 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK) — NAU win probability +5.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:10: Kalen Ballage run for 30 yds for a TD, (Manny Wilkins pass to Kalen Ballage for Two-Point Conversion) — ASU win probability +2.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6NAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:58NAU 4th & 1 at ASU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32NAU 4th & 6 at ASU 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%
    58% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:44ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 9, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:26NAU 4th & 4 at ASU 7, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16ASU 4th & 22 at ASU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:42NAU 4th & 7 at NAU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:59ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:33NAU 4th & 7 at ASU 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:26ASU 4th & 7 at NAU 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:00NAU 4th & 5 at NAU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:51NAU 4th & 6 at ASU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:29ASU 4th & 7 at NAU 35, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:29NAU 4th & 10 at ASU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:10NAU 4th & 13 at NAU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:10NAU 4th & 4 at NAU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:48ASU 4th & 2 at NAU 27, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:48NAU 4th & 9 at NAU 26, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NAU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 12:58ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:05ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:51ASU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:39NAU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:10ASU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:46ASU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:0296% → 96%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
95.7%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the NoArz 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+2
95.7%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the NoArz 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+10
95.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 10 yds to the NoArz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
95.7%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the NoArz 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+7
95.7%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the NoArz 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
95.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the NoArz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
95.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 13 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Case Cookus pass incomplete, broken up by Gump HayesSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.5%
Kendyl Taylor run for 2 yds to the NoArz 27Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+25
95.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 25 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
95.5%
Kendyl Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+3
95.5%
Kendyl Taylor run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+21
95.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 21 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.4%
Case Cookus pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus BallSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
95.4%
Kendyl Taylor run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
95.4%
Kendyl Taylor run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 1
OPP 16
-3
95.5%
Kendyl Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
94.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 15 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
94.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
94.9%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted Cole Sterns return for no gain to the ArzSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
94.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to D. McClellon for loss of 2 yards to the ASU48 (Orr, Kareem), PENALTY NAU personal foul (Blake Porter) 15 yards to the NAU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 25
OWN 39
+15
94.7%
Case Cookus pass complete to Jonathan Baldwin for 15 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
94.6%
[SG], PENALTY NAU delay of game (Case Cookus) 5 yards to the NAU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+8
94.7%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 8 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+10
94.6%
Kendyl Taylor run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.5%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Delshawn McClellonSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
94.5%
Kendyl Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+5
94.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 5 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 6
OPP 29
0
94.7%
Case Cookus punt for 26 yds, downed at the ArzSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3594% → 94%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
94.1%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+1
94.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 1 yd to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+2
93.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
93.6%
Matt Haack punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArzSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:087% → 7%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.5%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Elijah MarksSimilar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
93.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Kendyl Taylor for 3 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+10
93.5%
[SG], Case Cookus pass incomplete to W. Morehand, PENALTY ASU holding (Orr, Kareem) 10 yards to the ASU32, 1ST DOWN NAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
93.3%
Corbin Jountti run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+24
93.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 24 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
92.9%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Emmanuel ButlerSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+1
92.9%
Corbin Jountti run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+5
93.2%
Case Cookus pass complete to Hunter Burton for 5 yds to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
92.6%
Griffin Roehler 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
92.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 2 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+8
92.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
92.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 4 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
92.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
92.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 12 yds to the NoArz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
92.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the NoArz 41Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-2
92.7%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 43Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-14
92.6%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Khalil Dorsey for a loss of 14 yards to the ARIZONAST 43 ARIZONA ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Manny Wilkins) to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 22
OWN 43
0
92.0%
Matt Haack punt for 33 yds, downed at the NoArz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
92.2%
Kendyl Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 23Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
92.3%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Delshawn McClellonSimilar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+4
92.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 4 yds to the NoArz 27Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
92.6%
Dylan Kegans punt for 33 yds , Tim White returns for no gain to the ArzSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
91.3%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+2
91.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
90.9%
Matt Haack puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
90.6%
[SG], Kendyl Taylor rush for 11 yards to the ASU38 (Orr, Kareem), PENALTY NAU holding (Dylan LaFrenz) 10 yards to the NAU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 20
OWN 41
-5
91.3%
[SG], PENALTY NAU delay of game (Case Cookus) 5 yards to the NAU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 25
OWN 36
-1
91.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Kendyl Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 35Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 26
OWN 35
+19
91.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Delshawn McClellon for 19 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
90.8%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Kendyl TaylorSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
91.5%
Dylan Kegans punt for 40 yds, downed at the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11FG
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:3890% → 91%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
90.0%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 9Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+20
89.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 20 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
90.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 11 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
90.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 4 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+28
90.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 28 yds to the NoArz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
91.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the NoArz 26Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
91.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+8
90.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds to the NoArz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
91.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the NoArz 14Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
91.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-1
90.9%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 15Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
91.3%
Zane Gonzalez 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:209% → 8%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.5%
Kendyl Taylor run for no gain to the NoArz 20Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
91.5%
Kendyl Taylor run for 3 yds to the NoArz 23 Kendyl Taylor fumbled, forced by Chad Adams,Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+2
91.7%
Kendyl Taylor run for 2 yds to the NoArz 25Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Dylan Kegans punt for 2 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the NoArz 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NoArz Corbin JounttiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 60 yds · 0:249% → 11%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
90.7%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 9 yds to the NoArz 48Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+6
89.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 6 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
89.6%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoArz 49Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+1
91.2%
Kendyl Taylor run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 14
50
+13
91.2%
Case Cookus run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+36
89.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 36 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 14FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:0910% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
90.0%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 39 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
88.7%
Kendyl Taylor run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+2
87.9%
Case Cookus run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+14
88.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Delshawn McClellon for 14 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
87.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Jonathan Baldwin for 12 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
88.0%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
87.9%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Emmanuel ButlerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
87.9%
[SG], PENALTY NAU false start (Cole Habib) 5 yards to the ASU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
88.1%
Case Cookus pass complete to Delshawn McClellon for 10 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.6%
Kendyl Taylor run for no gain to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.2%
Case Cookus rush for no gain to the ASU1 (Ball, Marcus), PENALTY ASU offside (Orr, Kareem) 0 yards to the ASU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
89.2%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, delay of game (Case Cookus) to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
85.1%
Griffin Roehler 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2287% → 90%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
87.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 5 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
88.0%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
87.7%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
88.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 13 yds to the NoArz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
88.5%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Deon Young for a loss of 7 yards to the NoArz 45Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+11
87.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 11 yds to the NoArz 34Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-1
88.2%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jake Casteel for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 35Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+53
89.8%
Zane Gonzalez 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.7%
Kendyl Taylor run for 5 yds to the NoArz 30Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
87.2%
[SG], Kendyl Taylor rush for loss of 2 yards to the NAU28 (Smallwood, T.), PENALTY ASU face mask (Smallwood, T.) 15 yards to the NAU45, 1ST DOWN NAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
86.6%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Jabril Taylor, PENALTY ASU personal foul (Ball, Marcus) 15 yards to the ASU40, 1ST DOWN NAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.9%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Elijah MarksSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
85.9%
Corbin Jountti run for no gain to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
86.8%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Emmanuel ButlerSimilar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
87.8%
Dylan Kegans punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tim White at the ArzSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 5:1189% → 96%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
89.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
89.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 7 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+5
89.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
89.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
89.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+2
89.8%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
90.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
90.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 9 yds to the NoArz 47Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
90.1%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the NoArz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
90.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 15 yds to the NoArz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
90.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 8 yds to the NoArz 21Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
90.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the NoArz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
90.8%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete, PENALTY NAU personal foul (Jake Thomas) 9 yards to the NAU9, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
90.8%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the NoArz 2Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.4%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:555% → 6%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 15 yds to the NoArz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
94.0%
Corbin Jountti run for 4 yds to the NoArz 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+8
93.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 8 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
93.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 7 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-9
93.5%
William Morehand run for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 12
50
-1
93.4%
Kendyl Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 49Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
94.1%
Dylan Kegans punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 15 , Tim White returns for no gain to the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:3496% → 99%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
96.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 10 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
96.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 17 yds to the ArzSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
96.6%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+17
96.6%
Demario Richard run for 17 yds to the NoArz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.2%
N'Keal Harry run for 34 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 87 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
94.1%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 87 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:2197% → 100%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
96.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 6 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
96.6%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+15
96.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
96.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 20 yds to the NoArz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
96.9%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the NoArz 30Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+30
99.5%
Kalen Ballage run for 30 yds for a TD, (Manny Wilkins pass to Kalen Ballage for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Kendyl Taylor run for no gain to the NoArz 25Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.1%
Kendyl Taylor run for 8 yds to the NoArz 33Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
99.1%
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 31Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+43
99.1%
Dylan Kegans punt for 47 yds , Tim White returns for 43 yds to the NoArz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.6%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the NoArz 30Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+2
99.6%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the NoArz 28Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+1
99.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 1 yd to the NoArz 27Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+45
99.6%
Zane Gonzalez 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
Corbin Jountti run for 2 yds to the NoArz 27Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.4%
Corbin Jountti run for 1 yd to the NoArz 28Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
99.4%
Case Cookus sacked by Tyler Whiley for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 26Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-14
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the NoArz 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Nick Ralston run for 12 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Corbin Jountti run for 6 yds to the NoArz 31Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
99.9%
Corbin Jountti run for 11 yds to the NoArz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Corbin Jountti run for 3 yds to the NoArz 45Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-5
99.9%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, delay of game (Case Cookus) to the NoArz 40Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Corbin Jountti run for no gain to the NoArz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:05
Demario Richard run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q4 10:39
Case Cookus pass complete to Elijah Marks for 87 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK)
-5
FG · Q3 10:51
Griffin Roehler 23 yd FG GOOD
-4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com