Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 13 at Stanford 26

STAN
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2016 · Stanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:53: Ryan Burns pass complete to Michael Rector for 40 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +3.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:47: Christian McCaffrey run for 35 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +5.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. SAFETY · Q4 4:11: Jesse Ertz sacked by Jordan Watkins for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETY — STAN win probability +2.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:20: Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK) — KSU win probability +12.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:12: Christian McCaffrey run for 41 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +10.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6KSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 9:22STAN 4th & 5 at KSU 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:11KSU 4th & 9 at KSU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:10KSU 4th & 2 at STAN 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−0.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:24KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 33, down 17
    Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:43STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:01KSU 4th & 13 at STAN 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:39KSU 4th & 6 at STAN 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−4.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:58STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 36, up 11
    Close callPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:27KSU 4th & 11 at STAN 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:10STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 43, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:18STAN 4th & 11 at KSU 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:02KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 7, down 11
    Close callPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:19STAN 4th & 8 at KSU 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:20KSU 4th & 10 at STAN 15, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:18KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:36KSU 4th & 16 at STAN 32, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 14:53STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:47STAN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:20KSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:12STAN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 5:1486% → 85%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
86.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
86.3%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
50
-5
86.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 45Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+9
85.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the KanSt 46Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+9
85.8%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 9 yds to the KanSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
85.7%
Michael Rector run for 1 yd to the KanSt 36Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+2
85.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the KanSt 34Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+5
85.4%
Burns, Ryan rush for 3 yards to the KANSASST31, PENALTY KANSASST substitution infraction 5 yards to the KANSASST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-3
85.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 32Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
85.2%
Conrad Ukropina 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 3:1115% → 15%
Q1 9:22
4TH & 5
OWN 35
-5
85.0%
Bailey, Jake kickoff 65 yards to the KANSASST0, Pringle, Byron return 19 yards to the KANSASST19, PENALTY STANFORD offside 5 yards to the STANFORD30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 10
OWN 30
-5
84.9%
Bailey, Jake kickoff 70 yards to the KANSASST0, touchback, PENALTY STANFORD offside 5 yards to the STANFORD25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.1%
Charles Jones run for no gain to the KanSt 26Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
85.0%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron Pringle, broken up by Justin ReidSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+19
85.0%
Jesse Ertz run for 19 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
84.4%
Charles Jones run for 2 yds to the KanSt 47Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-1
84.2%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Bobby Okereke for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 46Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
84.7%
Nick Walsh punt for 51 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for no gain to the Stanf 46 STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Block (Curtis Robinson) to the Stanf 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
10 plays · 98 yds · 6:0784% → 86%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
84.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 4Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
84.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+12
83.7%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Greg Taboada for 12 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
83.8%
Ryan Burns run for 4 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+1
83.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 24Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+15
83.1%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Michael Rector for 15 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
83.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 35Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
82.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 35Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+25
82.3%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Greg Taboada for 25 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
86.2%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Michael Rector for 40 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:3014% → 14%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.7%
Dalvin Warmack run for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
85.3%
Jesse Ertz run for 11 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
85.4%
Justin Silmon run for 2 yds to the KanSt 45Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
85.3%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber, broken up by Harrison PhillipsSimilar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+12
85.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 12 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
84.9%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-1
84.8%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Jordan Watkins for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+6
84.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 6 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
85.8%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Solomon Thomas and Sean Barton for 0 yards to the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1486% → 92%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
85.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 11 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
86.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
86.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
86.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the KanSt 35Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+35
92.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 35 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1710% → 10%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.3%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 7 yds to the KanSt 32Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
90.1%
Jesse Ertz run for 1 yd to the KanSt 33Similar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
90.3%
Nick Walsh punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 4:3292% → 93%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
92.4%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 2 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
92.5%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 15 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
93.0%
Ryan Burns run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 38 Ryan Burns fumbled, forced by Jordan Willis, recovered by Stanf Cameron ScarlettSimilar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-4
93.1%
Ryan Burns sacked by Dante Barnett for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 15
OWN 34
-2
92.7%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 32Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 17
OWN 32
+18
92.5%
Jake Bailey punt for 43 yds , Dominique Heath returns for 18 yds to the 50 yard line KANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the KanSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8DOWNS
12 plays · 54 yds · 1:349% → 11%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
90.8%
Jesse Ertz run for 16 yds to the KanSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.3%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
90.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 9 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-5
89.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Frantz) to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+24
90.1%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for 24 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
88.8%
Ertz, Jesse pass incomplete to Zuber, Isaiah, PENALTY STANFORD pass interference (Holder, Alijah) 15 yards to the STANFORD8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KANSASST.Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
88.8%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
88.8%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 13Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
89.3%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
90.3%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
89.3%
Matthew McCrane 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:2311% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.5%
KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Terrale Johnson) to the KanSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
89.6%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 15Similar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
89.6%
Charles Jones run for 8 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
89.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 7 yds to the KanSt 30Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
89.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 8 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
89.0%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Peter Kalambayi for a loss of 4 yards to the KanSt 34Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+26
89.9%
Joe Hubener pass intercepted Dallas Lloyd return for 26 yds to the KanSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1991% → 91%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
90.8%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Michael Rector for 13 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
91.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the KanSt 23Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+35
91.1%
Ryan Burns run for a loss of 13 yards to the Stanf 29 Ryan Burns fumbled, recovered by KanSt Charmeachealle Moore , return for 35 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:1812% → 14%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
87.8%
Jesse Ertz run for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-4
87.9%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Harrison Phillips for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+14
89.2%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Byron Pringle for 14 yds to the Stanf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
87.9%
Joe Hubener run for no gain to the Stanf 17Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
88.1%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
88.7%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
86.5%
Matthew McCrane 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2488% → 87%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
87.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
87.8%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+6
87.3%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 6 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
87.2%
Jake Bailey punt for 57 yds, downed at the KanSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14MISSED FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 7:1613% → 11%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
87.5%
Justin Silmon run for 7 yds to the KanSt 14Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 3
OWN 14
0
87.3%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+4
88.0%
Charles Jones run for 4 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
87.7%
Joe Hubener pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+16
87.8%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Deante Burton for 16 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
88.0%
Charles Jones run for 14 yds to the KanSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
87.1%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
86.6%
Joe Hubener run for 4 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+6
87.0%
Joe Hubener pass complete to Dayton Valentine for 6 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
86.5%
Charles Jones run for 6 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+9
85.2%
Justin Silmon run for 9 yds to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
85.2%
Justin Silmon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-8
85.6%
Joe Hubener sacked by Peter Kalambayi and Solomon Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 19
OPP 33
-5
87.9%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 24
OPP 38
+13
88.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dalvin Warmack for 13 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
88.7%
Matthew McCrane 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0990% → 92%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
90.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
89.9%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 8 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
90.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
90.9%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Greg TaboadaSimilar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+5
91.4%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Michael Rector for 5 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+5
91.5%
Jake Bailey punt for 47 yds , Byron Pringle returns for 5 yds to the KanSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:378% → 8%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
91.6%
Justin Silmon run for 3 yds to the KanSt 18Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
92.0%
Jesse Ertz pass intercepted Quenton Meeks return for no gain to the KanSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0093% → 91%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.9%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
92.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 49Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
92.3%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Greg TaboadaSimilar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
91.3%
Jake Bailey punt for 48 yds, downed at the KanSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:068% → 6%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
92.3%
Charles Jones run for 5 yds to the KanSt 6Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+4
92.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for 4 yds to the KanSt 10Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 10
-3
93.4%
Jesse Ertz run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 7Similar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 4
OWN 7
+16
94.0%
Nick Walsh punt for 48 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 16 yds to the KanSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2894% → 95%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
94.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the KanSt 38Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
94.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the KanSt 37Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
95.0%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for no gain to the KanSt 37Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
94.6%
Jake Bailey punt for 35 yds, downed at the KanSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20SF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-2
97.0%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Jordan Watkins for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 1:383% → 16%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
97.2%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
97.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 7 yds to the KanSt 41Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+44
97.2%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Dominique Heath for 44 yds to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
96.6%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Charles JonesSimilar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
97.1%
Jesse Ertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+15
84.4%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
98.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 41 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 33 yds · 1:213% → 2%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
97.5%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for 13 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
97.3%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Deante Burton for 12 yds to the KanSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Isaiah ZuberSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Dominique HeathSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+28
97.7%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Corey Sutton for 28 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
96.5%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Byron PringleSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-2
96.8%
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Charles Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 28Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 12
OPP 28
-4
97.1%
KANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Reid Najvar) to the Stanf 32Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 16
OPP 32
0
97.2%
Jesse Ertz pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 16
OPP 32
-14
97.6%
Jesse Ertz sacked by Peter Kalambayi for a loss of 14 yards to the Stanf 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:20
Jesse Ertz pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew McCrane KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q4 2:12
Christian McCaffrey run for 41 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+10.4
TD · Q2 7:47
Christian McCaffrey run for 35 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com