Try the model
CSU

Colorado State 7 at Colorado 44

COLO
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2016 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:41 · Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Home team on offense+17.1Score differential+12.3Pregame prior+16.1Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:31: Alex Kelley 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Diego Gonzalez Kick) — COLO win probability +1.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:38: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 17 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +2.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:39: Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +4.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 13:59: Diego Gonzalez 30 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +1.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:46: Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 6CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:30CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:05CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:48CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:59COLO 4th & 9 at CSU 12, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    83.7%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:46CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:48COLO 4th & 21 at COLO 14, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:10CSU 4th & 11 at COLO 45, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:41COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 33, up 24
    Close callPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:43COLO 4th & 3 at CSU 11, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:33CSU 4th & 8 at COLO 37, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:05COLO 4th & 4 at CSU 4, up 34
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:57CSU 4th & 5 at COLO 5, down 37
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:44CSU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:50COLO 4th & 1 at CSU 41, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:31COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:38COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:39COLO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:46COLO Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:57CSU Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:24COLO Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1824% → 24%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
76.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
76.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
76.0%
Hayden Hunt punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:5076% → 77%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
76.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 10 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
75.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 9 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
75.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
76.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 10 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
76.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+11
75.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 11 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
76.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+9
75.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 9 yds to the ColSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
75.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 8 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
77.0%
Alex Kelley 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Diego Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5224% → 23%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalyn DawkinsSimilar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
76.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Marcus WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+9
76.7%
Hayden Hunt punt for 50 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 9 yds to the Colo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:4577% → 80%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
76.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
76.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+14
76.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 14 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+31
77.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 31 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
77.2%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+10
77.2%
Sefo Liufau run for 10 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+17
79.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 17 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1521% → 21%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
78.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
79.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+10
79.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 52 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 10 yds to the Colo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:3680% → 81%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
79.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 8 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+2
80.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
80.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 7 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+12
80.8%
Sefo Liufau run for 12 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
80.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 13 yds to the ColSt 30 Phillip Lindsay fumbled, recovered by ColSt Jake SchlagerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1221% → 20%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
79.5%
Faton Bauta run for 4 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
79.7%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 2 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
80.0%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
80.2%
Hayden Hunt punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:5881% → 86%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+60
81.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 60 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the ColSt 1Similar
Q1 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.6%
Sefo Liufau run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:1414% → 14%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.7%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
86.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-16
86.5%
Nick Stevens sacked by Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 16 yards to the ColSt 13 Nick Stevens fumbled, forced by Jimmie Gilbert, recovered by Colo Kenneth Olugbode , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0287% → 89%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
86.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
87.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Phillip LindsaySimilar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+4
87.1%
Sefo Liufau run for 4 yds to the ColSt 7Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 4
OPP 7
-5
87.6%
COLORADO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 12Similar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
88.6%
Diego Gonzalez 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0012% → 11%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
87.9%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 31Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
88.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
88.6%
Hayden Hunt punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Jay MacIntyre at the Colo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 1:5290% → 90%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
89.5%
Donovan Lee run for 9 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+3
89.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 3 yds to the Colo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
89.9%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
90.0%
Sefo Liufau run for no gain to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+14
90.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 14 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-15
89.8%
COLORADO Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Colo 14Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
89.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2511% → 9%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
89.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 1
50
+6
89.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
89.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-2
89.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Sammie Long IV for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-1
90.6%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
90.7%
Hayden Hunt punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jay MacIntyre at the Colo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1392% → 93%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
92.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 8 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+1
92.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 20Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+4
92.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
92.6%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Jakob Buys for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 18Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+6
92.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 6 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+9
92.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 9 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
92.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:468% → 8%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
91.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
91.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+8
91.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 8 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
91.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
50
+1
91.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Nolan Peralta for 1 yd to the Colo 49Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
91.7%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+14
91.8%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Chidobe Awuzie return for 14 yds to the Colo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 0:4894% → 98%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
94.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 6 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
94.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+6
94.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 6 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+46
94.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 46 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17END OF HALF
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:192% → 2%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
98.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
98.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Elroy Masters Jr.Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
98.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 14 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.3%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Danny NwosuSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-8
98.3%
Nick Stevens sacked by Kenneth Olugbode for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18FG
18 plays · 64 yds · 4:1299% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q3 14:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 14:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
98.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 10 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 3 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+17
98.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 17 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
98.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 5 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+3
98.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+3
98.8%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
98.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+6
98.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+3
98.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
99.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 7 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
99.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
99.2%
Diego Gonzalez 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
99.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
99.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+18
99.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 18 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.1%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
99.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
99.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+20
99.4%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Tedric Thompson return for 20 yds to the Colo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:1399% → 100%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.4%
Donovan Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+15
99.4%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete, PENALTY COLOST personal foul 15 yards to the COLORADO49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.5%
Donovan Lee run for 4 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
99.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 4 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+9
99.5%
Sefo Liufau run for 9 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.6%
Donovan Lee run for 3 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+21
99.6%
Donovan Lee run for 21 yds to the ColSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.6%
Donovan Lee run for 2 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.6%
Sefo Liufau run for 6 yds to the ColSt 2Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
99.6%
Donovan Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 4Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
99.7%
Diego Gonzalez 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:460% → 0%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
99.8%
Michael Gallup run for 12 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
99.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the Colo 47Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
99.8%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Michael Gallup for 8 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.8%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Michael Gallup for 5 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+24
99.8%
Faton Bauta run for 24 yds to the Colo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the Colo 9Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
99.8%
Faton Bauta run for 6 yds to the Colo 3Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
99.8%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 5Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.7%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Marcus Wilson for 5 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22FUMBLE
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Donovan Lee run for 2 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Donovan Lee run for no gain to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+22
99.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 22 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
99.8%
Donovan Lee run for 3 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+10
99.8%
Sefo Liufau run for 10 yds to the ColSt 34 Sefo Liufau fumbled, forced by Justin Sweet, recovered by ColSt Demontrie TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
99.8%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Nolan Peralta for 10 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Detrich Clark run for 4 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Marcus Wilson for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 4
50
0
99.9%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Nolan PeraltaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 6:05100% → 100%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
99.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Kyle Evans run for 4 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Kyle Evans run for 7 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
99.9%
Kyle Evans run for 4 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
99.9%
Kyle Evans run for 20 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.9%
Kyle Evans run for 3 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Kyle Evans run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Kyle Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
100.0%
Faton Bauta run for 5 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
100.0%
Anthony Hawkins run for 17 yds to the Colo 48 Anthony Hawkins fumbled, recovered by Colo Tony JulmisseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
100.0%
Beau Bisharat run for 6 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
100.0%
Beau Bisharat run for 5 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
100.0%
Beau Bisharat run for 7 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-1
100.0%
Beau Bisharat run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:39
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q2 2:46
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q1 7:38
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 17 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)
+2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com