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ORST

Oregon State 23 at Minnesota 30

MINN
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2016 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGSAFETYTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:09 · Ryan Santoso punt for 54 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for no gain to the OrgSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+12.8Home team on offense+4.9Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score differential+1.5Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:37: Rodney Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +7.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:04: Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 30 yds for a TD MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +14.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:30: Darell Garretson pass complete to Tim Cook for 12 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +24.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:11: Rodney Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK) — MINN win probability +21.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:27: Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MINN win probability +22.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MINN 4th & 4 at ORST 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:49ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:17MINN 4th & 11 at ORST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    69.7%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:52MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:37ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:09MINN 4th & 29 at MINN 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:41MINN 4th & 3 at ORST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MINN 4th & 6 at ORST 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:13ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−2.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:16MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−2.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:17ORST 4th & 11 at MINN 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    31.8%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:37ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−2.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:11ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−1.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:39MINN 4th & 10 at ORST 38, up 1
    Close callPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−0.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:57ORST 4th & 1 at MINN 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.0%−7.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−6.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:27ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:52ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:05MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:37MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:04ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:30ORST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:11MINN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.7
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:27MINN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    91.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
72.3%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
72.3%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
-3
72.3%
Rodney Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
72.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 37 yds, downed at the OrgSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
72.0%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
72.1%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
72.0%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Landry Payne, broken up by KiAnte HardinSimilar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
72.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
72.0%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Vincent Calhoun) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 15
50
+2
71.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
71.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brian SmithSimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+2
71.7%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rodney Smith for 2 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
71.6%
Ryan Santoso punt for 35 yds, downed at the OrgSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 4:2029% → 34%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
71.4%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
71.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+15
71.6%
Garretson, D. pass incomplete to Villamin, J., PENALTY MINN personal foul (Poock, Cody) 15 yards to the OSU26, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
71.4%
Seth Collins run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-10
71.4%
Garretson, D. pass complete to Villamin, J. for 7 yards to the OSU34 (Myrick, Jalen), PENALTY OSU holding (Lauina, Fred) 10 yards to the OSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+31
71.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 31 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
71.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 8
50
+40
71.0%
Ryan Nall run for 40 yds to the Minn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
70.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 13Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
70.9%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the Minn 6Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
66.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 6 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
67.4%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 19Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
67.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Rashad Still for 6 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
67.3%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 5 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
67.5%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
67.8%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Nate Wozniak) to the Minn 30Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
67.4%
Mitch Leidner run for 3 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
67.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew WolitarskySimilar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
67.0%
Ryan Santoso punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 20 , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for no gain to the OrgSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:4035% → 36%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Ryan Nall, broken up by Jonathan CelestinSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
65.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+14
65.8%
Darell Garretson run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
64.9%
Seth Collins run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39 OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Noah Togiai) to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 20
OWN 24
-2
65.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 22
OWN 22
+5
65.5%
Garretson, D. pass complete to Bolden, Victor for 6 yards to the OSU28, PENALTY MINN offside (Martin, Kamal) 5 yards to the OSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+3
65.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 3 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 30
-2
63.9%
Darell Garretson sacked by Tai'yon Devers for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 28 Darell Garretson fumbled, recovered by Minn Steven Richardson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4866% → 70%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
65.8%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Tyler Moore) to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+7
65.4%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
65.8%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+7
65.2%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
65.8%
Drew Wolitarsky run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
65.8%
Rodney Smith run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
70.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 6 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0032% → 34%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
67.6%
Seth Collins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
67.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 6 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
67.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
66.7%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+25
66.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 25 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-7
65.6%
Darell Garretson sacked by Tai'yon Devers for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 41 Darell Garretson fumbled, recovered by Minn Kamal Martin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:2170% → 77%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
69.6%
Leidner, Mitch pass incomplete to Wolitarsky,Drew, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Crawford, X.) 15 yards to the OSU44, 1ST DOWN MINN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
70.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 16 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
70.8%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+6
70.8%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
70.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
70.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 2 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
70.1%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.4%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.9%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
75.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
74.6%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
75.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Drew Wolitarsky at the Minn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -19 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-23
76.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 23 yards to the Minn 4 TEAM fumbled,Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 33
OWN 4
-2
75.5%
Kobe McCrary run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 2Similar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 35
OWN 2
+6
74.8%
Kobe McCrary run for 6 yds to the Minn 8Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 29
OWN 8
0
74.0%
Ryan Santoso punt for 54 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for no gain to the OrgSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:0226% → 41%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
74.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 5 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
73.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+8
74.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 8 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
72.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 9 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+10
73.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 10 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
59.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 30 yds for a TD MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13FG
12 plays · 35 yds · 1:0468% → 70%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
68.1%
Rodney Smith run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
70.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brian SmithSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
69.9%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+5
68.1%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nick Hart for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+7
67.2%
Rodney Smith run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
69.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
69.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nick Hart, broken up by Baker PritchardSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+4
68.2%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 28 MINNESOTA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
70.3%
Emmit Carpenter 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:4731% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.7%
Tim Cook run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
68.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
68.7%
Seth Collins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
68.9%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by Adekunle AyindeSimilar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
69.3%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
70.6%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
71.3%
Nick Porebski punt for 33 yds, downed at the Minn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
70.9%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+9
71.4%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 9 yds to the Minn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
72.6%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rashad Still, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
71.8%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
71.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Devin ChappellSimilar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 8
OWN 47
-5
70.5%
MINNESOTA Penalty, false start (Blake Cashman) to the Minn 42Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 13
OWN 42
+4
69.5%
Ryan Santoso punt for 44 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 4 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
69.4%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+6
69.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 6 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+11
69.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Noah Togiai for 11 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Seth Collins, broken up by Jalen MyrickSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
68.7%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+7
68.3%
Darell Garretson run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
66.3%
MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (Jonathan Celestin) to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
65.9%
Darell Garretson sacked by Steven Richardson for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 45Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+6
67.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 6 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 11
OPP 39
0
67.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by Duke McGheeSimilar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 11
OPP 39
0
69.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17SF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:3170% → 68%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
70.4%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds to the Minn 7Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
68.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by Minn for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
66.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+3
67.4%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
67.9%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
69.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 41 yds , Drew Wolitarsky returns for no gain to the Minn 25 Drew Wolitarsky fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Ryan NavarroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:3339% → 64%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
61.0%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
61.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Paul Lucas for 11 yds to the Minn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
61.0%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
36.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Tim Cook for 12 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:1946% → 74%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
46.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 10 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
46.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brian SmithSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
45.9%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Drew Wolitarsky, broken up by Manase HungaluSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+17
44.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 17 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
50.1%
Mitch Leidner run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+6
51.2%
Rodney Smith run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
51.0%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 25 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
52.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
52.3%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Nate WozniakSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+10
49.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
52.3%
Mitch Leidner run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.7%
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
65.4%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
65.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
66.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by Damarius TravisSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
68.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 51 yds, downed at the Minn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+27
67.5%
Rodney Smith run for 27 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
71.3%
Rodney Smith run for no gain to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
70.5%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Nate Wozniak for 6 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+8
71.2%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 8 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
72.1%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brian Smith, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
71.8%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Rodney SmithSimilar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
70.5%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Brian SmithSimilar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
67.3%
Ryan Santoso punt for 30 yds, downed at the OrgSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:0034% → 38%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
65.9%
Paul Lucas run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 11
OWN 7
0
66.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by Kamal MartinSimilar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+27
67.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 12 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, personal foul (Tai'yon Devers) to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
63.1%
Tim Cook run for no gain to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-8
63.9%
Darell Garretson sacked by Andrew Stelter for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 18
OWN 26
+22
66.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 22 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
59.5%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
59.0%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
59.6%
Seth Collins run for 2 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
61.9%
Tim Cook run for no gain to the Minn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:1870% → 97%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
70.4%
Rodney Smith run for 3 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+19
70.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 19 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
73.7%
Mitch Leidner pass incomplete to Colton BeebeSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
73.6%
Rodney Smith run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+17
71.8%
Mitch Leidner pass complete to Drew Wolitarsky for 17 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
73.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+8
73.8%
Mitch Leidner run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
90.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Ryan Nall, broken up by KiAnte HardinSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
91.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
90.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+1
91.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for 1 yd to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:2097% → 97%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 17
OPP 40
-6
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 23
OPP 46
+2
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the MINNESOTA 41 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Brandon Arnold) to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:30
Darell Garretson pass complete to Tim Cook for 12 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
-24.7
TD · Q4 1:27
Mitch Leidner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+22.8
TD · Q4 13:11
Rodney Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emmit Carpenter KICK)
+21.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com