2016 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2016 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadSUU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreSUU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:52 · Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 57 yds , Brady Measom returns for 12 yds to the SoUth 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- MISSED FG · Q1 2:41: Andy Phillips 36 yd FG MISSED — SUU win probability +1.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:41: Troy McCormick run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:11: Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 2 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +1.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 6:33: Troy Williams pass complete to Tyrone Smith for 12 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST down — UTAH win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:27: Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 57 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9SUU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 10:38UTAH 4th & 8 at SUU 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.9%−<0.126% to convertField goalTheir call97.0%90% to makePunt96.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 2:41UTAH 4th & 9 at SUU 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call95.6%79% to makePunt95.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00SUU 4th & 9 at SUU 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q2 14:52UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 39, up 3Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:51SUU 4th & 9 at SUU 11, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q2 8:52UTAH 4th & 20 at UTAH 30, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.2%−0.59% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.7%average punt
- Q2 3:35SUU 4th & 3 at SUU 27, down 10Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 15:00SUU 4th & 4 at SUU 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q3 13:42UTAH 4th & 17 at UTAH 41, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.914% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q3 10:45SUU 4th & 16 at UTAH 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.416% to convertField goal3.4%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q3 3:48SUU 4th & 7 at SUU 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q3 2:32UTAH 4th & 14 at UTAH 23, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q4 15:00SUU 4th & 8 at SUU 24, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q4 14:38UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 34, up 17Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:29SUU 4th & 15 at SUU 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q4 9:27SUU 4th & 11 at SUU 24, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 8:08UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 36, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q4 7:02SUU 4th & 5 at SUU 24, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q4 5:15UTAH 4th & 1 at SUU 36, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%71% to convertField goal99.2%−0.242% to makePunt99.2%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q2 3:41UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:11UTAH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:27UTAH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTAHDrive 1FG11 plays · 67 yds · 4:2298% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.2%
Troy Williams pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 4 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+52
98.2%
Troy Williams pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 52 yds to the SoUth 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 0
0
98.2%
Williams, Troy pass incomplete to Wilson, Siaosi (Jarmaine Doubs), PENALTY SUU pass interference off-setting, PENALTY UTAH ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
98.2%
Troy Williams pass complete to Joe Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the SoUth 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 2FUMBLE3 plays · 42 yds · 0:002% → 2%
UTAHDrive 3MISSED FG15 plays · 49 yds · 7:2498% → 97%
Q1 10:05
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+17
97.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Troy McCormick for 17 yds to the SoUth 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
97.7%
Troy Williams sacked by Anu Poleo for a loss of 9 yards to the Utah 43Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+8
97.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tyrone Smith for 8 yds to the SoUth 49Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+19
97.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 19 yds to the SoUth 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+3
97.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Kyle Fulks for 3 yds to the SoUth 32Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+5
97.6%
Williams, Troy rush for 4 yards to the SUU28 (Josh Thornton), PENALTY SUU offside (Jarmaine Doubs) 5 yards to the SUU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+8
97.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 8 yds to the SoUth 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
97.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Kyle Fulks for a loss of 2 yards Kyle Fulks fumbled, forced by Taylor Nelson,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 2:414% → 4%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
96.4%
McCoy Hill pass complete to Steven Wroblewski for 12 yds to the SoUth 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-10
96.3%
[NH], Tannon Pedersen rush for 7 yards to the UTAH44 (Barton, Cody), PENALTY SUU holding (Austin Mikkelso) 10 yards to the SUU39, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
SUUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 11:51
4TH & 9
OWN 11
+10
95.4%
Tate Lewis punt for 59 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 10 yds to the Utah 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -10 yds · 1:3095% → 94%
Q2 10:22
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-10
94.6%
Williams, Troy pass complete to Handley, Harris for 17 yards to the SUU43 (Tyler Collet), PENALTY UTAH holding 10 yards to the UTAH30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 20
OWN 30
+12
94.1%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 57 yds , Brady Measom returns for 12 yds to the SoUth 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 8INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
UTAHDrive 9TD12 plays · 53 yds · 4:4995% → 96%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
94.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Troy McCormick for 5 yds to the SoUth 48Similar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
94.8%
[NH], PENALTY UTAH false start (Dielman, J.J.) 5 yards to the SUU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+18
94.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 18 yds to the SoUth 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
95.7%
McCoy Hill pass complete to James Felila for 4 yds to the SoUth 27Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
95.6%
McCoy Hill pass incomplete to James Felila SOUTHERN UTAH Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+35
95.8%
Tate Lewis punt for 45 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 35 yds to the SoUth 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11TD4 plays · 37 yds · 1:0096% → 98%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+33
95.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Troy McCormick for 33 yds to the SoUth 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.8%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Evan Moeai, broken up by Mike NeedhamSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 2 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 12END OF HALF6 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 1:04
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+6
96.9%
McCoy Hill pass complete to Logan Parker for 6 yds to the SoUth 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
96.8%
McCoy Hill pass complete to Raysean Pringle for a loss of 3 yards to the SoUth 27Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 13
OWN 27
-6
97.0%
McCoy Hill sacked by Kylie Fitts for a loss of 6 yards to the SoUth 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.9%
Tate Lewis punt for 41 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for no gain to the Utah 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q3 13:42
3RD & 13
OWN 45
-4
96.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Joe Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 15PUNT12 plays · 40 yds · 0:003% → 4%
UTAHDrive 16FUMBLE8 plays · 63 yds · 0:0097% → 98%
Q3 6:33
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+12
97.3%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tyrone Smith for 12 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
97.6%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Harrison Handley, broken up by Kyle HannemannSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+21
97.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 21 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
97.6%
Joe Williams run for 2 yds to the SoUth 37 Joe Williams fumbled, recovered by SoUth Jarmaine Doubs , return for 3 yds to the SoUth 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 3:48
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
97.2%
Tate Lewis punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Boobie Hobbs at the Utah 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
SUUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:233% → 3%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
97.3%
Tannon Pedersen pass incomplete to Steven Wroblewski, broken up by Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+1
97.4%
Tate Lewis punt for 41 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 1 yd to the Utah 25 UTAH Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Utah 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q4 14:38
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+11
97.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tyrone Smith for 11 yds to the Utah 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:013% → 2%
UTAHDrive 22TD2 plays · 57 yds · 0:1398% → 99%
SUUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
UTAHDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SUUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 26END OF GAME10 plays · 45 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Terrell Burgess for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.6%
Tyler Huntley pass incomplete to Siaosi Wilson, broken up by Lloyd StephensSimilar
Q4 5:15
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+11
99.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Wallace Gonzalez for 11 yds to the SoUth 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
99.6%
Tyler Huntley pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 8 yds to the SoUth 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:11
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 2 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q4 9:27
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 57 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
+1.3
MISSED FG · Q1 2:41
Andy Phillips 36 yd FG MISSED
-1.2