Try the model
TENN

Tennessee 34 at Vanderbilt 45

VAN
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.9VAN 36.0%Tommy Openshaw 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 24 · Q2 3:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:50 · Tommy Openshaw 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior−19.2Home team on offense+1.8Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:57: Ralph Webb run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +7.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:54: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 27 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +9.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:49: Khari Blasingame run for 12 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +22.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 12:15: Darrius Sims run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +27.1 pts (now 68%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:06: Ralph Webb run for 28 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +14.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00VAN 4th & 1 at TENN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:36VAN 4th & 14 at VAN 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:24TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:33TENN 4th & 4 at VAN 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:50VAN 4th & 7 at TENN 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−6.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:54TENN 4th & 15 at VAN 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:11VAN 4th & 8 at TENN 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:57TENN 4th & 7 at VAN 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.5%−8.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:46TENN 4th & 17 at VAN 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−7.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−14.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:37TENN 4th & 4 at VAN 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−1.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:15TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:49VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:40TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:59TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:30VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:57VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:54TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:49VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:15VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:06VAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
20.0%
Ralph Webb run for 11 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
20.0%
Sam Dobbs run for 5 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-5
20.0%
Ralph Webb rush for 2 yards to the VANDY39 (Barnett, D.), PENALTY VANDY illegal formation 5 yards to the VANDY32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
20.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph Webb, broken up by Stephen GriffinSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
20.0%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, PENALTY UT pass interference (Williams, P.) 15 yards to the VANDY47, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
20.0%
Darrius Sims run for 9 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
20.0%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
20.0%
Dallas Rivers run for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
20.0%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:5078% → 79%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
21.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 9 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
21.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
21.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 25 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
21.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
21.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 14 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2621% → 25%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
21.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 18 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
21.7%
Dallas Rivers run for 1 yd to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
21.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete, broken up by Derek BarnettSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+10
21.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 10 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
21.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 28 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
25.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Bailey McElwain for 18 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0976% → 79%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
23.7%
Jauan Jennings run for 2 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
23.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 6 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+27
23.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 27 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
23.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+16
23.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 16 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
21.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 21 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
22.6%
Darrius Sims run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 18Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-2
22.5%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 13
OWN 16
-5
22.2%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 11Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 18
OWN 11
+4
22.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 4 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 14
OWN 15
0
22.1%
Sam Loy punt for 33 yds, downed at the Vandy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:5978% → 78%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
21.8%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+14
21.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 14 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
21.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+11
22.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 11 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+5
21.8%
John Kelly run for 5 yds to the Vandy 17 John Kelly fumbled, forced by Charles Wright, recovered by Vandy Zach CunninghamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
23.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Micah Abernathy return for no gain to the Vandy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:2378% → 82%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
21.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 26 yds to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:2119% → 26%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
19.2%
Dallas Rivers run for 7 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+45
19.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 45 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
20.4%
Dallas Rivers run for 3 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
20.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+8
20.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the Tenn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
20.4%
Darrius Sims run for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+20
26.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 20 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 8 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
23.2%
John Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 31Similar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
23.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 1 yd to the Tenn 32Similar
Q2 10:24
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
24.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:4824% → 35%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+76
24.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 76 yds to the Tenn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
27.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb Scott, QB hurry by Taylor, D., PENALTY VANDY ineligible downfield on pass (Nathan Marcus) 5 yards to the UT9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
35.1%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1473% → 72%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
27.4%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
27.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh Malone, broken up by Torren McGasterSimilar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+2
28.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 2 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q2 6:33
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+41
28.0%
Aaron Medley 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:4329% → 36%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
28.9%
Ralph Webb run for 17 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
30.6%
Dallas Rivers run for 2 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+40
30.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 40 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
32.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Darrius Sims for no gain to the Tenn 16Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
32.1%
Darrius Sims run for 3 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
31.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
36.0%
Tommy Openshaw 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:5268% → 80%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
31.9%
[SH], Dobbs, J. pass complete to Kamara, A. for 8 yards to the UT36, out-of-bounds (Josh Smith), PENALTY UT holding (Croom, J.) 10 yards to the UT18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 20
OWN 18
+2
32.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 2 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+14
32.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 14 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+21
32.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 21 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
29.8%
John Kelly run for 8 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
29.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for no gain to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+10
29.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 10 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
20.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 27 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15END OF HALF
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:4325% → 26%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.6%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
25.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 16 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
25.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
24.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 6 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-11
25.8%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 11 yards to the Vandy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0079% → 76%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
50
+1
21.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+13
21.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 13 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
21.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 32 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, recovered by Tenn Joshua Dobbs , return for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-2
20.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-7
21.6%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Adam Butler for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 41Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 15
OPP 41
0
23.8%
Trevor Daniel punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
24.3%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 10Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 11
OWN 10
-2
24.3%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 8Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 13
OWN 8
+14
23.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 14 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
24.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 16 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
25.6%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 37Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
25.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared Pinkney, broken up by Cortez McDowellSimilar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+14
23.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 14 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.5%
Trent Sherfield pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
26.9%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
26.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
24.4%
Sam Loy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18FG
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:4977% → 81%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+28
23.5%
John Kelly run for 13 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
21.4%
John Kelly run for 7 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
21.1%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+12
21.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 12 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+28
21.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 28 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
20.5%
Alvin Kamara run for no gain to the Vandy 9Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
20.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Vandy 7Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
21.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Ethan Wolf, broken up by Zach CunninghamSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
18.9%
Aaron Medley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:0419% → 44%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
18.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
18.3%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+8
17.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
18.9%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+13
19.0%
Ralph Webb run for 13 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
20.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Nathan MarcusSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
19.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+11
18.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 11 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
21.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 32 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
43.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 12 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:0066% → 69%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
33.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 16 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
32.4%
John Kelly run for 11 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
30.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 49 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, forced by Zach Cunningham, recovered by Vandy Arnold TarpleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:4541% → 68%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
41.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
40.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 5 yards to the UT44 (Foreman, M.), PENALTY UT offside (Barnett, D.) 5 yards to the UT44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
41.7%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
41.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 16 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
44.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Bailey McElwainSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
43.9%
Khari Blasingame run for 4 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+16
41.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 16 yds to the Tenn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.4%
Darrius Sims run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22MISSED FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:2040% → 34%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
59.6%
Alvin Kamara run for no gain to the Tenn 16Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+12
60.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 12 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
59.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+11
56.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 11 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
55.0%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+9
54.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 9 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
53.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 17 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
51.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 14 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
51.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-6
52.2%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Josh Smith and Adam Butler for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 17
OPP 19
0
57.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Tyler ByrdSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+37
65.6%
Aaron Medley 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:4074% → 93%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
73.7%
Darrius Sims run for 2 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
73.4%
Darrius Sims run for 7 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+39
73.2%
Dallas Rivers run for 39 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
78.6%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+28
93.2%
Ralph Webb run for 28 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 2:228% → 6%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
91.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 14 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
90.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 2 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
90.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 7 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+12
90.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 12 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
90.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 18 yds to the Vandy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
90.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 1 yd to the Vandy 18Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+1
90.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to John Kelly for 1 yd to the Vandy 17Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+4
91.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+1
94.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 1 yd to the Vandy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:1397% → 97%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
96.5%
Ralph Webb run for 14 yds to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
97.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
97.2%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-2
97.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:15
Darrius Sims run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
+27.1
TD · Q3 0:49
Khari Blasingame run for 12 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
+22.5
TD · Q4 4:06
Ralph Webb run for 28 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
+14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com