2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:15 · Hayden Hurst run for 2 yds to the SCaro 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:08: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 34 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:52: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:05: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 11 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:06: Wayne Gallman run for 8 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:24: Deebo Samuel pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 33 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 14:32SC 4th & 10 at SC 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q1 12:09CLEM 4th & 10 at SC 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snapGo for it92.9%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call92.9%72% to makePunt92.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:42SC 4th & 8 at SC 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q1 6:00CLEM 4th & 1 at SC 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.4%71% to convertField goal92.2%−0.175% to makePunt91.8%−0.6average punt
- Q1 4:15SC 4th & 5 at SC 30, down 14Close callWent for it · 6.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.9%average punt
- Q1 0:30SC 4th & 17 at SC 7, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.3%−0.412% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q2 14:15CLEM 4th & 6 at SC 39, up 21Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.5%40% to convertField goal95.3%−0.236% to makePuntTheir call95.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:47SC 4th & 6 at SC 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q2 5:21SC 4th & 13 at SC 23, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 0:47SC 4th & 4 at CLEM 43, down 28Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%48% to convertField goal0.9%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call0.8%−0.5average punt
- Q3 3:28SC 4th & 18 at SC 22, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 0:36CLEM 4th & 25 at SC 39, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.17% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 10:13SC 4th & 4 at CLEM 29, down 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%48% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.158% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 6:00CLEM 4th & 8 at SC 25, up 42Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.133% to convertField goal99.9%66% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:08CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:52CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:05CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:06CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:08CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:44CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:24SC Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:38CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:07CLEM Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:185% → 5%
Q1 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
95.2%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo Samuel, broken up by Ryan CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2MISSED FG9 plays · 46 yds · 2:1695% → 95%
Q1 13:40
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+10
95.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 10 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
95.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 16 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
95.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 6 yds to the SCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.7%
Jake Bentley pass intercepted Jadar Johnson return for no gain to the SCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD3 plays · 47 yds · 0:3795% → 95%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
94.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 34 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:185% → 5%
CLEMDrive 6TD11 plays · 65 yds · 3:4395% → 95%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
94.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 20 yds to the CLEMSON 45 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+6
94.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 6 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
94.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
95.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7DOWNS6 plays · 7 yds · 1:205% → 5%
Q1 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
94.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 3 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0295% → 96%
Q1 2:05
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
96.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 11 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:154% → 4%
CLEMDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 1:0096% → 97%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
96.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 12 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:134% → 3%
CLEMDrive 12INT6 plays · 48 yds · 1:4097% → 98%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
97.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 5 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+11
97.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 11 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
97.4%
Watson, Deshaun pass incomplete to Williams, Mike, PENALTY SOCAROLINA pass interference (King, Jamarcus) 15 yards to the SOCAROLINA47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+17
97.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 17 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.5%
Deshaun Watson pass intercepted Bryson Allen-Williams return for no gain to the SCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 3:343% → 3%
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
96.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for no gain to the SCaro 11Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+15
96.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for 15 yds to the SCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-3
96.8%
Jake Bentley sacked by Dexter Lawrence for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 23Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 13
OWN 23
+28
96.9%
Sean Kelly punt for 50 yds , Artavis Scott returns for 28 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14TD6 plays · 45 yds · 2:0998% → 99%
Q2 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+17
97.8%
Ray-Ray McCloud run for 9 yds to the SCaro 16 for a 1ST down SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jonathan Walton) to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q2 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
99.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 6 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+15
99.3%
Bentley, Jake pass incomplete to Edwards, Bryan (Carter, Ryan), PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Carter, Ryan) 15 yards to the CLEMSON49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOCAROLINA.Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
99.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 3 yds to the Clem 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16TD6 plays · 80 yds · 0:3799% → 100%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 9 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+30
99.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 30 yds to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
99.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 19 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
99.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 6 yds to the SCaro 16Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
99.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 16 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18TD7 plays · 66 yds · 2:0699% → 100%
SCDrive 19TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:160% → 1%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 19 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
99.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Deebo Samuel for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 48Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+15
99.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Bryan Edwards for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (Christian Wilkins) to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
99.5%
Deebo Samuel pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 33 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD16 plays · 80 yds · 6:27100% → 100%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Diondre Overton for 3 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+25
99.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 25 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
99.7%
Watson, Deshaun pass complete to Cain, Deon for 30 yards to the SOCAROLINA0, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Cain, Deon) 15 yards to the SOCAROLINA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 25
OPP 45
+14
99.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 14 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+13
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 13 yds to the SCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+7
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the SCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Deebo Samuel, broken up by Marcus EdmondSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+10
99.8%
Brandon McIlwain sacked by Ben Boulware for a loss of 21 yards to the SCaro 22 Brandon McIlwain fumbled, recovered by SCaro Rico Dowdle , return for 10 yds to the SCaro 22Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 18
OWN 22
+30
99.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Artavis Scott at the CLEMSON 38 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Clem 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
Q3 1:25
3RD & 15
OPP 29
-10
99.8%
Nick Schuessler sacked by Marquavius Lewis for a loss of 10 yards to the SCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23DOWNS13 plays · 64 yds · 5:070% → 0%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
99.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 14 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to A.J. Turner for 3 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 3 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 4
OPP 29
-3
99.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Rico Dowdle for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24TD16 plays · 68 yds · 6:38100% → 100%
Q4 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+11
99.9%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Cornell Powell for 11 yds to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
99.9%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 11 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.9%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Cannon Smith for 3 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25END OF GAME9 plays · 44 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:05
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 11 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 3:06
Wayne Gallman run for 8 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q1 5:52
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+1