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ARK

Arkansas 24 at Missouri 28

MIZ
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:58 · Toby Baker punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Johnathon Johnson at the Misso 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior−4.6Home team on offense−5.3Score differential−3.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:05: Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK) — ARK win probability +7.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:08: Adam McFain 33 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +5.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:53: Nate Strong run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +6.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:07: Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 67 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +19.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:48: Nate Strong run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +22.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:58MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:27ARK 4th & 24 at ARK 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:35ARK 4th & 1 at MIZ 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    65.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:05MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:59MIZ 4th & 28 at MIZ 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:08ARK 4th & 9 at MIZ 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:54MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 7, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:58ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:42ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 39, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:52MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−2.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:12ARK 4th & 5 at MIZ 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    36.5%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−17.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:08MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−4.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:54ARK 4th & 20 at MIZ 20, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.6 ptsWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%−5.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−12.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:05ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:13ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:05ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:53MIZ Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:07MIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:48MIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:5566% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+66
34.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 66 yds to the Misso 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 7 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
34.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
34.1%
Corey Fatony punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
50
+3
34.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 3 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
34.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+9
34.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
34.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy Sprinkle, broken up by Eric BeiselSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
34.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Dominique Reed) to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
34.1%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 15
OPP 42
-9
34.2%
Austin Allen sacked by Donavin Newsom for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 24
OWN 49
0
34.3%
Toby Baker punt for 39 yds , Johnathon Johnson returns for no gain to the Misso 10 Johnathon Johnson fumbled, recovered by Misso Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 0:5734% → 37%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
34.3%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 10Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+82
34.3%
Johnathon Johnson run for 82 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
37.0%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds Ish Witter fumbled, recovered by Misso J'Mon Moore for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:2264% → 67%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
36.2%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
36.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Rawleigh Williams IIISimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+19
36.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 19 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
35.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
35.7%
Jared Cornelius run for 5 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
35.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Hayden Johnson for 7 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
35.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for no gain to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
35.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+1
36.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
35.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 8 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+30
33.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 30 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
34.5%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+11
34.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 11 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
35.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
34.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for no gain to the Misso 41Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
34.5%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Moore, J'Mon, PENALTY AR offside (Bijhon Jackson) 5 yards to the MU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+1
35.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 1 yd to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 4:05
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
34.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
17 plays · 91 yds · 9:0066% → 75%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
34.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+9
34.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 9 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+6
34.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
34.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
33.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 5 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+6
33.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 6 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
33.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 4 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
33.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
33.3%
Austin Allen sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+16
34.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 16 yds to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
33.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
33.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+4
32.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+25
32.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 25 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
32.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Misso 5Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
26.8%
Nate Strong run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
50
0
27.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
50
+3
27.3%
Nate Strong run for 3 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-21
27.2%
Drew Lock sacked by Brooks Ellis for a loss of 21 yards to the MISSOURI 32 MISSOURI Penalty, intentional grounding (Drew Lock) to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 28
OWN 32
+15
25.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 43 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 15 yds to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 5:3676% → 85%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
24.3%
T.J. Hammonds run for 3 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
24.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
50
+8
24.1%
T.J. Hammonds run for 8 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-1
24.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+16
24.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 16 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
24.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 8 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+1
24.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Misso 18Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
21.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Misso 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
21.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
21.3%
Drew Morgan run for 8 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 2
OPP 8
-7
21.7%
Jared Cornelius run for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 15Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
15.2%
Adam McFain 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0020% → 22%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
19.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 3 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
20.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 9 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
20.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 25 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
21.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the Ark 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ark Dwayne EugeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11MISSED FG
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:3285% → 85%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
14.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
50
0
15.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Josh AugustaSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
50
+20
15.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 20 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+48
15.1%
Adam McFain 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:5720% → 28%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
19.5%
Johnathon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 36Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
18.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+48
18.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 48 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
21.4%
Drew Lock sacked by McTelvin Agim for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 15
OPP 21
0
20.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for no gain to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+18
19.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 18 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
21.9%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Ark 2Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
21.4%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Ark 2Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.2%
Nate Strong run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13INT
16 plays · 66 yds · 4:5074% → 76%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
26.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+21
26.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 21 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
25.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 48Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+10
25.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 10 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-5
25.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+14
25.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 14 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
24.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 3 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-9
24.7%
Austin Allen sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 9 yards to the Misso 39Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+17
25.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 17 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
23.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+7
23.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds to the Misso 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
23.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Misso 8Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
23.6%
Austin Allen run for 5 yds to the Misso 3Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+4
24.3%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Cale Garrett return for 4 yds to the Misso 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
6 plays · 96 yds · 1:4723% → 43%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
23.0%
Nate Strong run for 1 yd to the Misso 5Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+2
22.9%
Nate Strong run for 2 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
21.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios Mason, broken up by Ryan PulleySimilar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 7
OWN 7
+14
21.4%
Anthony Sherrils run for 14 yds to the Misso 21 Anthony Sherrils fumbled, forced by Josh Williams, recovered by Misso for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
23.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 12 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
42.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 67 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 59%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
36.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
36.6%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Dominique Reed, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
38.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
40.6%
Toby Baker punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Johnathon Johnson at the Misso 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:4042% → 74%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
42.1%
Nate Strong run for 8 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 2
OWN 27
0
44.7%
Nate Strong run for no gain to the Misso 27Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+1
41.4%
Nate Strong run for 1 yd to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+5
41.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
43.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
43.1%
Richaud Floyd run for 5 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+49
44.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 49 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
51.2%
Nate Strong run for 11 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.3%
Nate Strong run for 1 yd to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.7%
Nate Strong run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
65.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
63.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
63.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
66.7%
Toby Baker punt for 60 yds, downed at the Misso 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
68.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 7 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 3
OWN 8
0
68.3%
Nate Strong run for no gain to the Misso 8Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+3
66.7%
Nate Strong run for 3 yds to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
69.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 9 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 1
OWN 20
0
69.8%
Nate Strong run for no gain to the Misso 20Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+5
68.3%
Nate Strong run for 5 yds to the Misso 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
69.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
67.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+3
66.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 34 , Drew Morgan returns for 3 yds to the Ark 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19INT
7 plays · 61 yds · 0:0031% → 33%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+52
68.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 52 yds to the Misso 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
61.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Rawleigh Williams III, broken up by Charles HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+10
61.8%
Austin Allen run for 10 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
61.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
61.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 2Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
64.3%
Austin Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 5Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+10
66.9%
Austin Allen pass intercepted, touchback. Aarion Penton return for no gain MISSOURI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Aarion Penton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5484% → 84%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
84.4%
Nate Strong run for no gain to the Misso 10Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
84.2%
Nate Strong run for 3 yds to the Misso 13Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
85.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
84.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Drew Morgan at the Ark 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 25 yds · 1:5919% → 11%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
81.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 16 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
78.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+12
78.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 12 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
76.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete, PENALTY AR holding (Brian Wallace) 10 yards to the MU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+23
80.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 23 yds to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
76.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds to the Misso 12Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+3
73.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
73.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan, PENALTY AR holding (Dan Skipper) 10 yards to the MU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
-1
75.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 20Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
0
77.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon Hatcher, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
80.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy Sprinkle, broken up by Donavin NewsomSimilar
Q4 0:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
-17
88.7%
Austin Allen sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 17 yards to the Misso 37 ARKANSAS Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
95.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:48
Nate Strong run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+22.4
TD · Q3 2:07
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 67 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+19.6
TD · Q2 8:05
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com