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UK

Kentucky 41 at Louisville 38

LOU
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:37 · Grant McKinniss punt for 44 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 10 yds to the Lvile 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+42.5Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:58: Benny Snell Jr. 18 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +9.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:19: Jeremy Smith 3 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick) — LOU win probability +9.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:19: Dorian Baker 35 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +24.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:44: Lamar Jackson 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick) — LOU win probability +28.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:12: Austin MacGinnis 47 Yd Field Goal — UK win probability +38.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:19LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37UK 4th & 6 at UK 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:54LOU 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:03LOU 4th & 3 at UK 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:33UK 4th & 3 at UK 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:13LOU 4th & 2 at UK 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:39LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13UK 4th & 4 at UK 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−1.3
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:05UK 4th & 4 at LOU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:43UK 4th & 8 at LOU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−8.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:32UK 4th & 7 at UK 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−3.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:12UK 4th & 3 at LOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−8.3
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−25.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:57LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:39UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:07UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:54LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:09LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:13UK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:58UK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:19LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:19UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:44LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 1:5395% → 95%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+42
95.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 42 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
95.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 20 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
95.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-1
94.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 19Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
95.0%
Lamar Jackson 19 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
94.7%
Garrett Johnson 75 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0795% → 94%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
94.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
94.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
94.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
94.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
94.4%
Mason King punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:286% → 6%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.3%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
94.2%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+14
94.1%
Stephen Johnson run for 14 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
93.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+10
93.7%
Grant McKinniss punt for 44 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 10 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:2694% → 93%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
93.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 18 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
93.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
93.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+1
93.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 4
50
0
93.3%
Mason King punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:337% → 9%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
93.2%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 14Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
93.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 6 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+11
93.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 11 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
92.7%
Benny Snell Jr. pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
92.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+43
92.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 28 yds to the LOUISVILLE 41 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dee Smith) to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
92.1%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Mosier) to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+36
90.8%
Stanley Williams 36 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:0191% → 92%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
91.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
90.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+5
90.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
90.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+16
90.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 16 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
90.6%
Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+7
90.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
90.4%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Mike Edwards and Josh Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 18
OPP 38
0
89.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+15
89.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 15 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+5
89.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
92.1%
Reggie Bonnafon 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:059% → 10%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
90.9%
Jojo Kemp pass complete to Jeff Badet for 14 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
90.3%
Jojo Kemp run for 6 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
89.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
89.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+21
89.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the LOUISVILLE 19 KENTUCKY Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Kash Daniel) to the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:0891% → 90%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
90.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+20
90.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 20 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
91.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 14 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
91.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Kent 24Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
90.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+14
90.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 14 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
90.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Kent 2Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
90.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Kent 1Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
90.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 2Similar
Q2 8:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
90.2%
Blanton Creque 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1511% → 11%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
89.4%
Stephen Johnson run for 19 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
88.4%
Williams, Stanley rush for 8 yards to the LOUISVILLE38, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Asafo-Adjei, George) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+2
88.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+3
88.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+18
88.6%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted Trumaine Washington return for 18 yds to the Kent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:2090% → 93%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-12
89.9%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Jordan Jones for a loss of 12 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 22
OWN 40
+14
88.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 14 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+21
89.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 21 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
89.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 26Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+2
89.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
92.5%
Cole Hikutini 24 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:358% → 13%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
92.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 24Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+13
92.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Stacy Thomas) to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
86.9%
Garrett Johnson 63 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2588% → 87%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-11
87.6%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Naquez Pringle and Courtney Miggins for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 21
OWN 21
+17
86.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 17 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+2
87.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
86.8%
Mason King punt for 57 yds, downed at the Kent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:2113% → 13%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
87.0%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+5
86.5%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 11Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 2
OWN 11
-6
86.9%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Cole Mosier) to the Kent 5Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+4
87.0%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
87.1%
Grant McKinniss punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0488% → 88%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
87.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+21
87.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 21 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3214% → 28%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
84.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+28
85.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 28 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
83.4%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
83.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+16
83.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 16 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
81.5%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
80.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 3 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+18
71.9%
Benny Snell Jr. 18 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2675% → 86%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+61
75.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 61 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
79.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
78.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+5
76.8%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.4%
Jeremy Smith 3 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 6:2217% → 29%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
82.9%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+17
82.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 17 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
80.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 4 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
79.3%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 5
50
+15
79.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 15 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
77.3%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+2
76.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+3
77.0%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+11
79.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 11 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
75.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
75.7%
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
76.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+35
70.8%
Austin MacGinnis 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
74.7%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Mike Edwards return for no gain to the Kent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:5631% → 61%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
69.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-1
66.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
67.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
65.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
65.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
63.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+35
38.9%
Dorian Baker 35 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21INT
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:1950% → 52%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
49.5%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+13
47.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
50.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+26
50.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 26 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
51.8%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Blake McClain return for 8 yds to the Kent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5860% → 67%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
40.1%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 3Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 15
OWN 3
+14
39.4%
Jojo Kemp run for 14 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
38.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
36.1%
Jojo Kemp run for no gain to the Kent 19Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
33.3%
Jojo Kemp run for 3 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
32.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 7
OWN 22
-4
33.5%
Grant McKinniss punt for 29 yds , Traveon Samuel returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:3940% → 72%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+33
40.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 33 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
44.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+13
43.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 13 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
43.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.0%
Lamar Jackson 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:4839% → 47%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
61.0%
Johnson, Stephen pass incomplete to Badet, Jeff, PENALTY LOUISVILLE roughing passer (Brown, DeAngelo) 15 yards to the KENTUCKY40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & -5
OWN 40
+1
58.3%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
54.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 16 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
51.9%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+2
53.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 44 Benny Snell Jr. fumbled, forced by Chris Williams, recovered by Lvile Chris WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25FUMBLE
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:5067% → 67%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
67.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
68.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
68.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
67.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
68.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 13 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
68.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Tobijah Hughley) to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 15
OPP 25
-3
67.3%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 18
OPP 28
+5
65.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 5 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+14
62.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 14 yds to the Kent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
67.2%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 10 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Kent Courtney LoveSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 1:2348% → 93%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
52.3%
Jojo Kemp run for 9 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+29
50.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 29 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
45.2%
Stephen Johnson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
43.0%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
40.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 5 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
43.5%
Jojo Kemp run for no gain to the Lvile 29Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
7.3%
Austin MacGinnis 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
17.1%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Mike Edwards return for no gain to the Kent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:12
Austin MacGinnis 47 Yd Field Goal
-38
TD · Q4 7:44
Lamar Jackson 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)
+28.6
TD · Q4 14:19
Dorian Baker 35 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)
-24.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com