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AUB

Auburn 12 at Alabama 30

ALA
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:30 · Kevin Phillips punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+21.5Home team on offense+2.9Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:49: Damien Harris 17 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +2.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:30: Daniel Carlson 39 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +2.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 9:58: Jalen Hurts 4 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +5.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:16: ArDarius Stewart 38 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +6.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 2:11: Daniel Carlson 27 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +1.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:29ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:31AUB 4th & 13 at ALA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:40ALA 4th & 4 at AUB 11, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.8%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:17AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:22AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:38AUB 4th & 4 at ALA 35, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.7%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:19ALA 4th & 14 at ALA 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:03AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:30AUB 4th & 4 at ALA 22, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:16ALA 4th & 4 at AUB 7, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:30AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:20AUB 4th & 7 at ALA 35, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:16ALA 4th & 4 at AUB 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:11AUB 4th & 8 at ALA 10, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:46ALA 4th & 13 at AUB 17, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−3.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:00AUB 4th & 4 at ALA 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:22ALA 4th & 1 at AUB 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:49ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:58ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:16ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1689% → 89%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
89.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 12 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
89.0%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
88.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+58
88.7%
JK Scott punt for 36 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 58 yds to the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5211% → 12%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
88.6%
Jeremy Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-3
88.5%
Chandler Cox pass complete to John Franklin III for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 24Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 13
OPP 24
0
88.4%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+42
88.4%
Daniel Carlson 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 6:4388% → 87%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Trevon Diggs for 7 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
88.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
88.1%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+17
87.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 17 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
87.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 8 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+5
87.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 5 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
87.7%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Aub 47Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+19
87.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 19 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
87.4%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 30 Jalen Hurts fumbled, recovered by Alab Jalen HurtsSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+8
87.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 8 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+5
87.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Montravius Adams) to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
87.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 9 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 1
OPP 8
-7
87.0%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 15Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+4
86.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 4 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
86.5%
Adam Griffith 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0814% → 14%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
86.1%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Eli Stove for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+2
85.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
85.9%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 9
OWN 24
+8
86.0%
Kevin Phillips punt for 39 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 8 yds to the Alab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:1686% → 88%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
86.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+39
85.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 39 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
88.1%
Damien Harris 17 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1813% → 12%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
87.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
87.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
87.7%
Kevin Phillips punt for 38 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for no gain to the Alab 34 Trevon Diggs fumbled, recovered by Alab Trevon Diggs , return for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 26 ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Tony Brown) to the Alab 13 (Tony Brown ejected for Targeting)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1987% → 87%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
87.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 7 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+12
87.5%
Damien Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 32 Damien Harris fumbled, recovered by Alab Damien Harris for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
87.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
87.4%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted Daniel Thomas return for no gain to the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0814% → 15%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
86.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
86.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-3
86.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+52
85.2%
Daniel Carlson 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:0585% → 84%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
85.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Touching (-5 Yards) to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 15
OWN 16
-4
84.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 12Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 19
OWN 12
+10
84.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 10 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-5
84.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Jonah Williams) to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 14
OWN 17
0
84.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Trevon DiggsSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 14
OWN 17
0
83.7%
JK Scott punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1116% → 14%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
84.1%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
84.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
85.2%
Jeremy Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
85.8%
Kevin Phillips punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:2784% → 84%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
84.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Alab 23 Jalen Hurts fumbled, recovered by Alab Jonah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+1
84.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 1 yd to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+4
83.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Carl Lawson) to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
83.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
84.5%
ArDarius Stewart pass complete to O.J. Howard for 12 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+20
85.0%
Damien Harris run for 20 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
85.3%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 38Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
85.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+29
84.4%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted Daniel Thomas return for 29 yds to the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4417% → 20%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
83.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 13 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
82.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-5
82.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+5
82.3%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Jason Smith for 5 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+3
82.8%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Eli Stove for 3 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
80.3%
Daniel Carlson 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:0783% → 83%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
82.6%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
82.5%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+25
81.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 25 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
83.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 13 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
83.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
83.5%
Joshua Jacobs run for no gain to the Aub 17Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+4
82.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
83.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 3 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
83.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
82.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
82.9%
Adam Griffith 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
83.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2020% → 18%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
80.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
80.5%
Jeremy Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-5
81.1%
Jeremy Johnson sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 16Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
81.6%
Kevin Phillips punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:2782% → 90%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
81.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+20
81.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 20 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
82.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+6
82.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
82.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+14
83.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 14 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
83.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the Aub 4Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.5%
Jalen Hurts 4 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:3012% → 12%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
88.1%
Jeremy Johnson pass complete to Will Hastings for 27 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
86.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
86.3%
Jeremy Johnson run for 4 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
86.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
85.5%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
86.7%
Jeremy Johnson pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
87.7%
Daniel Carlson 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:5489% → 95%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
89.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 5
OWN 41
+15
89.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 15 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
89.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
89.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 6 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 37
-1
88.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+38
95.1%
ArDarius Stewart 38 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:595% → 8%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.6%
John Franklin III run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
94.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.9%
John Franklin III run for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
94.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+55
95.0%
John Franklin III pass complete to Eli Stove for 55 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
93.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
93.6%
John Franklin III pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
94.1%
John Franklin III pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
92.2%
Daniel Carlson 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:1495% → 98%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
94.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Trevon Diggs for 3 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+6
94.6%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
94.7%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.0%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the Alab 30Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+26
94.9%
Joshua Jacobs run for 26 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
96.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Joshua Jacobs for 30 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
96.3%
Joshua Jacobs run for no gain to the Aub 14Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
96.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-3
96.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 17Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+34
97.6%
Adam Griffith 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21INT
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:353% → 3%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
96.8%
John Franklin III pass complete to Eli Stove for 30 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
96.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
96.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
96.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
96.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
96.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+1
96.7%
John Franklin III run for 1 yd to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 4
OPP 27
0
97.1%
Chandler Cox pass intercepted Shaun Dion Hamilton return for no gain to the Alab 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22END OF GAME
15 plays · 58 yds · 8:5098% → 99%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
97.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 3Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+3
97.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the Alab 6Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+14
97.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 14 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
98.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 7 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
98.4%
Joshua Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
98.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 7 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
98.5%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
98.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 8 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
98.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
99.0%
Joshua Jacobs run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
99.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+6
99.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-3
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:16
ArDarius Stewart 38 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick)
+6.4
TD · Q3 9:58
Jalen Hurts 4 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)
+5.8
FG · Q2 3:30
Daniel Carlson 39 Yd Field Goal
-2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com