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LSU

LSU 54 at Texas A&M 39

TA&M
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2016 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for 2 yds to the TexAM 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:32: Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 20 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:11: Derrius Guice run for 45 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:45: Derrius Guice run for 6 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:04: Trayveon Williams run for 33 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +9.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:07: Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 43 yds for a TD, (Trevor Knight pass to Speedy Noil for Two-Point Conversion) — TA&M win probability +10.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 8LSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 6
  1. Q1 9:58TA&M 4th & 9 at TA&M 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:43LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 10, up 7
    Close callPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:11LSU 4th & 4 at TA&M 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:07TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:02LSU 4th & 4 at TA&M 15, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:34TA&M 4th & 9 at TA&M 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:41LSU 4th & 9 at TA&M 34, up 6
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−<0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:20TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:20LSU 4th & 1 at TA&M 49, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 48, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:19TA&M 4th & 7 at LSU 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:01TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:42LSU 4th & 7 at TA&M 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:31TA&M 4th & 9 at LSU 26, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:16LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:05TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:32LSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:11LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:45LSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:04TA&M Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55LSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:07TA&M Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:03LSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:45TA&M Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.5%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:59LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:15TA&M Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2468% → 69%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
31.6%
Derrius Guice run for 19 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
31.7%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+10
32.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeSean Smith for 10 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
31.5%
Derrius Guice run for 45 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5232% → 32%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
31.7%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
31.9%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
32.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 5 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
32.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 7 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-6
32.4%
Trevor Knight sacked by Jamal Adams for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 49Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
32.1%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Keith FordSimilar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+47
31.9%
Shane Tripucka punt for 43 yds, downed at the TEXASAM 8 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (4 Yards) to the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3668% → 68%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
32.1%
Danny Etling run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 2 Danny Etling fumbled, recovered by LSU Danny EtlingSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+1
32.0%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 3Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 11
OWN 3
+7
32.1%
Darrel Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 4
OWN 10
+41
32.3%
Josh Growden punt for 46 yds, downed at the TEXASAM 44 LSU Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3333% → 36%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
32.7%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
32.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+12
32.3%
Trevor Knight run for 12 yds to the LSU 39 Trevor Knight fumbled, recovered by TexAM Trevor Knight for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
33.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
33.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+36
36.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 36 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 3:2665% → 65%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
35.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 7 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
35.4%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
35.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+13
35.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 13 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+43
35.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 31 yds to the TEXASAM 24 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (12 Yards) to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
34.8%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the TexAM 8Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
34.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+2
34.9%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the TexAM 6Similar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+23
34.9%
Colby Delahoussaye 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3536% → 36%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
35.6%
Keith Ford run for 11 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
36.6%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-2
37.2%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
36.0%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
35.5%
Shane Tripucka punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:0164% → 68%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
35.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
35.6%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+9
36.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 9 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
35.4%
Derrius Guice run for 11 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
34.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Dee Anderson for 17 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
34.6%
Derrius Guice run for 20 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
34.1%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
34.2%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-3
34.9%
J.D. Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 15 J.D. Moore fumbled, recovered by LSU Danny EtlingSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
32.5%
Colby Delahoussaye 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0634% → 33%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
33.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-1
34.0%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
32.9%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
32.6%
Shane Tripucka punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3469% → 69%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
31.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 8 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-2
30.9%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+11
30.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeSean Smith for 11 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
29.6%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
29.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
30.1%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
31.2%
Josh Growden punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:0833% → 30%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
32.9%
Keith Ford run for 6 yds to the TexAM 10Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+5
33.0%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
33.2%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
33.2%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+10
30.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 10 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
32.2%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-1
32.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
31.0%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
30.4%
Shane Tripucka punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5170% → 70%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
30.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeSean Smith for 12 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
28.6%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+13
30.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 2
50
+1
27.6%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
28.7%
Danny Etling run for no gain to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
29.9%
Josh Growden punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
31.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0773% → 79%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
27.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Colin JeterSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
20.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 20 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2525% → 23%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
24.7%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
24.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
23.5%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
23.1%
Shane Tripucka punt for 46 yds, downed at the LSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15FG
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0527% → 26%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
26.5%
Keith Ford run for 6 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
26.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-5
25.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
25.1%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
25.9%
Daniel LaCamera 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5274% → 86%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.8%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
24.9%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
24.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 7 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+11
24.2%
Derrius Guice run for 11 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
13.7%
Derrius Guice run for 45 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:1816% → 17%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
15.8%
Keith Ford run for 17 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
15.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 19 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
17.0%
Keith Ford run for 8 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 2
OPP 38
-2
17.0%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
16.6%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:3587% → 96%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+39
13.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 39 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
12.3%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 22Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+16
12.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 16 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
4.5%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:306% → 15%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
5.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
5.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
5.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
5.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+27
5.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 27 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
5.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
5.4%
Christian Kirk pass incomplete to Trevor KnightSimilar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+7
5.3%
Trayveon Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+33
15.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 33 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:3589% → 98%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
11.1%
Derrius Guice run for 18 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
10.2%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+22
10.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 22 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
9.5%
Derrius Guice run for 8 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+4
7.8%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
7.8%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
7.6%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+24
7.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 24 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
6.9%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 7Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
2.2%
D.J. Chark run for 7 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:263% → 13%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
3.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
3.1%
Trevor Knight run for 17 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
2.9%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
2.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 8 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
2.9%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
12.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 43 yds for a TD, (Trevor Knight pass to Speedy Noil for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3593% → 99%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
7.2%
Derrius Guice run for 13 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
6.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 9 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
6.2%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
50
+42
5.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Dee Anderson for 42 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
5.7%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
5.7%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 9Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
1.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:012% → 9%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
2.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 14 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
2.2%
Keith Ford run for 28 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
2.5%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+32
9.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 32 yds for a TD, (K. Ford Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:2894% → 99%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
50
+29
5.6%
Derrius Guice run for 29 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
5.5%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-2
5.0%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 18Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+13
3.8%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference 13 yards to the TEXASAM5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q4 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
3.7%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the TexAM 5Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
3.6%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the TexAM 2Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.6%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:351% → 1%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
1.2%
Trevor Knight sacked by Davon Godchaux for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 11Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+5
1.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
1.0%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
1.0%
Shane Tripucka punt for 42 yds, downed at the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
0.5%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
0.5%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 2
50
+3
0.4%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.4%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the TexAM 47Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
0.3%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
0.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
0.3%
Josh Growden punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 1:220% → 1%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
0.3%
James White run for 7 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+48
0.3%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Speedy Noil for 48 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
0.4%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
0.4%
Jake Hubenak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
0.4%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+24
0.3%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Edward Pope for 24 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.4%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.4%
Jake Hubenak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.0%
James White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+2
0.9%
TEAM run for 2 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:11
Derrius Guice run for 45 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q4 13:07
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 43 yds for a TD, (Trevor Knight pass to Speedy Noil for Two-Point Conversion)
+10
TD · Q3 5:04
Trayveon Williams run for 33 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com