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MISS

Ole Miss 17 at Vanderbilt 38

VAN
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:25 · Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Quincy Adeboyejo, broken up by Nehemiah Mitchell
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 184Pregame prior−2.9Home team on offense+30.4Score differential+22.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.6Garbage-time factor+8.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:16: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 5 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +8.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:48: Ralph Webb run for 11 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +15.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:03: Tommy Openshaw 24 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +6.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:11: Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +21.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:44: Shea Patterson pass complete to Evan Engram for 38 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +14.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 10:51MISS 4th & 6 at VAN 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51VAN 4th & 7 at MISS 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:42MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:51VAN 4th & 17 at VAN 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:39MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:49VAN 4th & 15 at VAN 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:28MISS 4th & 1 at VAN 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−1.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:09MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:37VAN 4th & 18 at VAN 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:25MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:16VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−1.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:03VAN 4th & 1 at MISS 6, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%−3.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−11.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:03MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:11VAN 4th & 1 at MISS 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−3.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−11.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:44VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:11MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−2.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:24MISS 4th & 11 at VAN 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:10VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:25MISS 4th & 3 at VAN 28, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:30VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 35, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:51MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:30VAN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:16VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:48VAN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:11VAN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:44MISS Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:36VAN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0979% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
21.0%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+21
21.0%
Akeem Judd run for 21 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
21.0%
Shea Patterson run for 14 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
21.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 16 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
21.0%
Akeem Judd run for 13 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
21.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Damore'ea Stringfellow, broken up by Torren McGasterSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
21.0%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
21.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
22.7%
Gary Wunderlich 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
22.7%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+14
22.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 14 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
22.8%
Dallas Rivers run for 6 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+10
23.1%
Darrius Sims run for 10 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
23.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete, broken up by Tony ConnerSimilar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
23.1%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
23.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
22.7%
Sam Loy punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
24.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Evan Engram for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
23.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete, broken up by Tre HerndonSimilar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
24.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
24.4%
Will Gleeson punt for 45 yds , Darrius Sims returns for no gain to the Vandy 21 Darrius Sims fumbled, recovered by Miss Carlos DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
21.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Akeem Judd for 21 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
22.6%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
22.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 6 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
22.7%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+14
22.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 14 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
23.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Darrius SimsSimilar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-7
23.0%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Fadol Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
22.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
22.3%
Sam Loy punt for 49 yds, downed at the Miss 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
23.1%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+10
23.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Akeem Judd for 10 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
22.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 13 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
22.7%
DaMarkus Lodge run for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+10
23.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Evan Engram for 10 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
22.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Damore'ea Stringfellow, broken up by Nifae LealaoSimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
22.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by C.J. Duncan at the Vandy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:4622% → 29%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
22.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 5
OWN 29
+67
22.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 67 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
28.8%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:3073% → 73%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 19
OWN 11
+6
26.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 6 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
26.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 2 yds to the Miss 22 OLE MISS Penalty, personal foul (-11 Yards) to the Miss 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
-9
26.8%
Shea Patterson sacked by Arnold Tarpley and Jay Woods for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+19
27.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Evan Engram for 19 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
27.5%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 48 yds, fair catch by C.J. Duncan at the Vandy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
27.7%
Darrius Sims run for 4 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
27.4%
Darrius Sims run for 8 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
28.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
28.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-5
27.6%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Caleb Scott) to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
26.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q2 13:49
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+23
26.7%
Sam Loy punt for 37 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 23 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1173% → 73%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
26.8%
Akeem Judd run for 12 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
26.8%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
26.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 4 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+3
26.6%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
27.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 4:1229% → 40%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
28.5%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+9
29.5%
Dallas Rivers run for 9 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
30.0%
Donaven Tennyson run for 2 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
30.5%
Darrius Sims rush for 7 yards to the OM32, out-of-bounds (Zedrick Woods), PENALTY VANDY holding (Barrett Gouger) 10 yards to the OM49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+39
29.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Darrius Sims for 39 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
31.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
31.1%
Darrius Sims run for 5 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
39.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 5 yds for a TD OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
36.8%
Shea Patterson run for 1 yd to the Miss 11Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+6
37.1%
Shea Patterson run for 6 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+15
37.5%
[SH], Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Evan Engram, PENALTY VANDY pass interference (LaDarius Wiley) 15 yards to the OM32, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
35.8%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-5
35.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (A.J. Brown) to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+3
36.8%
Shea Patterson run for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-1
37.3%
Shea Patterson sacked by Jonathan Wynn for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
38.1%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 44 yds, downed at the Vandy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 0:1641% → 42%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
40.8%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+2
41.3%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-8
42.7%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by D.J. Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 16Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 18
OWN 16
0
41.7%
Sam Loy punt for 47 yds, downed at the Miss 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
44.7%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
43.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
44.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Evan Engram, broken up by Zach CunninghamSimilar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
45.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by C.J. Duncan at the Vandy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3444% → 44%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
43.5%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
43.9%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 23Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 23
-2
43.2%
Darrius Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 21Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
43.8%
Sam Loy punt for 40 yds, downed at the Miss 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
46.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Damore'ea Stringfellow, broken up by Tre HerndonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:1243% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
43.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 19 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
43.5%
D. Tennyson rush for loss of 4 yards to the VANDY25, out-of-bounds (Shawn Curtis), PENALTY VANDY illegal block off-setting, PENALTY OM personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
43.6%
Darrius Sims run for no gain to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+21
43.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
46.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Vandy Kyle ShurmurSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+16
44.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 16 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
47.1%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+17
47.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 17 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
49.8%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
64.9%
Ralph Webb run for 11 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:4339% → 39%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.5%
Shea Patterson run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
61.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
62.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Evan Engram for 10 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
60.9%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+13
60.9%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 27 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by Vandy Zach Cunningham , return for 13 yds to the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3467% → 73%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
67.1%
Ralph Webb run for 12 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
67.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
67.1%
Darrius Sims run for 8 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
66.2%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Miss 6Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+24
72.5%
Tommy Openshaw 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
69.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Damore'ea Stringfellow, broken up by Torren McGasterSimilar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
69.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
71.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by C.J. Duncan at the Vandy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 5:2677% → 96%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
76.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 11 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
77.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 5 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
77.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 4 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+15
76.1%
Darrius Sims run for 15 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
78.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, broken up by Derrick JonesSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+21
78.1%
Ralph Webb run for 21 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
78.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 11 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
76.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
76.8%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.0%
Bailey McElwain run for no gain to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 2:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:206% → 19%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
94.4%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
94.4%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
94.5%
Eugene Brazley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
94.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
94.3%
Shea Patterson run for 9 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
94.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-5
94.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Detric Bing-Dukes) to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+11
94.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 11 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.3%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
96.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+38
81.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Evan Engram for 38 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
91.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
91.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
91.0%
Sam Loy punt for 29 yds, downed at the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0016% → 14%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Akeem JuddSimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
84.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-7
84.6%
Shea Patterson sacked by Oren Burks and Adam Butler for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
86.1%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:4594% → 99%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+31
93.9%
Ralph Webb run for 31 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.4%
Darrius Sims run for no gain to the Miss 41Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
94.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 4 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+14
94.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Darrius Sims for 14 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
94.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 14 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Khari BlasingameSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
94.3%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Bailey McElwain for 3 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
98.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Evan Engram for 20 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-1
98.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
98.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 11
OPP 13
0
98.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 4 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
99.4%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Dallas RiversSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 3
OWN 20
-5
99.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Oren Burks) to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
99.4%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 7 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
98.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+11
99.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 11 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.9%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
98.9%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 7 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 3
OPP 28
0
98.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Quincy Adeboyejo, broken up by Nehemiah MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Darrius Sims run for no gain to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+4
99.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 4 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Sam Loy punt for 31 yds, downed at the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 30END OF GAME
10 plays · 51 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Jason Pellerin pass incomplete to A.J. Brown, broken up by Torren McGasterSimilar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
99.4%
Jason Pellerin pass complete to Van Jefferson for 12 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.4%
Jason Pellerin pass incomplete to Van Jefferson, broken up by Oren BurksSimilar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
99.4%
Jason Pellerin pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+17
99.4%
Jason Pellerin pass complete to Van Jefferson for 17 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.3%
Jason Pellerin pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 9 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+4
99.2%
Jason Pellerin pass complete to A.J. Brown for 4 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.2%
Jason Pellerin pass complete to A.J. Brown for 6 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 4
OPP 18
0
99.2%
Jason Pellerin run for no gain to the Vandy 18Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+3
99.2%
Jason Pellerin pass complete to Akeem Judd for 3 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:11
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
+21
TD · Q3 10:48
Ralph Webb run for 11 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
+15.1
TD · Q4 14:44
Shea Patterson pass complete to Evan Engram for 38 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
-14.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com