Try the model
UTSA

UTSA 10 at Texas A&M 23

TA&M
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Kyle Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:40 · Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+43.5Home team on offense+0.8Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:46: Jared Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 10 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +3.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Daniel LaCamera 37 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +1.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:22: Trayveon Williams run for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +4.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 2:17: Victor Falcon 24 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +1.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:53: Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 43 — TA&M win probability +4.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UTSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:40UTSA 4th & 6 at TA&M 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:13UTSA 4th & 11 at TA&M 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:22TA&M 4th & 2 at UTSA 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.3%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:18UTSA 4th & 8 at TA&M 31, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:22TA&M 4th & 5 at UTSA 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:22UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:54TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:07UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 23, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:55UTSA 4th & 1 at TA&M 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.4%−1.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:17UTSA 4th & 6 at TA&M 6, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:17TA&M 4th & 11 at TA&M 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:53TA&M 4th & 2 at UTSA 39, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%−1.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:16UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 9, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:08TA&M 4th & 18 at UTSA 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:02UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 21, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:36TA&M 4th & 1 at UTSA 15, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.3%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:30TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:46UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:22TA&M Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
96.0%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
96.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
96.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 56 yds, downed at the TexAM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 3:1596% → 96%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
95.8%
Keith Ford run for no gain to the TexAM 17Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+22
95.8%
Keith Ford run for 22 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
95.8%
Keith Ford run for 9 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+12
95.8%
Keith Ford run for 12 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
95.8%
Jake Hubenak run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST down TEXASSAN Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-12
95.8%
Christian Kirk run for a loss of 12 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 22
OPP 34
+18
95.8%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 18 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
95.5%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 16 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
95.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
95.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 34 yds, downed at the TexAM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
95.3%
Trayveon Williams run for 16 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
95.4%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 4 yds Ricky Seals-Jones fumbled, forced by Jordan Moore, recovered by TexSA Marcus Davenport , return for 4 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5MISSED FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:275% → 5%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
95.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-1
95.0%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
95.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+9
95.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
95.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
95.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-4
95.0%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Daylon Mack for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 26Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
94.7%
Victor Falcon 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:5195% → 94%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
94.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+15
94.8%
TEXASSAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan Moore) to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+23
94.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 23 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
94.9%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete, broken up by Vontrell King-WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
94.9%
Jake Hubenak run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+13
94.8%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 13 yds to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
94.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
94.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
94.8%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 6Similar
Q1 1:22
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+24
94.2%
Daniel LaCamera 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:366% → 10%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
94.2%
Matt Guidry run for 22 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
94.0%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
93.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+12
93.4%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 12 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
93.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
93.2%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Jarveon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
93.4%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+10
93.7%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Brady Jones for 10 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
93.1%
Tyrell Clay run for 5 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+1
93.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 15Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+5
93.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.1%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 10 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8FG
15 plays · 58 yds · 5:2491% → 92%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
91.2%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 25Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+11
91.0%
Jake Hubenak run for 11 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
91.3%
Jake Hubenak run for 2 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
91.4%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+16
91.5%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 16 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
91.8%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+9
91.8%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 9 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
91.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 10 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
91.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 19 yards to the UTSA1 (Jupe), PENALTY TAMU ineligible downfield on pass (Avery Gennesy) 5 yards to the UTSA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
91.9%
Jake Hubenak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+5
91.6%
Jake Hubenak run for 5 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
91.7%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Josh Reynolds, broken up by Devron DavisSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+5
91.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, offside defense (Vontrell King-Williams) to the TexSA 15Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
91.7%
Daniel LaCamera 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
90.2%
Jared Johnson sacked by Myles Garrett and Zaycoven Henderson for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 26Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
91.0%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr., broken up by Myles GarrettSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+1
91.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 21 , Christian Kirk returns for 1 yd to the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
91.2%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 11 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
91.3%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 13
OWN 29
0
91.1%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 13
OWN 29
-3
90.7%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Marcus Davenport for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 26Similar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 16
OWN 26
0
90.4%
Shane Tripucka punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1711% → 9%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
88.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
88.9%
Jared Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-4
89.7%
Jared Johnson sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
90.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:5790% → 93%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
90.2%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 20 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Josh Reynolds, broken up by Devron DavisSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-10
90.6%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to T. Williams, PENALTY TAMU holding (Avery Gennesy) 10 yards to the TAMU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 20
OWN 30
0
90.1%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-Jones, broken up by Michael EgwuaguSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 20
OWN 30
+35
89.6%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 35 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
91.4%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+16
91.4%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 16 yds to the TexSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
91.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+37
93.0%
Daniel LaCamera 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
91.5%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
91.5%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 3 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
91.2%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
90.8%
Shane Tripucka punt for 33 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the TexSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
90.4%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Marquez McNair for 9 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
89.8%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
90.0%
Jared Johnson sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 17
50
+4
90.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+15
90.9%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 15 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
89.6%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Trevor Stevens for 4 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
89.4%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Larry Stephens for 4 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+1
89.9%
Tyrell Clay run for 1 yd to the TexAM 22Similar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
90.4%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:0291% → 96%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
91.3%
Trayveon Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 16Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 16
OWN 16
0
91.1%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+37
90.7%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 37 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
95.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16FG
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:055% → 8%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
94.6%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 19Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
94.7%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Brady Jones for 6 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
94.6%
Jared Johnson run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
94.3%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Shaq Williams for 15 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
94.1%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 21 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
93.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 9 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+2
93.3%
Jared Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
93.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
93.3%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+14
93.8%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 14 yds to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
93.3%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 6Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
93.2%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
93.7%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Marquez McNair, broken up by DeShawn Capers-SmithSimilar
Q3 2:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
91.7%
Victor Falcon 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
94.6%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
94.5%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Keith FordSimilar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
94.3%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
94.0%
Shane Tripucka punt for 44 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the TexSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:328% → 8%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+35
92.5%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 35 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
91.2%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+2
91.4%
Jarveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+12
91.8%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Shaq Williams for 12 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-8
90.9%
Team run for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 30 Kyle McKinney fumbled,Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 30
-8
91.6%
Jared Johnson sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 42 Jared Johnson fumbled, recovered by TexAM Alex Sezer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
96.4%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+10
96.4%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 10 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
96.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
96.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+1
96.3%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 13:53
4TH & 2
OPP 39
0
95.9%
Shane Tripucka punt for 31 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:576% → 4%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
94.1%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 7 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
94.1%
Jared Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 1
OWN 17
-8
94.2%
Jared Johnson sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 9Similar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
96.5%
Yannis Routsas punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
97.2%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+4
97.1%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 4 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+12
97.1%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 12 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
97.2%
Jake Hubenak run for 2 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
97.2%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-10
97.1%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Ben Kane for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
96.6%
Shane Tripucka punt for 40 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
96.9%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 9Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+12
97.0%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 12 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
96.8%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Brady JonesSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
96.8%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Trevor Stevens, broken up by Kingsley KekeSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
96.9%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Josh Stewart, broken up by Charles OliverSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
96.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23END OF GAME
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:1398% → 99%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
97.5%
Keith Ford run for 8 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+12
97.7%
Keith Ford run for 12 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
98.3%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
98.3%
James White run for 4 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+15
98.5%
James White run for 15 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
98.6%
James White run for 4 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+4
99.0%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 4 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
99.0%
James White run for 1 yd to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+8
98.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 8 yds to the TexSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:53
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 43
+4.9
TD · Q3 8:22
Trayveon Williams run for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q2 10:46
Jared Johnson pass complete to Josh Stewart for 10 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com