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MIZ

Missouri 37 at Tennessee 63

TENN
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:13 · Carlin Fils-Aime run for 8 yds to the Tenn 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:00: Drew Lock run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +6.7 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:17: Ish Witter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +8.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:51: Ish Witter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +11.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:39: Joshua Dobbs run for 30 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +12.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:20: Joshua Dobbs run for 70 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +13.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:01MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:54TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 42, up 1
    Close callPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55MIZ 4th & 17 at TENN 25, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:44MIZ 4th & 1 at TENN 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−1.0
    60% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:47TENN 4th & 7 at MIZ 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:02TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:44MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 44, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.3%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:51TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−3.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:27MIZ 4th & 2 at TENN 39, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−2.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:50MIZ 4th & 7 at TENN 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−11.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:25MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 34, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:07MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:01TENN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:50TENN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:00MIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:00TENN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:17MIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:58TENN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:51MIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:39TENN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:20TENN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:25TENN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:57MIZ Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:52TENN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 4:31TENN Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 10 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
86.0%
Alvin Kamara run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+2
86.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+2
86.0%
Tyler Byrd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
86.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 51 yds, downed at the Misso 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 3:5015% → 17%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
85.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Damarea Crockett for no gain to the Misso 12Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+12
85.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 12 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
85.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 7 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-1
85.4%
Damarea Crockett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+24
85.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 24 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
85.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 1 yd to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+11
85.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 11 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
85.3%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
85.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+5
85.3%
Lock, D. pass incomplete to Moore, J'Mon, dropped pass, PENALTY UT offside defense (Barnett, D.) 5 yards to the UT29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+7
85.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 7 yds to the Tenn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
83.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 22 yds for a TD, (Ben Tesson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
8 plays · 98 yds · 3:0684% → 84%
Q1 9:07
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+22
83.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 22 yds to the Tenn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
83.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 17 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
84.0%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-2
84.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 49Similar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
83.6%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Tenn 4Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+6
83.6%
John Kelly run for 6 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+49
84.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 49 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.6%
Ish Witter run for 10 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
83.5%
Ish Witter run for 11 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
83.2%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 6
50
0
83.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 6
50
-5
83.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Adam Ploudre) to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
83.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+3
83.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 47 yds , Josh Smith returns for 3 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
83.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 6 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+1
83.4%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Tenn 18Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+15
83.1%
Dobbs, J. pass incomplete to Jennings, J., PENALTY MU pass interference (Gibson, J.) 15 yards to the UT33, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
83.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
83.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
83.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:54
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
83.4%
Trevor Daniel punt for 40 yds, downed at the Misso 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6DOWNS
12 plays · 57 yds · 2:4317% → 18%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
82.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 16 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
82.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 9 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+11
81.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 11 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
81.8%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+7
81.7%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
81.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 16 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
81.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
81.5%
Drew Lock run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 20
0
81.0%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 12
OPP 20
-5
81.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Johnathon Johnson) to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 17
OPP 25
0
82.2%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 0:5782% → 85%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
82.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+9
82.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 9 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
85.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 57 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
85.4%
TENNESSEE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Josh Malone) to the Tenn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
85.3%
Nate Strong run for 23 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
84.7%
Nate Strong run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+1
84.9%
Nate Strong run for 1 yd to the Tenn 37Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+9
85.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 9 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
85.0%
Josh Augusta run for no gain to the Tenn 28 Josh Augusta fumbled, recovered by Tenn Dillon BatesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:2085% → 85%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
85.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 10 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
85.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
50
+18
85.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 18 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
86.0%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+1
86.0%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
85.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
85.0%
Aaron Medley 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:4714% → 22%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
85.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 9 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+38
84.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 38 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
83.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 12 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
83.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
83.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Tenn 4Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
84.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.8%
Drew Lock run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0081% → 87%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
81.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jason Croom, broken up by Ronnell PerkinsSimilar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
80.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 12 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
81.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 22 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
82.6%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
82.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Tyler Byrd, broken up by Donavin NewsomSimilar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+10
82.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 10 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
83.0%
Tyler Byrd run for 22 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:3614% → 25%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.0%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+13
86.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 13 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
85.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
50
+5
84.4%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+8
84.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 8 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+32
84.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 32 yds to the Tenn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
83.7%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Tenn 2Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.9%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1580% → 77%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
79.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Tyler Byrd for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 26Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
77.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 25 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Trevor Daniel punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14END OF HALF
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
77.0%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
77.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+10
78.0%
Ish Witter run for 10 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
75.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
76.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+5
77.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, offside defense (Derek Barnett) to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
75.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+19
77.2%
Ish Witter run for 19 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
76.6%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Micah Abernathy return for 26 yds to the Misso 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:4880% → 86%
Q3 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
80.1%
Jauan Jennings run for 4 yds to the Misso 5Similar
Q3 14:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q3 13:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 5 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
17 plays · 82 yds · 5:0116% → 30%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
84.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 7 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+6
84.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 6 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
84.1%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-7
84.0%
Drew Lock sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 15
OWN 26
-6
85.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Paul Adams) to the Misso 20Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 21
OWN 20
+29
85.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 29 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
82.8%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 9
50
+8
82.7%
Ish Witter run for 8 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
82.6%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
82.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 25 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
81.4%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
81.4%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Tenn 10Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+6
82.5%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Tenn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
81.4%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.5%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
76.0%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 23Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
75.7%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the Tenn 24Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
74.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
74.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0026% → 27%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
73.8%
Nate Strong run for 13 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
71.8%
Nate Strong run for a loss of 8 yards to the Misso 34Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+5
74.3%
Lock, D. pass incomplete to Hall, E., PENALTY UT offside defense (Kongbo, J.) 5 yards to the MU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+14
73.4%
Nate Strong run for 14 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
70.8%
Nate Strong run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
71.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+9
72.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 9 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-2
72.7%
Nate Strong run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:1076% → 91%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
76.3%
John Kelly run for 17 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
77.5%
John Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 43Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+8
76.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
77.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+5
75.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
78.7%
Alvin Kamara run for no gain to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
90.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 30 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 2:4913% → 21%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
85.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 16 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
84.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 11 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
84.4%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
84.5%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+3
84.4%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
83.4%
Lock, D. pass incomplete to Johnson, J., PENALTY UT pass interference (Gaulden, R.) 15 yards to the UT15, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
83.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
83.1%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
84.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Kendall Blanton, broken up by Micah AbernathySimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+28
78.6%
Tucker McCann 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:2579% → 93%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
78.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 6 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
79.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 3 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+70
92.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 70 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23KICKOFF
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
92.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2695% → 99%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
95.1%
John Kelly run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 2
50
+4
95.2%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
95.2%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 6
OWN 0
0
94.7%
PENALTY UT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
95.3%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+9
95.1%
John Kelly run for 9 yds to the Misso 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+28
95.3%
Alvin Kamara run for 28 yds to the Misso 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:283% → 6%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Stephen GriffinSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.2%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
97.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 8 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
97.1%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
97.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 9 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
96.9%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
50
+50
94.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 50 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0195% → 99%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.1%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
95.1%
John Kelly run for 5 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+40
95.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 40 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.0%
John Kelly run for 27 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 27INT TD
11 plays · 36 yds · 1:212% → 0%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Cameron SuttonSimilar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
98.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 19 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
98.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 8 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
98.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
98.1%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
98.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 11 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
97.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 15
OPP 39
0
98.0%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+59
99.9%
Drew Lock pass intercepted for a TD Jonathan Kongbo return for 59 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Chris Black for 15 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
99.9%
Ish Witter run for 19 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+13
99.9%
Ish Witter run for 13 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.8%
John Kelly run for 5 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
99.8%
Carlin Fils-Aime run for 4 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.8%
Carlin Fils-Aime run for 8 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 25 yds J'Mon Moore fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
John Kelly run for 5 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
100.0%
Carlin Fils-Aime run for 4 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
100.0%
Carlin Fils-Aime run for 8 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:20
Joshua Dobbs run for 70 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+13.2
TD · Q3 2:39
Joshua Dobbs run for 30 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+12
TD · Q3 8:51
Ish Witter run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com