Try the model
WCU

Western Carolina 31 at South Carolina 44

SC
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Williams-Brice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadWCU aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreWCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of GameTD-0.9SC 95.8%Connell Young run for 16 yds for a TD,(Logan Howard KICK)AWAY 14 - HOME 21 · Q1 4:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:08 · Connell Young run for 16 yds for a TD, (Logan Howard KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+43.2Home team on offense+1.3Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:18: Logan Howard 32 yd FG GOOD — WCU win probability +1.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 6:07: Deebo Samuel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +2.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:52: Connell Young run for 4 yds for a TD, (D. Newsome Run For Two-point Conversion) — WCU win probability +5.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: WCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:13: Elliott Fry kickoff for 58 yds , Detrez Newsome return for 93 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WCU win probability +5.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:23: Elliott Fry 32 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +4.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 4:08WCU 4th & 2 at SC 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:18WCU 4th & 6 at SC 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:31WCU 4th & 1 at SC 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00WCU 4th & 4 at WCU 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:11SC 4th & 4 at SC 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:14WCU 4th & 5 at WCU 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:35SC 4th & 5 at WCU 14, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:52SC 4th & 3 at WCU 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00WCU 4th & 1 at SC 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−1.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:28SC 4th & 6 at WCU 6, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:23SC 4th & 8 at WCU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:23WCU 4th & 5 at WCU 27, down 13
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 13:10SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:12SC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:01WCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 7:48SC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 4:08WCU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:07SC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:14SC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:52WCU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:13WCU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5097% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 8 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+14
97.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 14 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
97.3%
Deebo Samuel run for 14 yds to the WCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
97.3%
Jake Bentley run for 1 yd to the WCaro 43Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+43
97.1%
Rico Dowdle run for 43 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
97.1%
Tyrie Adams run for 4 yds to the WCaro 27Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-4
97.1%
Tyrie Adams run for a loss of 4 yards to the WCaro 23 Tyrie Adams fumbled, recovered by SCaro D.J. SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1797% → 97%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
97.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to K.C. Crosby for a loss of 1 yard to the WCaro 24Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
97.0%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+13
97.0%
Jake Bentley run for 13 yds to the WCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
97.0%
Deebo Samuel run for 9 yds to the WCaro 2Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+1
97.0%
Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd to the WCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.0%
Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:113% → 4%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.9%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
97.0%
Detrez Newsome run for 6 yds to the WCaro 24Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+24
97.0%
Tyrie Adams run for 24 yds to the WCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
96.9%
Detrez Newsome run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 8
50
0
96.9%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 8
50
+11
96.9%
Tyrie Adams run for 11 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
96.4%
Detrez Newsome run for 39 yds for a TD, (Logan Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:403% → 4%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.8%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
96.8%
Detrez Newsome run for 10 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.7%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-3
96.8%
Connell Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 39Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+15
96.8%
Tyrie Adams run for 15 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
96.7%
Detrez Newsome run for 3 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
96.7%
Detrez Newsome run for 4 yds to the SCaro 17Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+1
96.7%
Connell Young run for 1 yd to the SCaro 16Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+16
95.8%
Connell Young run for 16 yds for a TD, (Logan Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
96.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 15 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
96.1%
Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd to the SCaro 44Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
96.1%
Rico Dowdle run for no gain to the SCaro 44Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+12
96.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to David Williams for 12 yds to the WCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
96.1%
David Williams run for 7 yds to the WCaro 37Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
96.1%
Rico Dowdle run for 2 yds to the WCaro 30 Rico Dowdle fumbled, forced by Daniel Nash, recovered by WCaro Avery WorshamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 5:005% → 7%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.4%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
95.4%
Tyrie Adams run for 11 yds to the WCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
95.3%
Detrez Newsome run for no gain to the WCaro 41Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
95.3%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Detrez Newsome for 10 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
95.1%
Connell Young run for 2 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+2
94.9%
Tyrie Adams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+13
94.9%
Tyrie Adams run for 13 yds to the SCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
94.7%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Terryon Robinson for 9 yds to the SCaro 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+5
94.7%
Detrez Newsome run for 5 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
94.7%
Detrez Newsome run for 2 yds to the SCaro 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
94.7%
Detrez Newsome run for 2 yds to the SCaro 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
94.9%
Tyrie Adams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
93.3%
Logan Howard 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1194% → 95%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.5%
A.J. Turner run for 9 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
93.7%
A.J. Turner run for 14 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
93.9%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the WCaro 48Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
93.9%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the WCaro 48Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+26
93.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 26 yds to the WCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
94.0%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the WCaro 17Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+4
94.0%
Jake Bentley run for 4 yds to the WCaro 13Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+5
93.9%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the WCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
94.0%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the WCaro 2Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
94.0%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.3%
Deebo Samuel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:365% → 5%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
94.9%
Detrez Newsome run for 12 yds to the WCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
94.7%
Detrez Newsome run for 6 yds to the WCaro 38Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+7
94.5%
Detrez Newsome run for 7 yds to the WCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
94.6%
WESTRN CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Walker Lanning) to the WCaro 40Similar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+2
94.8%
Connell Young run for 2 yds to the WCaro 42Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+57
94.8%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 57 yds to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.1%
Connell Young run for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.1%
Detrez Newsome run for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.3%
Detrez Newsome run for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.7%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Aubry PayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11TD
13 plays · 98 yds · 2:1195% → 97%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
94.9%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan Edwards, broken up by Marvin TillmanSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+8
94.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 8 yds to the SCaro 10Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+12
94.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 12 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+40
95.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 40 yds to the WCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
95.3%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the WCaro 33Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
95.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 6 yds to the WCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
95.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 1 yd to the WCaro 26Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+12
95.1%
Hayden Hurst pass complete to Jake Bentley for 12 yds to the WCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
95.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to K.C. CrosbySimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
95.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo Samuel, PENALTY WCU pass interference (Keion Crossen) 12 yards to the WCU2, 1ST DOWN SC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.6%
Deebo Samuel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.3%
Detrez Newsome run for 2 yds to the WCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.4%
Detrez Newsome run for 6 yds to the WCaro 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
96.2%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Terryon Robinson, broken up by Chris LammonsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
96.3%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Brad Swan Jr., broken up by Rashad FentonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
96.5%
Ian Berryman punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 16 , Chris Lammons returns for no gain to the SCaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
97.2%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo Samuel, broken up by Kendall WhiteSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
97.2%
Rico Dowdle run for 6 yds to the SCaro 22Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
97.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo Samuel, broken up by Trey MorganSimilar
Q3 14:11
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+47
96.9%
Sean Kelly punt for 52 yds, downed at the SOCAROLINA 26 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the WCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
96.1%
Detrez Newsome run for 5 yds to the WCaro 36Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
96.1%
Detrez Newsome run for no gain to the WCaro 36Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
96.2%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Spearman Robinson, broken up by Chris LammonsSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
96.3%
Ian Berryman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:3497% → 98%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+31
97.4%
Rico Dowdle run for 31 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
97.5%
Rico Dowdle run for 5 yds to the WCaro 49Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+19
97.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 19 yds to the WCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
97.6%
Rico Dowdle run for 5 yds to the WCaro 25Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
97.5%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the WCaro 23Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
97.5%
Jake Bentley run for 4 yds to the WCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
97.5%
David Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the WCaro 24Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+10
97.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 10 yds to the WCaro 14Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
97.5%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo SamuelSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
98.4%
Elliott Fry 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:432% → 7%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
98.2%
Connell Young run for 1 yd to the WCaro 47Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+8
98.2%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 8 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
98.1%
Connell Young run for 5 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
98.2%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 22 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
97.9%
Tyrie Adams run for 10 yds to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
97.9%
Detrez Newsome run for 4 yds to the SCaro 4Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.8%
Connell Young run for 4 yds for a TD, (D. Newsome Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
95.5%
Rico Dowdle run for 11 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
95.7%
Rico Dowdle run for 5 yds to the SCaro 49Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
95.7%
Rico Dowdle run for 10 yds to the WCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
95.8%
Rico Dowdle run for 2 yds to the WCaro 39Similar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+5
95.8%
Rod Talley run for 5 yds to the WCaro 34Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
95.6%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Deebo Samuel, broken up by Kendall WhiteSimilar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 3
OPP 34
-6
95.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for a loss of 6 yards to the WCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:256% → 7%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
93.8%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Spearman Robinson for 18 yds to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
93.5%
Tyrie Adams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
93.5%
Tyrie Adams pass incomplete to Brad Swan Jr.Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+7
93.7%
Tyrie Adams run for 7 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
93.5%
Detrez Newsome run for no gain to the SCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 5:2896% → 97%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
96.2%
Rico Dowdle run for 16 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
96.4%
Rico Dowdle run for 9 yds to the WCaro 43Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+6
96.4%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the WCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
96.4%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the WCaro 34Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+6
96.4%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the WCaro 28Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+6
96.3%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the WCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
97.1%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the WCaro 19Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+12
97.1%
Jake Bentley run for 12 yds to the WCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-11
97.1%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the WCaro 3 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Cory Helms) to the WCaro 18Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
-2
97.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the WCaro 20Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+14
96.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 14 yds to the WCaro 6Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
97.4%
Elliott Fry 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:5093% → 97%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+44
92.9%
Rico Dowdle run for 44 yds to the WCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
93.4%
Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd to the WCaro 15Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+6
93.4%
Rico Dowdle run for 6 yds to the WCaro 9Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
93.0%
Deebo Samuel run for no gain to the WCaro 9Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 3
OPP 9
-5
92.4%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WCaro 14Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
97.2%
Elliott Fry 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WCUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
96.8%
Tyrie Adams pass complete to Aubry Payne for 7 yds to the WCaro 29Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-6
96.5%
Tyrie Adams sacked by Darius English for a loss of 6 yards to the WCaro 23Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+4
96.9%
Tyrie Adams run for 4 yds to the WCaro 27Similar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
96.9%
Ian Berryman punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
97.7%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 6
50
+7
97.7%
A.J. Turner run for 7 yds to the WCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.7%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the WCaro 39Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+11
97.8%
A.J. Turner run for 11 yds to the WCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
97.8%
Darius Paulk run for 2 yds to the WCaro 26Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
97.8%
Darius Paulk run for 3 yds to the WCaro 23Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+19
97.8%
Darius Paulk run for 19 yds to the WCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:52
Connell Young run for 4 yds for a TD, (D. Newsome Run For Two-point Conversion)
-5.1
TD · Q4 9:13
Elliott Fry kickoff for 58 yds , Detrez Newsome return for 93 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-5
FG · Q4 6:23
Elliott Fry 32 yd FG GOOD
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com