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ARK

Arkansas 58 at Mississippi State 42

MSST
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:12 · Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense−35.9Score differential−16.5Garbage-time factor−9.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.0Pregame prior−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:53: Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK) — ARK win probability +12.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:32: Rawleigh Williams III run for 33 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK) — ARK win probability +9.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:03: Rawleigh Williams III pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam McFain PAT MISSED) — ARK win probability +13.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:52: Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +11.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:12: Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Fitzgerald pass to Fred Ross for Two-Point Conversion) — MSST win probability +9.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:10ARK 4th & 5 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:10MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:23MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:45MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 27, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:58ARK 4th & 14 at MSST 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:55MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:47MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:53MSST 4th & 1 at midfield, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.8%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:03ARK 4th & 1 at MSST 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−3.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−12.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:12MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:12ARK 4th & 1 at MSST 25, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−1.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−5.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:20MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 45, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:12ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:18MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:29ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:25MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:29ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:53ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:32ARK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:15MSST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:03ARK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:52MSST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:04ARK Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:12MSST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:29ARK Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 2:15MSST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4852% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
48.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 72 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 0:4748% → 49%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
48.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
48.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+6
48.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
48.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 58 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:0251% → 51%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+34
48.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 34 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
48.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 14 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
48.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+7
48.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
48.3%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
48.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
48.4%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
49.0%
Adam McFain 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
49.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 10 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
49.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 3 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-8
49.3%
Keith Mixon run for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+5
49.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
48.9%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:3951% → 54%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+29
49.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 29 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
45.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 42 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 5:5847% → 52%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
46.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
46.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
47.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
47.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 12 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
47.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 13 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
47.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yards to the AR24 (DJ Dean), PENALTY MS holding (Justin Senior) 10 yards to the AR46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+6
47.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 14
OPP 40
-10
47.2%
Aeris Williams rush for 11 yards to the AR29 (Santos Ramirez), PENALTY MS holding (Deion Calhoun) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 24
50
0
47.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik Dear, broken up by Brooks EllisSimilar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 24
50
+23
46.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 23 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+5
47.3%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
48.0%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
48.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+18
52.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 18 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:5150% → 58%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
50.1%
Jared Cornelius run for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+11
50.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 11 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+33
49.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 33 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
48.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+3
48.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+7
48.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 7 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
48.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 23 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
41.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3744% → 42%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
44.1%
Keith Mixon run for 5 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+3
44.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
43.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
42.2%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:4059% → 59%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
41.1%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+50
41.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 50 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
40.2%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 14
OPP 16
0
40.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
41.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+34
40.7%
Adam McFain 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
38.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
38.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Aeris WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
38.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
37.7%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 2:0963% → 76%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.3%
Austin Allen run for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+23
37.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O?Grady for 23 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+30
37.1%
T.J. Hammonds run for 30 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
24.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
29.3%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+7
29.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 7 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
29.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray (Ryan Pulley), PENALTY AR holding (Ryan Pulley) 10 yards to the MS38, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
30.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
30.5%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-5
30.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+21
29.5%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 36 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 21 yds to the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5577% → 87%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
22.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Leo LewisSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
23.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 3 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+13
23.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 13 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
22.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+33
13.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 33 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14MISSED FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 1:2617% → 25%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
16.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+10
17.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 10 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
17.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+13
18.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 13 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
18.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
18.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete, broken up by Josh LiddellSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+7
17.5%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+44
25.4%
Westin Graves 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:3817% → 23%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
16.6%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
17.2%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
17.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 7 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
18.3%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
50
0
18.3%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 1
50
+10
17.9%
Malik Dear run for 10 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
23.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 40 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
13 plays · 79 yds · 7:0580% → 95%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
20.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 19Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+32
20.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 32 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
18.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
18.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
19.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
18.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 12 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
18.2%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+24
18.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 24 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
18.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 7Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
18.2%
Austin Allen run for 5 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
18.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q3 5:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.8%
Rawleigh Williams III pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam McFain PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:066% → 20%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
6.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 24 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
6.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+8
6.9%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+31
7.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 31 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
8.0%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 2Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:4288% → 98%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
12.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 2 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
12.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+17
12.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 17 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
12.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+24
12.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 24 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
8.7%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
8.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
2.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 10 yds for a TD, (K. Hatcher Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:453% → 13%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
3.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+43
3.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 43 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+23
3.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 23 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for no gain to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal Couch, broken up by Jared CollinsSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
3.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Fitzgerald pass to Fred Ross for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
10 plays · 44 yds · 5:4395% → 99%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
5.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 10 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
5.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-3
5.2%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+10
5.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 10 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+5
6.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
5.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
5.2%
Jared Cornelius run for 5 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+10
5.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 10 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:051% → 4%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
1.2%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+4
1.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+10
1.2%
Aeris Williams run for 10 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
1.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 14 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
1.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
1.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+11
1.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
1.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
4.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:5198% → 99%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
1.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+1
1.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+4
1.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
1.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 13 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
1.3%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:03
Rawleigh Williams III pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam McFain PAT MISSED)
-13.7
TD · Q2 5:53
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q3 2:52
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com