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APSU

Austin Peay 13 at Kentucky 49

UK
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:43 · Grant McKinniss punt for 47 yds, downed at the APeay 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+47.5Home team on offense+0.1Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:51: KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside (1 Yards) to the Kent 2 — APSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 5%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:51: Benny Snell Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — APSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:25: Benny Snell Jr. run for 48 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — APSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:30: Jojo Kemp run for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — APSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:51: Jojo Kemp run for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — APSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 5APSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:14APSU 4th & 2 at UK 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:43UK 4th & 1 at UK 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:42UK 4th & 18 at UK 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:25UK 4th & 2 at APSU 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.0%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:14APSU 4th & 4 at APSU 15, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:30APSU 4th & 11 at APSU 23, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:42APSU 4th & 4 at UK 46, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−3.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:17APSU 4th & 17 at APSU 24, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−7.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:45APSU 4th & 3 at APSU 38, up 20
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00UK 4th & 4 at APSU 12, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−0.6
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−16.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:31APSU 4th & 14 at UK 21, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:31UK 4th & 3 at UK 28, down 20
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
APSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:04APSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:51APSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APSUDrive 1INT
17 plays · 71 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
99.4%
JaVaughn Craig run for 20 yds to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.4%
JaVaughn Craig run for 6 yds to the APeay 43Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
99.4%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Kyran Moore for 3 yds to the APeay 46Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+6
99.3%
Kyran Moore run for 6 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
99.3%
Kentel Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the APeay 48Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+7
99.3%
Kentel Williams run for 7 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
99.3%
JaVaughn Craig run for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
99.3%
JaVaughn Craig run for 5 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
99.3%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Jared Beard for 11 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.3%
Kyran Moore run for 5 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
99.3%
JaVaughn Craig pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+7
99.3%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to James Coleman for 7 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.3%
Kentel Williams run for no gain to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
99.3%
JaVaughn Craig pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
99.3%
JaVaughn Craig pass intercepted Chris Westry return for no gain to the Kent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
98.9%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 6Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 11
OWN 6
-1
98.9%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 9 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (-4 Yards) to the Kent 5Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+1
98.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Kent 6Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+10
98.9%
Luke Wright pass complete to Dorian Baker for 10 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
98.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 47 yds, downed at the APeay 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:151% → 3%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
98.7%
Kyran Moore run for 9 yds to the APeay 46Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
98.6%
Kentel Williams run for 2 yds to the APeay 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
98.6%
Kentel Williams run for 7 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+12
98.6%
Kentel Williams run for 12 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.6%
Kentel Williams run for no gain to the Kent 33Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
98.6%
Kentel Williams run for 7 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+4
98.1%
JaVaughn Craig run for 4 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
98.1%
Kentel Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+17
97.5%
Kentel Williams run for 17 yds for a TD, (Nick Gauna KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4INT TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0898% → 97%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
97.6%
Luke Wright pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 6 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 22
-5
97.6%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (J. Stallings) 5 yards to the UK17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+3
97.6%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+25
96.9%
Luke Wright pass intercepted for a TD Gunnar Scholato return for 25 yds for a TD, (Nick Gauna PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
94.9%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside (1 Yards) to the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
95.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 3
50
+5
95.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 5 yds to the APeay 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for no gain to the APeay 45Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
95.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the APeay 38Similar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
95.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 3
OPP 38
-15
95.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Dorian Baker) to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
95.7%
Grant McKinniss punt for 28 yds, downed at the APeay 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 7INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
93.7%
Kentel Williams run for no gain to the APeay 26Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
93.7%
Kyran Moore run for 9 yds to the APeay 35Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
93.9%
Kentel Williams run for 2 yds to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
93.7%
Kentel Williams run for 3 yds to the APeay 40Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
93.6%
JaVaughn Craig pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+61
93.7%
JaVaughn Craig pass intercepted Mike Edwards return for 46 yds to the KENTUCKY 14 KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the APeay 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:3493% → 89%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
92.9%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the APeay 32Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+3
93.1%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the APeay 29Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
93.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the APeay 29Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+4
92.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the APeay 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
93.1%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Blake Bone, PENALTY APSU offside (PACE, Jule) 5 yards to the APSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 5
OPP 20
0
93.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the APeay 20Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-10
93.1%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson rush for 14 yards to the APSU6 (BRYANT, Juant), PENALTY UK holding (G. Asafo-Adjei) 10 yards to the APSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
92.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+30
89.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 30 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2614% → 7%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
86.4%
Kentel Williams run for 3 yds to the APeay 12Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+3
86.5%
Kentel Williams run for 3 yds to the APeay 15Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
86.8%
JaVaughn Craig pass incomplete to Jared Beard, broken up by Chris WestrySimilar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
92.7%
Devin Stuart punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:2488% → 87%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+42
88.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 42 yds to the APeay 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
88.1%
[SHOT], Jojo Kemp rush for 9 yards to the APSU0, clock 04:22, PENALTY UK holding (J. Stallings) 10 yards to the APSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+5
88.0%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the APeay 14Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
86.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
87.5%
Kyran Moore run for 2 yds to the APeay 26Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
87.5%
JaVaughn Craig pass incomplete to Jared BeardSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+18
87.8%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Jared Beard for a loss of 2 yards Jared Beard fumbled, forced by Josh Allen, recovered by APeay Kyran Moore , return for 18 yds to the APeay 23Similar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+1
88.4%
Devin Stuart punt for 34 yds , Charles Walker returns for 1 yd to the Kent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:0584% → 81%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
83.7%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Shaun Whittinghill for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+14
82.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 14 yds to the APeay 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
84.2%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the APeay 40Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
81.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles Walker, broken up by Trent TaylorSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+40
80.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:5222% → 29%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
78.5%
Zeandre Floyd run for 1 yd to the APeay 21Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+19
78.6%
Kentel Williams run for 4 yds to the APeay 25 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the APeay 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.8%
JaVaughn Craig pass incomplete to Jared BeardSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
71.5%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the APeay 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:1079% → 78%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
79.3%
Ryan Timmons run for 11 yds to the APeay 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
79.9%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the APeay 25Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
78.4%
Stanley Williams run for 25 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.2%
Kyran Moore run for 4 yds to the APeay 29Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
71.1%
Kentel Williams run for 19 yds to the APeay 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
69.8%
[SHOT], PENALTY APSU false start (EWOLDT, Max) 5 yards to the APSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+1
70.3%
Kentel Williams run for 1 yd to the APeay 44Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
70.1%
JaVaughn Craig pass incomplete to Jared Beard AUSTINPEAY Penalty, IS ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+10
71.0%
Kentel Williams run for 10 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 4
OPP 46
-6
71.7%
JaVaughn Craig sacked by Jordan Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the APeay 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16TD
1 play · 48 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
64.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 48 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
56.3%
Kendall Morris run for 1 yd to the APeay 11Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+7
55.1%
Kentel Williams run for 7 yds to the APeay 18Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+13
55.6%
Kentel Williams run for 13 yds to the APeay 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
51.9%
Kentel Williams run for no gain to the APeay 31Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
52.7%
Kentel Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 30Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-6
53.3%
JaVaughn Craig run for a loss of 6 yards to the APeay 24 JaVaughn Craig fumbled, recovered by APeay JaVaughn CraigSimilar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 17
OWN 24
0
56.1%
Devin Stuart punt for 16 yds, downed at the APeay 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
46.2%
Jojo Kemp run for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3564% → 78%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
35.8%
Kendall Morris run for 5 yds to the APeay 36Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
35.2%
Rashaan Coleman run for 2 yds to the APeay 38Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
35.1%
JaVaughn Craig run for no gain to the APeay 38Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
22.3%
Jalen Marsalis punt for 34 yds , Charles Walker returns for no gain to the Kent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 6:4437% → 13%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
36.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
37.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-5
37.8%
[SHOT], Benny Snell rush for 5 yards to the UK42 (ALEXANDER, Josh), PENALTY UK false start 5 yards to the UK32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+12
36.8%
Luke Wright pass complete to Charles Walker for 12 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
38.5%
Benny Snell Jr. pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
38.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the APeay 48Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
39.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the APeay 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
39.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the APeay 36Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+18
40.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 18 yds to the APeay 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
42.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the APeay 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-2
20.9%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 2 yards to the APeay 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
-1
18.8%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 12Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+5
18.2%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the APeay 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
13.0%
Jojo Kemp run for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 21MISSED FG
19 plays · 58 yds · 9:0992% → 99%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
7.9%
JaVaughn Craig run for 7 yds to the APeay 28Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 28
-5
8.0%
[SHOT], PENALTY APSU false start (EWOLDT, Max) 5 yards to the APSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+4
8.0%
Kentel Williams run for 4 yds to the APeay 27Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
4.5%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Kyran Moore for 5 yds to the APeay 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
4.5%
Kentel Williams run for 3 yds to the APeay 35Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+12
4.3%
JaVaughn Craig run for 12 yds to the APeay 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
4.0%
Kendall Morris run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 7
50
+4
3.8%
Kendall Morris run for 4 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+6
3.8%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to James Coleman for 6 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
3.8%
Kendall Morris run for 3 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+3
3.8%
Kyran Moore run for 3 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+17
3.8%
JaVaughn Craig run for 17 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
3.6%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Kentel Williams for 1 yd to the Kent 16Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+3
3.4%
Kyran Moore run for 3 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-5
3.5%
[SHOT], MOMODU, Prince rush for 6 yards to the UK7 (Kash Daniel), PENALTY APSU illegal formation 5 yards to the UK18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 11
OPP 18
-3
3.8%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Prince Momodu for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 21Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+38
0.8%
Nick Gauna 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
1.6%
Sihiem King run for 2 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+1
1.6%
Sihiem King run for 1 yd to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+4
1.6%
Sihiem King run for 4 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+41
1.6%
Grant McKinniss punt for 41 yds , Kyran Moore returns for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
0.7%
JaVaughn Craig run for 6 yds to the APeay 36Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
0.7%
JaVaughn Craig pass complete to Kentel Williams for no gain to the APeay 36Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+3
0.7%
JaVaughn Craig run for 3 yds to the APeay 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+99.3
TD · Q3 6:30
Jojo Kemp run for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 10:25
Benny Snell Jr. run for 48 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com