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UK

Kentucky 36 at Tennessee 49

TENN
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:19 · John Kelly run for 1 yd to the Kent 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 12:05: Austin MacGinnis 33 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +5.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:08: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 51 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +9.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:18: Alvin Kamara run for 17 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +7.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:30: Jojo Kemp 71 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UK win probability +5.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:41: Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +5.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49UK 4th & 4 at TENN 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:48TENN 4th & 29 at TENN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:31UK 4th & 13 at TENN 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:27UK 4th & 7 at TENN 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:27UK 4th & 6 at UK 49, down 8
    Close callPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:30TENN 4th & 23 at TENN 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:43UK 4th & 9 at UK 34, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:05UK 4th & 13 at TENN 15, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−2.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:12UK 4th & 1 at UK 25, down 19
    Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:15UK 4th & 12 at TENN 38, down 19
    Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 36, up 19
    Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:51UK 4th & 16 at UK 19, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 13:09UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:54TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:30TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:27TENN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:08TENN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:18TENN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:30UK Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:51TENN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:12TENN Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:58UK Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:41UK Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
79.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
79.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+2
79.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 27
-4
79.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Brett Kendrick) to the Tenn 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 23
-6
79.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 56 yds , Charles Walker returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 15 Charles Walker fumbled, recovered by Kent Charles WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:4321% → 22%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+75
78.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 75 yds to the Tenn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
78.1%
Stanley Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:0978% → 79%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
78.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+10
78.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 10 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
78.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Jauan Jennings) to the Tenn 25Similar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+41
78.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 41 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
78.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
78.4%
John Kelly run for 10 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
78.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 24 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
78.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 12 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
78.0%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
78.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Kyle PhillipsSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
78.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+15
78.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kendal Vickers) to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
77.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
77.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, broken up by Elliott BerrySimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
77.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff Badet, broken up by Cameron SuttonSimilar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
77.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
77.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 7 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
77.6%
Jauan Jennings run for 7 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
77.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
77.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 29
OWN 15
0
77.1%
Trevor Daniel punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 39Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-19
77.3%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Denzil Ware for a loss of 19 yards to the Tenn 15 TENNESSEE Penalty, intentional grounding (Joshua Dobbs) to the Tenn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:2224% → 25%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
76.5%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-1
76.4%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
76.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 15 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
76.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+27
76.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 27 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
76.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
76.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to C.J. ConradSimilar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
76.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 8
OPP 14
-5
76.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 19Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+37
75.5%
Austin MacGinnis 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0175% → 78%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
75.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 20 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
75.9%
John Kelly run for 9 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+10
76.2%
John Kelly run for 10 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+35
76.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for 35 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.6%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8FG
17 plays · 72 yds · 6:5923% → 26%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
77.4%
Stephen Johnson run for 11 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
77.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, personal foul (Elliott Berry) to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
76.5%
Stanley Williams run for 11 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
76.4%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+5
76.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
75.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Benny Snell Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+14
75.7%
Stanley Williams run for 14 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
75.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+1
75.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tenn 8Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
76.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
76.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tenn 4Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
76.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
76.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 2Similar
Q2 12:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
77.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 7Similar
Q2 9:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
74.0%
Austin MacGinnis 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:5376% → 83%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
75.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
75.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+18
75.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 18 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
76.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+44
76.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 44 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
77.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
82.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 10 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
82.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 20 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
81.1%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+1
80.6%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
80.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Blake Bone, broken up by Cameron SuttonSimilar
Q2 6:27
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
82.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Josh Smith at the Tenn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+39
81.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 39 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
82.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-5
82.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Jashon Robertson) to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+3
82.6%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-15
82.3%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 15 yards to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 23
OWN 43
0
80.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 1:1618% → 17%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
82.3%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-6
82.3%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Corey Vereen for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 16Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+17
83.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 17 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
81.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 15
OWN 28
0
82.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+6
82.6%
Jojo Kemp run for 6 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
82.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
82.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Smith at the Tenn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
81.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 12 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
82.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted Derrick Baity return for no gain to the Kent 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:1219% → 20%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+17
81.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 17 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.4%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted Jauan Jennings return for no gain to the Tenn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:5519% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
81.0%
Stanley Williams run for 39 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
79.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 20 yds to the Tenn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-15
77.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Jervontius Stallings) to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
77.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+22
78.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 22 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
77.6%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+1
78.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tenn 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 15
0
79.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 13
OPP 15
+33
74.7%
Austin MacGinnis 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 1:5276% → 88%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
76.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+16
76.1%
Alvin Kamara run for 16 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
76.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
50
-1
78.4%
John Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+51
87.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 51 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17FUMBLE
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1415% → 16%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
85.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to C.J. Conrad, broken up by Kyle PhillipsSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+16
85.6%
Stephen Johnson run for 16 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
85.1%
Stanley Williams run for 8 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+4
84.3%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
84.3%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Corey Vereen for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 40Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 19
OWN 40
+9
85.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 9 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+37
85.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 37 yds to the Tenn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
82.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
82.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 4 yds to the Tenn 8Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+4
83.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tenn 4 Benny Snell Jr. fumbled, forced by Stephen Griffin, recovered by Tenn LaTroy LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18TD
8 plays · 96 yds · 2:3187% → 96%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
86.9%
KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nick Haynes) to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
87.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+6
87.4%
John Kelly run for 6 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
87.5%
Dobbs, J. pass incomplete to Croom, J., PENALTY UK pass interference (Mike Edwards) 14 yards to the UT45, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
88.4%
John Kelly run for 6 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+10
88.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 10 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
88.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 22 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
96.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 17 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
93.7%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
93.8%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+1
93.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Greg Hart for 1 yd to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+8
93.8%
Grant McKinniss punt for 47 yds , Josh Smith returns for 8 yds to the Tenn 36 Josh Smith fumbled, recovered by Kent Tristan YeomansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
93.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-3
93.3%
Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
94.2%
Stephen Johnson punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 12
OPP 38
0
94.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
96.9%
John Kelly run for 10 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
97.0%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
97.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 4 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+3
96.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 55 yds , Charles Walker returns for 3 yds to the Kent 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
2 plays · 88 yds · 0:344% → 9%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
96.0%
Stanley Williams run for 17 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
90.7%
Jojo Kemp 71 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:3395% → 99%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
95.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 13 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
98.9%
Joshua Dobbs run for 45 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian Baker, broken up by Malik ForemanSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.7%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
98.7%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 19Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
98.7%
Grant McKinniss punt for 45 yds, downed at the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:5899% → 100%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
98.9%
John Kelly run for 13 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
98.9%
John Kelly run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+27
98.9%
John Kelly run for 27 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
98.9%
John Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 29Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 29 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:140% → 1%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Sihiem King run for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
99.9%
Sihiem King run for 13 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Sihiem King run for 2 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
Sihiem King run for 7 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+24
99.9%
Sihiem King run for 24 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.1%
Sihiem King run for 24 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
94.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 16 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
94.2%
Stephen Johnson sacked by LaTroy Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+19
94.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 19 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
93.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
93.9%
Jojo Kemp run for 8 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+7
93.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 7 yds to the Tenn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
93.6%
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds to the Tenn 9Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
93.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, PENALTY UT pass interference (Abernathy, M.) 7 yards to the UT2, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 29END OF GAME
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:225% → 1%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
95.0%
- 0e run for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
98.3%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 17
OWN 40
-9
97.6%
J.D. Harmon run for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 26
OWN 31
-1
97.6%
- 0e run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+9
98.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 9 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
98.8%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the Kent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:08
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 51 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q3 3:18
Alvin Kamara run for 17 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+7.6
TD · Q4 1:41
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com