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VAN

Vanderbilt 17 at Missouri 26

MIZ
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:32 · Sam Loy punt for 33 yds, downed at the Misso 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Home team on offense+16.3Pregame prior+0.8Garbage-time factor+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score differential+5.5Blowout margin+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:08: Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted for a TD Aarion Penton return for 19 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +6.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:50: Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 82 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann PAT MISSED) — MIZ win probability +9.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:39: Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +11.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 15:00: VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (Kyle Shurmur) to the Vandy 32 — MIZ win probability +6.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 8:39: Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 4 yds for a TD VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Ben Tesson KICK) — MIZ win probability +16.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 8VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:56VAN 4th & 14 at VAN 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:00MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 37, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:01VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:41MIZ 4th & 13 at VAN 39, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:06VAN 4th & 2 at MIZ 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−0.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:19MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 25, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:13VAN 4th & 5 at MIZ 6, down 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:05MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 23, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:56VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 49, down 9
    Close callPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:58MIZ 4th & 4 at VAN 4, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−11.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:58VAN 4th & 3 at MIZ 42, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    39.8%−3.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 24 at VAN 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−5.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:32VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 21, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:32MIZ 4th & 1 at VAN 27, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%−1.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−5.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:03VAN 4th & 17 at VAN 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:35MIZ 4th & 7 at VAN 47, up 9
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:27VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 2, down 9
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:50MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:08MIZ Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:50MIZ Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:24VAN Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:39VAN Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:39MIZ Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
55.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 3 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
55.6%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
55.6%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
55.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
55.7%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
55.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-7
55.8%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 17Similar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 14
OWN 17
+18
55.8%
Sam Loy punt for 36 yds , Johnathon Johnson returns for 18 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:3856% → 58%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
56.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 11 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
56.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 3 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
56.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 4 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+13
56.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 13 yds to the Vandy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
56.3%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Vandy 4Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4INT
6 plays · 47 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.0%
Darrius Sims run for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
56.8%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
56.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 9 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+24
56.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 24 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
56.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Joey Burkett return for 8 yds to the Misso 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
57.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 20Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+6
57.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 6 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+11
57.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 11 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
58.1%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
57.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
57.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:5042% → 40%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
58.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 7 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+2
58.3%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
58.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Darrius Sims for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
59.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
59.8%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+28
60.4%
Sam Loy punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 26 , Johnathon Johnson returns for 28 yds to the MISSOURI 49 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding (38 Yards) to the Misso 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
61.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 5 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+15
61.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 15 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
62.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 18 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
62.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-1
62.2%
Drew Lock sacked by Nifae Lealao for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-5
61.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 39Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 13
OPP 39
0
61.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Tre HerndonSimilar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
60.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 30 yds, downed at the Vandy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8INT TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:1038% → 31%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
62.1%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+3
62.0%
Dallas Rivers run for 3 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+19
68.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted for a TD Aarion Penton return for 19 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:0232% → 29%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.3%
Josh Crawford run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
68.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 19 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
67.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 5 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+23
67.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 23 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
66.3%
Darrius Sims run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 27Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
66.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+9
67.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 9 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 2
OPP 18
0
70.7%
Khari Blasingame pass incomplete to Bailey McElwainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10TD
1 play · 82 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
80.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 82 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2623% → 28%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
77.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 29 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
75.9%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-2
76.1%
Darrius Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+11
76.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 11 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
75.4%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Misso 31Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+27
75.3%
Darrius Sims run for 27 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
75.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
75.6%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 25 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
75.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Ish WitterSimilar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+16
74.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 56 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 16 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:2025% → 29%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+31
74.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 31 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
72.6%
Donaven Tennyson run for 16 yds to the Misso 18 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding (Kalija Lipscomb) to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 4
OPP 0
+10
72.5%
K. Blasingame rush for 9 yards to the MU19 (Gibson, John), PENALTY VANDY holding 10 yards to the MU38, NO PLAY, PENALTY VANDY personal foul off-setting, PENALTY MU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+27
74.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 27 yds to the Misso 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
72.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Bailey McElwain for 3 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+2
72.5%
Darrius Sims run for 2 yds to the Misso 6Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
73.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 14
OPP 38
0
74.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Josh CrawfordSimilar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
71.0%
Tommy Openshaw 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
72.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 1 yd to the Misso 23Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 9
OWN 23
0
72.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
71.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
70.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4529% → 28%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
71.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 6 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
70.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+1
70.3%
Kyle Shurmur run for 1 yd to the Vandy 49Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
72.0%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16MISSED FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 0:5072% → 75%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+25
71.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 25 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
73.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+8
71.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 8 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
73.0%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+16
72.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 16 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
73.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 6 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+36
75.4%
Tucker McCann 55 yd FG MISSED , Kalija Lipscomb return for 36 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1630% → 45%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 6 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
69.6%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
70.0%
Khari Blasingame run for 6 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
69.2%
Khari Blasingame run for 6 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+7
68.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 7 yds to the Misso 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
68.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, PENALTY MU pass interference (Gibson, John) 15 yards to the MU32, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+19
67.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 19 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
66.6%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Misso 13Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
66.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 11 yds to the Misso 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
66.7%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Misso 1Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 77 yds · 1:3661% → 63%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
61.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 7 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
61.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+54
60.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 39 yds to the Vandy 22 Damarea Crockett fumbled, forced by Taurean Ferguson, recovered by Misso J'Mon Moore for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
65.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Richaud Floyd for 12 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
65.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
65.8%
Drew Lock run for 6 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios Mason, broken up by LaDarius WileySimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
62.8%
Tucker McCann 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 38 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
60.3%
Darrius Sims run for 31 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
56.4%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
56.8%
Khari Blasingame run for 8 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-1
56.4%
Khari Blasingame run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+6
58.8%
Sam Loy punt for 34 yds , Johnathon Johnson returns for 6 yds to the Misso 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20FUMBLE
11 plays · 85 yds · 0:0062% → 67%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
61.5%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Mason, D, PENALTY MU holding 7 yards to the MU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+11
61.3%
Ish Witter run for 11 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+1
61.5%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+43
60.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 43 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
65.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Richaud FloydSimilar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
65.7%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+25
65.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 25 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
66.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 5 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
66.9%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Vandy 2Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
65.4%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Vandy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the Vandy 1 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Vandy LaDarius WileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:4939% → 37%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
61.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 5 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+16
61.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 16 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
60.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 7 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+23
58.9%
Darrius Sims run for 23 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
56.1%
Kyle Shurmur run for 2 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-9
56.2%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Charles Harris for a loss of 9 yards to the Vandy 37 Kyle Shurmur fumbled, recovered by Vandy Justin Skule , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 37
-5
62.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (Kyle Shurmur) to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 30
OWN 32
+6
63.1%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 24
OWN 38
-5
63.3%
Sam Loy punt for 32 yds , Johnathon Johnson returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 33 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding (Eric Beisel) to the Misso 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 3:3365% → 87%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
64.9%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Misso 15Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+11
64.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 11 yds to the Misso 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
65.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 3 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
65.6%
Drew Lock run for 6 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+11
66.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 11 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
68.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
68.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Kendall BlantonSimilar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+16
67.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 16 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
70.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+16
70.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 1 yd to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (LaDarius Wiley) to the Vandy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
70.8%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Mason, D, dropped pass, PENALTY VANDY holding (Tre Herndon) 10 yards to the VANDY9, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
70.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
70.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 4 yds for a TD VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Ben Tesson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
86.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete, broken up by Nate HowardSimilar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
86.7%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
87.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by Marvin ZandersSimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
87.9%
Sam Loy punt for 33 yds, downed at the Misso 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
87.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 18 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
88.1%
Lock, Drew pass complete to Wingo, Ray for 5 yards to the VANDY31 (Torren McGaster), PENALTY MU holding (Ploudre, Adam) 10 yards to the VANDY46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 20
OPP 46
-3
87.8%
Damarea Crockett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 49Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 23
OPP 49
+9
87.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 9 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+13
86.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 13 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-2
86.6%
Damarea Crockett run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0010% → 8%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
90.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
90.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by Anthony SherrilsSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-7
91.3%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Marcell Frazier and Jordan Harold for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 22Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 17
OWN 22
0
91.9%
Sam Loy punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:3192% → 93%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
50
+3
92.2%
Drew Lock run for 3 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
93.4%
Marvin Zanders run for no gain to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
93.6%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 7
OPP 47
+43
93.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 43 yds, downed at the Vandy 4 VANDERBILT Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
95.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 9 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 1
OWN 13
-6
95.5%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Nate Howard and Charles Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 7Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 7
OWN 7
-5
96.0%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 2Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 12
OWN 2
0
96.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Donaven Tennyson, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
96.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 4Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 6Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:39
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 4 yds for a TD VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Ben Tesson KICK)
+16.4
TD · Q3 9:39
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q2 9:50
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 82 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann PAT MISSED)
+9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com