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LSU

LSU 38 at Arkansas 10

ARK
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:46 · Toby Baker punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense−28.2Pregame prior−7.3Score differential−16.7Garbage-time factor−10.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Leonard Fournette 7 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:19: Derrius Guice 3 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:52: Dominique Reed 44 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick) — ARK win probability +5.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:32: Adam McFain 24 Yd Field Goal — ARK win probability +2.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:59: Leonard Fournette 3 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 5
  1. Q1 13:29ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:47ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:36LSU 4th & 5 at ARK 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:15ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 28, down 14
    Close callPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:44LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 34, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:36ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:14LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:32ARK 4th & 6 at LSU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:51ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:16ARK 4th & 15 at LSU 45, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:05LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 25, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−2.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:46ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 34, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:51LSU 4th & 1 at ARK 1, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−4.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:58LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:19LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:52ARK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:59LSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:04LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0623% → 24%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
23.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-7
23.5%
Austin Allen sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
23.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 13
OWN 25
+49
23.8%
Toby Baker punt for 49 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2476% → 76%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
23.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
24.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
24.4%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
24.5%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+38
24.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 38 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
24.9%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
25.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 10 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
23.7%
Leonard Fournette 5 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:4824% → 26%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
24.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 9Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+6
24.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+5
24.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 5 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
24.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 20 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
25.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
25.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
25.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
25.5%
Toby Baker punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1175% → 75%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
24.9%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Josh Boutte) to the LSU 11Similar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+12
25.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 12 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+1
24.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+26
25.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 11 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Jeremiah Ledbetter) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
50
-2
24.3%
Travin Dural run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+7
24.6%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
24.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
24.9%
Josh Growden punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2926% → 26%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
25.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
25.5%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Donnie Alexander return for 14 yds to the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4676% → 80%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
24.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+6
24.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
20.3%
Leonard Fournette 7 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2122% → 21%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
21.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+4
21.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
21.4%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 4
OWN 28
-6
21.2%
Toby Baker punt for 46 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5680% → 88%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
20.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Austin Capps) to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 5
OWN 25
-5
20.2%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
20.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 15 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
19.7%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+48
19.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 48 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
19.0%
Derrius Guice run for 12 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
12.2%
Derrius Guice 3 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:1514% → 20%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
14.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+34
14.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 34 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
15.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 1 yd to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+7
14.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 7 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
14.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
15.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-5
15.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Keon Hatcher) to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 13
OPP 35
-9
14.5%
Austin Allen sacked by Duke Riley for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 22
OPP 44
+44
19.6%
Dominique Reed 44 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5081% → 81%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.7%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
18.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 6 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
18.6%
Bry'Kiethon Mouton run for no gain to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+10
19.0%
Josh Growden punt for 47 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 10 yds to the Ark 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5519% → 18%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
18.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
18.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-6
18.6%
Austin Allen sacked by Greg Gilmore and Davon Godchaux for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
18.4%
Toby Baker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:2882% → 83%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
18.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+6
18.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 6 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
16.5%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
16.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+6
16.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 6 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
16.7%
Josh Growden punt for 50 yds, downed at the Ark 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:5917% → 18%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
16.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+9
16.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 9 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+3
18.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
17.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
17.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:0683% → 83%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
16.7%
Etling, Danny pass complete to Fournette, Leonard for loss of 1 yard to the LSU25, PENALTY LSU holding (Pocic, Ethan) 10 yards to the LSU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+6
16.6%
D.J. Chark run for 6 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
16.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Maea Teuhema) to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+11
16.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 11 yds to the LSU 28 Leonard Fournette fumbled, forced by Randy Ramsey, recovered by Ark Dwayne EugeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5819% → 20%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
18.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 18 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
18.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the LSU 6Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
18.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the LSU 6Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
18.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon Hatcher, broken up by Arden KeySimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
20.3%
Adam McFain 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:2280% → 92%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
20.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-9
20.2%
Fournette, Leonard rush for 5 yards to the LSU24, PENALTY LSU holding (Pocic, Ethan) 9 yards to the LSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+17
19.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 17 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+38
19.7%
Derrius Guice run for 38 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
17.3%
Derrius Guice run for 15 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
17.1%
Danny Etling run for 3 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Randy Ramsey) to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
16.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.9%
Leonard Fournette 3 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3110% → 10%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
10.3%
Drew Morgan run for 2 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
10.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Devwah Whaley, broken up by Kendell BeckwithSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
10.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 8
OWN 15
-2
10.0%
Toby Baker punt for 43 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 0 yards to the LSU 42 Tre'Davious White fumbled, recovered by Ark Cody Hollister at the LSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1412% → 10%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
11.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-6
11.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
10.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
10.1%
Toby Baker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5593% → 95%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
7.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+6
6.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 6 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+8
6.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
5.5%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
5.5%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-6
5.3%
Danny Etling sacked by De'Jon Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
5.3%
Josh Growden punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:148% → 7%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
8.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+4
7.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
7.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan, broken up by Duke RileySimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
7.3%
Toby Baker punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21FG
13 plays · 84 yds · 6:4995% → 99%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
4.8%
Derrius Guice run for 12 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
4.5%
Derrius Guice run for 19 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
4.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 10 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
4.1%
Derrius Guice run for 16 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
3.9%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
3.8%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+9
3.5%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
3.4%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+6
3.2%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
3.1%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
3.0%
Danny Etling run for 1 yd to the Ark 3Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
3.0%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
1.4%
Colby Delahoussaye 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:302% → 2%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+54
2.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 54 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
2.2%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Dwayne Thomas return for 2 yds to the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 95 yds · 0:5699% → 100%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
1.3%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 4Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+96
0.2%
Derrius Guice 96 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24FUMBLE
13 plays · 77 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
0.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 19 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
0.2%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding (Skipper, Dan) 10 yards to the ARKANSAS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+23
0.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 23 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cody HollisterSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+14
0.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 14 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
0.2%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete, PENALTY LSU pass interference (White, Tre'Davious) 15 yards to the LSU17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
0.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 6 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
0.2%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+6
0.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 6 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
0.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Keon Hatcher) to the LSU 10Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
0.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 9 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.2%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain Devwah Whaley fumbled, recovered by LSU Kendell BeckwithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.2%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
0.1%
Nick Brossette run for 16 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
0.1%
Nick Brossette run for 12 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
0.1%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+5
0.1%
Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the Ark 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:59
Leonard Fournette 3 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)
-8.9
TD · Q2 10:19
Derrius Guice 3 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)
-6.8
TD · Q2 5:52
Dominique Reed 44 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com