2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadTNTC aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreTNTC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:57 · Yeedee Thaenrat run for no gain to the Tenn 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:26: John Kelly run for 73 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:55: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 4TNTC made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
- Q1 12:26TNTC 4th & 5 at TENN 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%41% to convertField goal1.0%−<0.160% to makePunt0.6%−0.3average punt
- Q1 8:40TNTC 4th & 19 at TNTC 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 5:19TNTC 4th & 14 at TNTC 18, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q2 14:43TNTC 4th & 1 at TENN 26, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%71% to convertField goal0.5%−0.164% to makePunt0.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 9:33TENN 4th & 6 at TNTC 43, up 28Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%40% to convertField goal99.3%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 7:42TNTC 4th & 20 at TNTC 10, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 1:29TNTC 4th & 1 at TNTC 49, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 14:54TNTC 4th & 10 at TNTC 35, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 5:36TNTC 4th & 15 at TENN 38, down 45Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.117% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.138% to makePunt0.1%average punt
- Q3 5:24TENN 4th & 5 at TNTC 40, up 45Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%42% to convertField goal99.8%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 1:06TNTC 4th & 3 at TENN 48, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:57TENN 4th & 12 at TNTC 24, up 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%68% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:57TNTC 4th & 1 at midfield, down 48Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:57TNTC 4th & 1 at TENN 35, down 48Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal-0.1%−0.145% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 6:49TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 43, up 48Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:54TNTC 4th & 12 at TNTC 18, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 2:45TNTC 4th & 4 at TNTC 33, down 55Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 14:03TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:46TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:26TENN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:55TENN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:23TENN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:50TENN Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTENNDrive 1TD4 plays · 46 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
TNTCDrive 2DOWNS10 plays · 52 yds · 1:311% → 1%
TENNDrive 3TD3 plays · 72 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
99.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 18 yds to the Tenn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
99.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to John Kelly for 11 yds to the TnTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
99.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 43 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+10
99.3%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Krys Cates for 10 yds to the TnTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.3%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Yeedee Thaenrat for 1 yd to the TnTch 46Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-10
99.3%
Austin Hicks sacked by LaTroy Lewis and Kendal Vickers for a loss of 10 yards to the TnTch 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD1 play · 73 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
TENNDrive 7TD11 plays · 73 yds · 3:4599% → 100%
Q1 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+21
99.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 21 yds to the TnTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+20
99.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 20 yds to the TnTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
99.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 7 yds to the TnTch 19Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+2
99.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 2 yds to the TnTch 17Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 8DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 1%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.6%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Yeedee Thaenrat for 4 yds to the TnTch 37Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
99.6%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Dontez Byrd for 1 yd to the TnTch 38Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+10
99.6%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Krys Cates for 10 yds to the TnTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
99.5%
Yeedee Thaenrat run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 27 Michael BirdsongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 9:33
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+22
99.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 7 yds to the TnTch 38 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE TECH Penalty, illegal helmet contact (Randy Lewis) to the TnTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.7%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Krys Cates for 3 yds to the TnTch 23Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-13
99.7%
Michael Birdsong sacked by Dimarya Mixon for a loss of 13 yards to the TnTch 10Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 20
OWN 10
-2
99.8%
Nick Madonia punt for 50 yds , Josh Smith returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD5 plays · 62 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
TNTCDrive 12DOWNS10 plays · 23 yds · 2:540% → 0%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Dontez Byrd for 2 yds to the TnTch 27Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Michael Birdsong pass incomplete to Dontez Byrd, broken up by Micah AbernathySimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.8%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Dontez Byrd for 8 yds to the TnTch 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13FG12 plays · 47 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
99.8%
Dormady, Q. pass incomplete to Johnson, B. (Flemister, A.J.), PENALTY TTU pass interference (Flemister, A.J.) 15 yards to the TTU33, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 4 yds to the TnTch 29Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+11
99.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 11 yds to the TnTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
99.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 13 yds to the TnTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.8%
Dormady, Q. pass incomplete to Johnson, B. (Flemister, A.J.), PENALTY TTU pass interference (Flemister, A.J.) 5 yards to the TTU2, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Michael Birdsong pass incomplete to Dontez Byrd, broken up by Emmanuel MoseleySimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.8%
Birdsong, M. sacked for loss of 15 yards to the TTU5 (Kongbo, J.), PENALTY UT face mask (Kongbo, J.) 15 yards to the TTU35, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+52
99.8%
Nick Madonia punt for 39 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for 52 yds to the TnTch 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD3 plays · 22 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q3 13:42
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+20
99.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jeff George for 20 yds to the TnTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 16INT16 plays · 37 yds · 7:140% → 0%
Q3 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
99.9%
TENNESSEE TECH Penalty, false start (Jordan Giberti) to the TnTch 22Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.9%
Michael Birdsong sacked by Marquill Osborne for a loss of 2 yards to the TnTch 37Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+15
99.9%
Birdsong, M. pass incomplete to Cunningham, J., PENALTY UT pass interference (Warrior, N.) 15 yards to the UT48, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.8%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Josh Cunningham for 3 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
99.8%
TENNESSEE TECH Penalty, false start (Jordan Giberti) to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 15
OPP 38
+18
100.0%
Michael Birdsong pass intercepted Cortez McDowell return for 18 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
TNTCDrive 18DOWNS9 plays · 48 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
100.0%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Dontez Byrd for 13 yds to the TnTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+29
100.0%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Dontez Byrd for 29 yds to the TnTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+7
100.0%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Yeedee Thaenrat for 7 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19FG9 plays · 27 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+8
99.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jakob Johnson for 8 yds to the TnTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
99.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Eli Wolf for 8 yds to the TnTch 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 14
-15
99.9%
TENNESSEE Penalty, personal foul (Jakob Johnson) to the TnTch 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
100.0%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Dontez Byrd for 16 yds to the TnTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
100.0%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Jordan Smith for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
100.0%
Michael Birdsong pass complete to Dontez Byrd for 5 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:49
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+2
100.0%
Sheriron Jones pass complete to Jakob Johnson for 2 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 22PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · -2 yds · 1:580% → 0%
TNTCDrive 23DOWNS5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:55
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 5:26
John Kelly run for 73 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+0.1