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GASO

Georgia Southern 27 at Ole Miss 37

MISS
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGEnd of GameFG-2.2MISS 84.0%Younghoe Koo 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 27 - HOME 34 · Q4 12:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:09 · Younghoe Koo 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior+10.9Home team on offense+8.1Garbage-time factor+2.7Score differential+2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Blowout margin+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:38: Chad Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +4.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 10:13: Matt Breida run for 68 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +6.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:20: Chad Kelly run for 5 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +6.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q2 3:36: Akeem Judd run for 9 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +5.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:06: Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 38 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +5.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 8GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:49MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01MISS 4th & 3 at GASO 18, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%−<0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    88.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:18MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 48, down 4
    Close callPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:00MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 33, down 11
    Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:26GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:02GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 32, up 4
    Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:42GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00GASO 4th & 5 at MISS 36, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:24GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:17MISS 4th & 2 at GASO 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:02GASO 4th & 11 at MISS 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:13MISS 4th & 5 at GASO 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−7.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:09GASO 4th & 9 at MISS 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:45GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:14MISS 4th & 8 at GASO 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−6.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:49GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.8%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:22MISS 4th & 1 at GASO 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:08GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:59GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:38MISS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:13GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:20MISS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:36MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:06MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:0192% → 91%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.4%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+1
91.3%
Chad Kelly run for 1 yd to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
91.2%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 37 yds , Montay Crockett returns for no gain to the GeoSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:419% → 10%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
91.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 2
50
0
91.0%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 2
50
+3
90.9%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
90.7%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 13
50
+2
90.5%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+39
90.4%
Kevin Ellison pass intercepted Zedrick Woods return for 39 yds to the Miss 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:5891% → 90%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
90.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 39Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+6
90.5%
Akeem Judd run for 6 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+12
90.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 12 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+18
90.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 18 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
90.4%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
90.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 5 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
90.2%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
90.3%
Gary Wunderlich 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:3710% → 12%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
90.0%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+12
90.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
89.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 3 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
89.5%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+23
89.5%
L.A. Ramsby run for 8 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
89.0%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-3
88.8%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+29
87.8%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 29 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:3188% → 87%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
87.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 13 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
87.6%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
87.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 7 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
87.7%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
87.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 6 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+1
87.7%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
87.5%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
87.2%
Gary Wunderlich punt blocked by Malik Henry, punt out of bounds at the Miss 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:5314% → 18%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
86.3%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+8
86.1%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+24
85.8%
Wesley Fields run for 24 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
85.3%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
82.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 9 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4883% → 82%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.8%
Eugene Brazley run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
82.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
82.2%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+10
81.9%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 44 yds , Montay Crockett returns for 10 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1618% → 20%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
81.6%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
81.2%
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
79.7%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
79.9%
Matt Flynn punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Van Jefferson at the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:3080% → 85%
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
80.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 7 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+8
80.6%
Akeem Judd run for 8 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
80.5%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+7
80.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 7 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
80.4%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 5
OPP 41
+9
80.2%
Akeem Judd run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+29
80.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 29 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.1%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5817% → 23%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.0%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
82.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
76.7%
Matt Breida run for 68 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:2078% → 83%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
77.8%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+35
77.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 35 yds to the GeoSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
78.2%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the GeoSo 2Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
77.8%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.2%
Chad Kelly run for 5 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5519% → 21%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
80.9%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+9
80.5%
Wesley Fields run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
79.8%
Wesley Fields run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
79.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+4
79.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
78.8%
Matt Flynn punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 1:1480% → 86%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
80.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 18 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.8%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
80.4%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
80.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (4 Yards) to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
81.1%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+18
81.0%
Chad Kelly run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
80.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 8 yds to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
86.1%
Akeem Judd run for 9 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3116% → 16%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
83.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
83.7%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+3
84.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
84.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Van Jefferson at the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:3084% → 90%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
83.9%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
50
+12
85.0%
Akeem Judd run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
90.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 38 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 34 yds · 1:5311% → 11%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
89.1%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+6
89.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
88.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
88.4%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
88.3%
Seth Shuman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+10
88.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 10 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
87.9%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Keigan Williams for 5 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
87.7%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
88.0%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+54
88.6%
Younghoe Koo 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0312% → 11%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
88.1%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
88.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+15
89.2%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the GeoSo 19 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
88.3%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-2
87.7%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-5
88.5%
Kevin Ellison sacked by Benito Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
89.3%
Matt Flynn punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Van Jefferson at the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:5689% → 88%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
88.8%
Akeem Judd run for 7 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
89.0%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
88.5%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
88.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 12 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
89.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 8 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
89.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea Stringfellow, Chad Kelly injured on play.Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
88.7%
Jason Pellerin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:17
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
88.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Myles Campbell at the GeoSo 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:0512% → 17%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
88.3%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+4
88.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+4
88.6%
Matt Breida run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
88.0%
Wesley Fields run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
87.5%
Wesley Fields run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-1
86.9%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+25
87.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 25 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
85.8%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
85.8%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+15
86.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.6%
Matt Breida run for no gain to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
85.0%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
86.1%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:02
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+41
83.2%
Younghoe Koo 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:3285% → 89%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.4%
Akeem Judd run for 6 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
86.8%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
86.3%
Jason Pellerin run for 9 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
87.7%
Jason Pellerin pass complete to Van Jefferson for 19 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
88.2%
Akeem Judd run for 21 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
89.6%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
89.5%
Eugene Brazley run for no gain to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q3 0:16
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
89.4%
Jason Pellerin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
89.4%
Gary Wunderlich 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:5111% → 16%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
89.4%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 7Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+36
89.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 36 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
87.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+31
86.8%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Myles Campbell for 31 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.9%
L.A. Ramsby run for no gain to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
85.0%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
86.2%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
84.0%
Younghoe Koo 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:3788% → 89%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.2%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
87.9%
Jason Pellerin run for 9 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.8%
Jason Pellerin pass intercepted Darius Jones Jr. return for no gain to the GeoSo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0115% → 14%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
85.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for no gain to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
85.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
85.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
86.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1890% → 92%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
89.6%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+9
89.6%
Akeem Judd run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
90.1%
Akeem Judd run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
90.2%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+1
90.6%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
90.6%
Jason Pellerin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
92.2%
Gary Wunderlich 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:118% → 8%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
91.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Mike Jackson for 5 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+5
91.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
91.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
91.4%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 2
OWN 42
-2
91.0%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
92.1%
Kevin Ellison pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26END OF GAME
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:4294% → 97%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.0%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
94.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+7
95.8%
Jason Pellerin run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+4
95.6%
Jason Pellerin run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
96.7%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+6
97.1%
Akeem Judd run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+11
97.0%
Akeem Judd run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:13
Matt Breida run for 68 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
-6.1
TD · Q2 8:20
Chad Kelly run for 5 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+6
TD · Q2 2:06
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 38 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com