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ALA

Alabama 10 at LSU 0

LSU
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:16 · Josh Growden punt for 51 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for no gain to the Alab 39 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Aaron Robinson) to the Alab 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense+1.0Pregame prior−5.9Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:10: Danny Etling pass incomplete — LSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: Jalen Hurts pass incomplete — ALA win probability +6.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:42: Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 5 yds to the Alab 37 — LSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:08: Jalen Hurts run for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +20.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:32: Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 44 — ALA win probability +7.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:39LSU 4th & 9 at ALA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:52ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:38LSU 4th & 18 at LSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:16ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:30LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:50ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:22LSU 4th & 5 at ALA 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:52ALA 4th & 10 at LSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:16LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:01LSU 4th & 5 at ALA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−1.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:21LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−3.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:30ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−12.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:59LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 15, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:48ALA 4th & 13 at ALA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−3.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:17LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 10, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:05LSU 4th & 19 at LSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−4.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−5.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−7.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:41ALA 4th & 7 at LSU 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−6.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:52LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 35, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 13:08ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0761% → 60%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
39.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+3
39.4%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
39.6%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted Jamal Adams return for no gain to the Alab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0940% → 40%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
39.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 3 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
40.0%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-2
40.1%
Danny Etling sacked by Ryan Anderson and Tim Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 32Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+49
40.0%
Colby Delahoussaye 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ronnie HarrisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4760% → 60%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
39.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
40.0%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
39.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+3
40.2%
JK Scott punt for 50 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 3 yds to the LSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 4:1440% → 41%
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
40.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+1
40.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 1 yd to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+41
40.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 41 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
41.6%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-2
41.6%
Danny Etling sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 17
50
-1
41.3%
Danny Etling sacked by Rashaan Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 18
OWN 49
0
41.2%
Josh Growden punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:2259% → 57%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
41.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 2 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+3
41.8%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-2
42.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 7
OWN 15
+13
42.9%
JK Scott punt for 51 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 13 yds to the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4643% → 43%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
43.2%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+3
43.0%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
43.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
42.7%
Josh Growden punt for 49 yds, downed at the Alab 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:5957% → 56%
Q1 2:49
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
43.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+13
43.6%
Damien Harris run for 13 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
42.6%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 14Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+9
42.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Trevon Diggs for 9 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+3
42.9%
Joshua Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
42.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
42.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-1
42.6%
Joshua Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
43.7%
JK Scott punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 6:2844% → 47%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
44.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
44.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
44.5%
J.D. Moore run for 1 yd to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
45.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
46.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
46.8%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+11
46.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 11 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
47.5%
J.D. Moore run for 4 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
48.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
48.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+2
48.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 2 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
47.4%
Josh Growden punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:3055% → 56%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
45.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+6
44.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+28
44.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 28 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
42.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 11 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
41.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 21 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
40.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
41.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Damien HarrisSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
42.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
43.9%
Adam Griffith 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:3647% → 47%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
47.4%
Danny Etling run for 7 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
48.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
48.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
48.4%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
48.5%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
48.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
47.3%
Josh Growden punt for 51 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for no gain to the Alab 39 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (Aaron Robinson) to the Alab 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5955% → 53%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
45.3%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+4
45.7%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+4
45.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 1
OWN 14
-4
46.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (JK Scott) to the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0952% → 49%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
51.5%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
51.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+3
50.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 3 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
49.1%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
42.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3949% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
49.1%
Danny Etling sacked by Ryan Anderson and Reuben Foster for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+4
49.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
47.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+1
47.0%
Josh Growden punt for 38 yds , TEAM returns for 1 yd to the Alab 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Alab Trevon Diggs , return for 1 yd to the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:5156% → 55%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+52
43.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 52 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
41.2%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
41.3%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the LSU 5Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
42.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
44.7%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3149% → 47%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
49.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 7Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
47.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+8
46.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 8 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
47.0%
Josh Growden punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:1157% → 52%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
42.8%
Joshua Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-7
43.2%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+3
47.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Joshua Jacobs for 3 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
48.5%
JK Scott punt for 54 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for no gain to the LSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3149% → 48%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
49.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+1
49.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 10Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
48.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
47.8%
Josh Growden punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3556% → 57%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
43.7%
ArDarius Stewart run for 4 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-3
43.2%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Frank Herron for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 42 Jalen Hurts fumbled, forced by Frank Herron, recovered by LSU Arden Key , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3756% → 49%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
55.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 5 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
55.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-5
55.1%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (Danny Etling) to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-11
50.9%
Danny Etling sacked by Dalvin Tomlinson for a loss of 11 yards to the ALABAMA 49 LSU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Danny Etling) to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 19
OWN 49
0
49.0%
Josh Growden punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 5:5753% → 80%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
47.0%
Joshua Jacobs run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 5Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+22
48.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Miller Forristall for 22 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
46.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 8 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-5
44.3%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Harris, Damien, PENALTY ALABAMA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ALABAMA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+17
45.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Devin White) to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
42.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 12 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
42.0%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
41.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+2
41.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+10
43.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 10 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
40.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 8
OPP 20
-1
39.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+21
19.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:3626% → 27%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
25.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 13 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
27.4%
Danny Etling pass intercepted Minkah Fitzpatrick return for no gain to the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23FG
20 plays · 50 yds · 9:5180% → 95%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
20.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+8
19.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 8 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
19.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
18.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 7 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+4
16.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
15.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Calvin Ridley) to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+1
15.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 1 yd to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 14
OPP 39
-1
15.6%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+23
16.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 23 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
13.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 7 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 3
OPP 10
-1
12.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 4
OPP 11
-5
12.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Cam Robinson) to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+11
11.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 11 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
9.7%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
9.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 2Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
9.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Ross Pierschbacher) to the LSU 7Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
9.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Damien HarrisSimilar
Q4 2:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
5.1%
Adam Griffith 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:425% → 4%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
5.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to DeSean SmithSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
5.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 2 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
4.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to DeSean SmithSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
4.0%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to DeSean SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5297% → 97%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
3.2%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+2
2.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-2
2.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:08
Jalen Hurts run for 21 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-20.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:42
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 5 yds to the Alab 37
+12.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:32
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 44
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com