Try the model
UGA

Georgia 27 at Kentucky 24

UK
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Kroger Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:21 · Marshall Long punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Pregame prior−4.5Home team on offense+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:15: Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +14.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:07: Rodrigo Blankenship 49 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +9.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:12: Sony Michel run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jacob Eason pass to Isaac Nauta for Two-Point Conversion) — UGA win probability +28.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 2:47: Austin MacGinnis 25 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +18.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Rodrigo Blankenship 25 yd FG GOOD KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined — UGA win probability +32.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UK 4th & 3 at UK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:50UK 4th & 6 at UK 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:09UGA 4th & 23 at UGA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:26UGA 4th & 2 at UK 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.0%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:26UK 4th & 10 at UK 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:53UGA 4th & 9 at UK 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:53UK 4th & 7 at UK 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:05UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 49, down 1
    Close callPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:28UK 4th & 18 at UGA 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    54.9%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:21UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:15UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 43, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:07UGA 4th & 4 at UK 32, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%−1.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:51UGA 4th & 11 at UK 38, down 5
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00UK 4th & 17 at UK 13, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−7.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:24UK 4th & 6 at UK 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−2.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:47UK 4th & 7 at UGA 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−8.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−26.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:54UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:51UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:48UK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:15UK Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:12UGA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    54.8%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
40.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
40.2%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
40.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff Badet, broken up by Dominick SandersSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+1
40.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 34 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 1 yd to the Geo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:4359% → 60%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
40.6%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Geo 38Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
40.6%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+18
40.5%
Nick Chubb run for 18 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
40.5%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
41.1%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+38
39.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 38 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
40.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Stanley Williams for 9 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 0
0
40.2%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 30 GEORGIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Kent 30Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+4
40.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
40.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 2 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
40.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 38 KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
40.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
40.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 59 yds, downed at the Geo 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
40.2%
Nick Chubb run for 7 yds to the Geo 11Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+6
40.0%
Nick Chubb run for 6 yds to the Geo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
40.0%
Nick Chubb run for 11 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
39.9%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
39.7%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 37Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
39.6%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
39.4%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 36Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 14
OWN 36
-4
40.0%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 32Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 18
OWN 32
-5
40.2%
[SHOT], PENALTY UGA delay of game 5 yards to the UGA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 23
OWN 27
0
40.2%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete, broken up by Jordan JonesSimilar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 23
OWN 27
+10
40.4%
Marshall Long punt for 50 yds , Charles Walker returns for 10 yds to the Kent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 2:0640% → 48%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
40.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 12 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
40.7%
Benny Snell Jr. pass complete to Stephen Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 36 for a 1ST down to Jeff Badet for 22 yds to the Geo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
41.2%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+30
41.9%
Stanley Williams run for 30 yds to the Geo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 3:2056% → 57%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
44.2%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+51
43.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Javon Wims for 51 yds to the KENTUCKY 16 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
42.4%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+6
42.8%
Sony Michel run for 6 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+6
42.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 6 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
42.6%
Rodrigo Blankenship 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
43.8%
Stephen Johnson sacked by David Marshall for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 19Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+6
43.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 6 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
43.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
42.7%
Grant McKinniss punt for 37 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for no gain to the Geo 38 Isaiah McKenzie fumbled, recovered by Kent J.D. HarmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:1546% → 53%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
46.4%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Julian Rochester) to the Geo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
47.3%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Geo 13Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+13
52.8%
Stanley Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:5049% → 50%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
50.6%
Sony Michel run for 11 yds to the Geo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
50.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Sony Michel for 11 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
49.4%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+16
48.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 16 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
48.4%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-1
48.3%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+5
48.7%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK substitution infraction 5 yards to the UK33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+7
48.4%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
47.4%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-1
47.4%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
48.6%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+42
50.3%
Rodrigo Blankenship 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
52.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 12 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
53.7%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
54.7%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
53.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
52.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the Geo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:4948% → 50%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
51.6%
Sony Michel run for 9 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+11
50.1%
Sony Michel run for 11 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
49.3%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
49.9%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Reggie Davis, broken up by Courtney MigginsSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+8
50.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 8 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
49.7%
Marshall Long punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:5652% → 51%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
52.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+10
52.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 10 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
54.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
53.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 5 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-10
53.4%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass complete to T. Richardson for 14 yards to the UGA40, PENALTY UK holding (Kyle Meadows) 10 yards to the UK36, NO PLAY, timeout Kentucky, clock 00:03.Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+13
50.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 13 yds to the Kent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.9%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
51.6%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 33 Nick Chubb fumbled, forced by Josh Allen, recovered by Kent Chris WestrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:4658% → 52%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
57.5%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
57.5%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+2
56.3%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Geo 26Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 3
OPP 26
-10
54.9%
A. MacGinnis field goal attempt from 44 GOOD, clock 12:28, PENALTY UK holding (C.J. Conrad) 10 yards to the UGA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 13
OPP 36
-5
52.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Geo 41Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
52.3%
Grant McKinniss punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
53.0%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 16Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
53.5%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+4
54.8%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Sony Michel for 4 yds to the Geo 20Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
55.8%
Marshall Long punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 1:4857% → 73%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
57.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+41
55.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 26 yds to the KENTUCKY 30 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Dominick Sanders) to the Geo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
58.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 14 yds to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Geo 1Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
68.4%
Sony Michel run for 13 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
67.0%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
67.2%
Sony Michel run for 8 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
66.0%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 47Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-4
67.2%
GEORGIA Penalty, false start (Tyler Catalina) to the Geo 43Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
68.9%
Marshall Long punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
71.8%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
71.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to C.J. ConradSimilar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+20
70.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 20 yds Garrett Johnson fumbled, forced by Maurice Smith, recovered by Geo Maurice SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5234% → 41%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
66.2%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Javon Wims, broken up by Derrick BaitySimilar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
66.3%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+6
68.0%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Reggie Davis for 6 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
58.7%
Rodrigo Blankenship 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
63.5%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted Deandre Baker return for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
60.4%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
59.5%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+5
59.5%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
59.1%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the Geo 39Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+10
58.2%
[SHOT], Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Tyler Simmons, PENALTY UK holding (J.D. Harmon) 10 yards to the UGA49, 1ST DOWN UGA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
56.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terry Godwin for 14 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
55.7%
[SHOT], Sony Michel rush for 2 yards to the UK35 (Chris Westry), PENALTY UGA holding (Greg Pyke) 10 yards to the UK47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+1
57.8%
Jacob Eason run for 1 yd to the Kent 46Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 19
OPP 46
+8
58.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Javon Wims for 8 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
58.0%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Isaiah McKenzieSimilar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
60.8%
Marshall Long punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0366% → 63%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
66.0%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-8
65.9%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Julian Rochester for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 11 Stephen Johnson fumbled, recovered by Kent Jon Toth , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 11
+2
63.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 2 yds to the Kent 13 KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+7
62.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 35 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 7 yds to the Kent 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
58.1%
Nick Chubb run for 11 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
56.5%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
56.6%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the Kent 28 Nick Chubb fumbled, forced by Jordan Jones, recovered by Kent Courtney MigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0068% → 65%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
68.0%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+2
68.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-2
67.3%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
65.4%
Grant McKinniss punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the Geo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1237% → 72%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
63.5%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
64.1%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Javon Wims for 7 yds to the Geo 40Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
61.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terry Godwin for 5 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
60.8%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Javon WimsSimilar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+29
62.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 29 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
56.7%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
28.1%
Sony Michel run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jacob Eason pass to Isaac Nauta for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26FG
17 plays · 68 yds · 6:2539% → 58%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
39.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+24
37.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 24 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
44.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Geo 41Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+8
44.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, sideline interference (5 Yards) to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
46.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Geo 26Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+1
46.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Geo 25Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+3
44.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Geo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
46.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Geo 16Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+7
46.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Geo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
47.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Geo 9Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
47.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Geo 7Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 2:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
58.2%
Austin MacGinnis 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 27FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 2:4751% → 95%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 2 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
48.4%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Javon Wims for 12 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
45.0%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+12
43.6%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Javon Wims for 12 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
42.3%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Terry Godwin for 16 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
40.1%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+13
39.4%
Sony Michel run for 13 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
38.4%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+25
4.8%
Rodrigo Blankenship 25 yd FG GOOD KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Rodrigo Blankenship 25 yd FG GOOD KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined
-32.6
TD · Q4 9:12
Sony Michel run for 26 yds for a TD, (Jacob Eason pass to Isaac Nauta for Two-Point Conversion)
-28.6
FG · Q4 2:47
Austin MacGinnis 25 yd FG GOOD
+18.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com