Try the model
VAN

Vanderbilt 16 at Auburn 23

AUB
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:15 · Sam Loy punt for 53 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior+9.5Home team on offense+10.3Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score differential+2.8Blowout margin+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:04: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 8 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +2.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:38: Sean White pass complete to Darius Slayton for 21 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +8.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:57: Daniel Carlson 53 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +3.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:28: Tommy Openshaw 47 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +7.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 11:01: Daniel Carlson 34 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +7.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 6VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:16VAN 4th & 3 at AUB 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:30VAN 4th & 1 at AUB 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:29AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:18VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:17AUB 4th & 5 at VAN 28, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:17VAN 4th & 6 at AUB 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:38VAN 4th & 15 at VAN 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:57AUB 4th & 4 at VAN 36, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:28VAN 4th & 6 at AUB 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−6.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:01AUB 4th & 4 at VAN 16, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%−0.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−11.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:15VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 47, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:29AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.9%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:17VAN 4th & 15 at VAN 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:41AUB 4th & 16 at VAN 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    90.8%−3.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:00VAN 4th & 18 at VAN 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:44AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:04VAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:38AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:385% → 5%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
95.5%
Trent Sherfield run for 19 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
95.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 9 yds to the Aub 47 Khari Blasingame fumbled, recovered by VandySimilar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+6
95.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Dallas Rivers for 6 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
95.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 7 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
94.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
94.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+52
94.9%
Tommy Openshaw 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:1695% → 95%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
94.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
94.8%
John Franklin III run for 9 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
94.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 12 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
94.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
94.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
94.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Vandy 31Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+6
94.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
94.5%
John Franklin III run for 19 yds to the Vandy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
94.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Vandy 3Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:095% → 6%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
94.6%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
94.6%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
94.5%
Shurmur, Kyle pass incomplete to Lipscomb, Kalija, PENALTY AUBURN personal foul (Davis, Deshaun) 15 yards to the VANDERBILT37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
94.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
94.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+14
94.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Latevius Rayford for 14 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
94.0%
Kalija Lipscomb run for 2 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
93.9%
Darrius Sims run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+3
93.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 3 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
93.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Bailey McElwain for no gain to the Aub 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4494% → 93%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
93.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+7
93.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 7 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
93.5%
John Franklin III pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
93.0%
Kevin Phillips punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:117% → 7%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
93.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 12 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
93.4%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
93.3%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Vandy 21Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-2
93.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 19Similar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 12
OWN 19
+6
93.3%
TEAM punt for 28 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 6 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
92.8%
John Franklin III run for 7 yds to the Vandy 34 John Franklin III fumbled, forced by LaDarius Wiley, recovered by VandySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:567% → 12%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
92.8%
Darrius Sims run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
50
+1
92.4%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+14
92.2%
Ralph Webb run for 14 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
91.8%
Ralph Webb run for 10 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
91.7%
Darrius Sims run for 6 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
91.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 5 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
91.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
91.2%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
88.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 8 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 2:4189% → 90%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
89.2%
John Franklin III pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
89.1%
John Franklin III run for 8 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
89.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 7 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+10
89.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 10 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
89.7%
John Franklin III run for 12 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
89.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+1
89.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
89.1%
John Franklin III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
90.0%
Daniel Carlson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 6:4511% → 20%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
88.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 4 yds to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+5
88.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 5 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-5
87.6%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 31Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+9
88.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 9 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
87.0%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
86.3%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
85.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 17 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
84.7%
Trent Sherfield run for 4 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
84.3%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+6
84.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 6 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
83.4%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+3
80.8%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+3
81.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 3 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
80.3%
Tommy Openshaw 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5081% → 80%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
81.2%
John Franklin III run for no gain to the Aub 7Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+4
80.9%
John Franklin III run for 4 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+3
79.8%
John Franklin III pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 3 yds to the Aub 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1781% → 89%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.9%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
81.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 11 yds to the Aub 45 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
81.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
80.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
50
-9
81.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the AUBURN 49 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 19
OWN 41
+1
79.1%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 1 yd to the Aub 42Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+9
78.7%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 9 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+14
78.7%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 14 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
81.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+5
80.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
80.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
88.5%
Sean White pass complete to Darius Slayton for 21 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5314% → 14%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
85.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 13 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
84.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 33Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
85.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
86.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q3 9:38
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
86.5%
Sam Loy punt for 42 yds, downed at the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:3486% → 90%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.2%
Sean White run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
86.4%
Sean White pass complete to Chandler Cox for 15 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
87.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
50
+4
87.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
86.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
87.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the Vandy 42Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
86.6%
Sean White pass complete to Darius Slayton for 6 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
86.3%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+53
89.5%
Daniel Carlson 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 7:2913% → 23%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.9%
Trent Sherfield run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
86.5%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
87.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 13 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
85.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+2
84.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 2 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-5
84.6%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Ean Pfeifer) to the Vandy 40Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+11
85.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 11 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
84.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-4
84.9%
Josh Crawford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 47Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+20
86.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 20 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
82.5%
Darrius Sims run for 5 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-1
82.0%
Khari Blasingame run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
85.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for no gain to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
77.4%
Tommy Openshaw 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:0683% → 90%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
83.0%
Sean White pass complete to Jason Smith for 20 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
83.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 16 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
84.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
84.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 11:27
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+3
82.8%
Sean White pass complete to Jason Smith for 3 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
90.2%
Daniel Carlson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3713% → 14%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 15 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
85.3%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
85.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+3
85.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 3 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
86.0%
Sam Loy punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3690% → 90%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 14 yds to the Aub 34 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 6
OWN 24
-8
90.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 26 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 16Similar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 14
OWN 16
0
90.3%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+8
90.6%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 8 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
90.3%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
89.6%
Kevin Phillips punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0313% → 10%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
87.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 12 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
86.1%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 39Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 13
OWN 39
-2
88.1%
Darrius Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 37Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
89.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
89.7%
Sam Loy punt for 44 yds, downed at the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 2:1493% → 95%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
93.2%
Stanton Truitt run for 1 yd to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+8
93.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+60
94.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 60 yds to the Vandy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
95.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Vandy 12Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-1
96.1%
Eli Stove run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 11
OPP 13
-5
96.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 18Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 16
OPP 18
+36
95.1%
Daniel Carlson 36 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Zach CunninghamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20INT
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:588% → 14%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
92.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-8
93.0%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Carl Lawson for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 20Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 18
OWN 20
0
93.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 18
OWN 20
+29
93.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 29 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
91.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+21
91.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 21 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
85.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
86.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Joshua Holsey return for no gain to the Aub 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:38
Sean White pass complete to Darius Slayton for 21 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+8.1
FG · Q4 13:28
Tommy Openshaw 47 yd FG GOOD
-7.9
FG · Q4 11:01
Daniel Carlson 34 yd FG GOOD
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com