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NMSU

New Mexico State 10 at Texas A&M 52

TA&M
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:38 · Peyton Theisler punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior+47.9Home team on offense+1.6Score differential+0.6Blowout margin+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:42: Trayveon Williams run for 12 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — NMSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 14:44: Daniel LaCamera 36 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:42: Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:18: Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 41 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:38NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:38NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:07TA&M 4th & 13 at NMSU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:07NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:44TA&M 4th & 11 at NMSU 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:44NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:44NMSU 4th & 8 at TA&M 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:46TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 11, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:56NMSU 4th & 12 at TA&M 32, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:05NMSU 4th & 10 at TA&M 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:05TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 34, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:27NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:43NMSU 4th & 8 at TA&M 39, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:58NMSU 4th & 15 at TA&M 35, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:36TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 28, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:00NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 41, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:11NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:12TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 40, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:08NMSU 4th & 3 at TA&M 38, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:42TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:42TA&M Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:18TA&M Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:50TA&M Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:04NMSU Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:11TA&M Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose Iii for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:0099% → 99%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+19
99.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 19 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
99.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 11 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
99.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 18 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
99.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 10 yds to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 12 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
99.1%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Otaro Alaka for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 10Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+3
99.1%
Larry Rose Iii run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+3
99.2%
Larry Rose Iii run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 8
OWN 16
+70
99.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 54 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 70 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.1%
Tyler Rogers run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
99.1%
Larry Rose Iii run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 4 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:5699% → 99%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 12 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.1%
Trevor Knight run for 6 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
99.1%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
99.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 11 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.1%
Trevor Knight run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
99.1%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+10
99.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 10 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-4
99.1%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 33 Trevor Knight fumbled,Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+1
99.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+50
98.9%
Daniel LaCamera 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
98.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
98.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+3
98.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose Iii for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 2:4999% → 99%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
98.8%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
98.8%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 3
OWN 30
-5
98.8%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+10
98.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 10 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Keith FordSimilar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
98.8%
Keith Ford run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+31
98.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Jamal Jeffery for 31 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
98.9%
Trevor Knight sacked by Noah Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 17
0
98.7%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
98.7%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+36
98.9%
Daniel LaCamera 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
98.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Nick HarveySimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
98.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
98.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
50
+2
98.8%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
98.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 7 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-2
98.8%
Xavier Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 3
OPP 43
-5
98.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 48Similar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
98.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.8%
Trevor Knight run for no gain to the TexAM 11Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
98.8%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy Noil, broken up by Jacob NwangwaSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
98.8%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete, broken up by Rodney ButlerSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 10
OWN 11
0
98.7%
Shane Tripucka punt for 50 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
98.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose Iii for 9 yds to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+7
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 7 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Anthony Muse, PENALTY TAMU pass interference (Nick Starkel) 15 yards to the TAMU30, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
98.5%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+3
98.5%
Larry Rose Iii run for 3 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Nick HarveySimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 12
OPP 32
0
98.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 12
OPP 32
0
98.6%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan BooneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:2899% → 99%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
98.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
98.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
98.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
98.7%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
98.7%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+9
98.6%
Keith Ford run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
98.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Tanner Schorp for 4 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+19
98.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 19 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
98.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+3
98.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12FG
19 plays · 59 yds · 2:371% → 1%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
99.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
99.0%
Larry Rose Iii run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
98.9%
Peyton Theisler punt 45 yards to the TAMU25, Christian Kirk return to the TAMU43, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TAMU roughing the kicker (Alex Sezer Jr.) 15 yards to the NMSU45, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
98.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 49 yards to the TAMU6 (Nick Harvey), PENALTY NMSU holding (Sage Doxtater) 10 yards to the NMSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+14
98.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 14 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
98.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose Iii for 8 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
98.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 16 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
98.7%
Larry Rose Iii run for 6 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
98.7%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the TexAM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
98.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
98.8%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
98.9%
Parker Davidson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.3%
James White run for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 4 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Shane Tripucka punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:4299% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
99.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
99.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 41 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Clayton Granch for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.7%
Larry Rose Iii run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-3
99.7%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Kingsley Keke for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+73
99.8%
Peyton Theisler punt for 45 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 73 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
99.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for 34 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ ClarkSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.8%
Larry Rose Iii run for 2 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 12:27
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for no gain to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
99.9%
Kendall Bussey run for 1 yd to the TexAM 7Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+7
99.9%
Kendall Bussey run for 7 yds to the TexAM 14Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+6
99.9%
Kendall Bussey run for 6 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 10 yds Christian Kirk fumbled, forced by Rodney Butler, recovered by NMxSt Dalton HerringtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Anthony MuseSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers run for no gain to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-5
99.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Claude George for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 35Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 15
OPP 35
+14
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Clayton Granch for 14 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
Kendall Bussey run for 2 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Kendall Bussey for 5 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Braden Mann punt for 44 yds , OJ Clark returns for 5 yds to the NMxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
99.9%
Larry Rose Iii run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Josh Aganon for 2 yds to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+29
99.9%
Kendall Bussey run for 29 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
99.9%
Kendall Bussey run for 22 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.9%
Kendall Bussey run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, offside defense (Terrill Hanks) to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Jamal Jeffery for 2 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+28
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Edward Pope for 28 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
James White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:460% → 0%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Xavier Hall for 23 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.9%
Tyler Rogers run for 8 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
Xavier Hall run for 1 yd to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Xavier Hall run for 3 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Anthony Muse for 15 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, face mask (13 yards) (13 Yards) to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose Iii for 9 yds to the TexAM 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Clifford ChattmanSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 3 yds for a TD TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Parker Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 5 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+18
99.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 18 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
99.9%
Kwame Etwi run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+15
99.9%
Jake Hubenak run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
100.0%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Kalvin Cline for 17 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrian TaylorSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Xavier Hall run for no gain to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Peyton Theisler punt for 42 yds, downed at the TexAM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
100.0%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 26Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+4
100.0%
Kendall Bussey run for 4 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+14
100.0%
Kendall Bussey run for 14 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete, broken up by Terrill HanksSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
100.0%
Kwame Etwi run for 3 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-7
100.0%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Terrill Hanks for a loss of 7 yards to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Braden Mann punt for 50 yds, fair catch by OJ Clark at the NMxSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
100.0%
Xavier Hall run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
100.0%
Gamar Girdy run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Nick Jeanty pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Roney ElamSimilar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+17
100.0%
Jason Huntley run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
100.0%
Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 1
50
+5
100.0%
Gamar Girdy run for 5 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
100.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to Josh Aganon for 8 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+1
100.0%
Nick Jeanty pass complete to OJ Clark for 1 yd to the TexAM 36Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-2
100.0%
Gamar Girdy run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 38 Gamar Girdy fumbled, forced by Claude George, recovered by NMxSt Nick JeantySimilar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Nick Jeanty pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
100.0%
Kendall Bussey run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+9
100.0%
Conner McQueen run for 9 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:18
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 41 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 3:42
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 11:42
Trayveon Williams run for 12 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
-0.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com