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UK

Kentucky 35 at Missouri 21

MIZ
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Drew Lock pass complete to Chris Black for 10 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:53: Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 65 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +7.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:40: Benny Snell Jr. 1 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +10.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:22: Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 27 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +10.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:17: Stephen Johnson pass complete to Stanley Williams for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +12.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:13: Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 57 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:45UK 4th & 1 at MIZ 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:13UK 4th & 7 at MIZ 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:48MIZ 4th & 5 at UK 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:19MIZ 4th & 19 at MIZ 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:22MIZ 4th & 8 at UK 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:30UK 4th & 6 at UK 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:53MIZ 4th & 3 at UK 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−1.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:47MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:48MIZ 4th & 5 at UK 46, down 21
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:16UK 4th & 1 at UK 21, up 21
    Close callPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:26UK 4th & 3 at UK 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:02MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:38MIZ 4th & 6 at UK 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−7.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:35MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:49MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:05UK 4th & 7 at UK 23, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:22UK 4th & 2 at MIZ 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:06UK 4th & 12 at MIZ 37, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:41UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:53UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:40UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:22MIZ Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:17UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:54UK Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:03MIZ Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:13MIZ Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:4239% → 39%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
61.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 31 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
61.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 6 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+2
61.0%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
60.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 12:45
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
61.0%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
60.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. pass complete to Ryan Timmons for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+6
60.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 6 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
60.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
60.9%
Austin MacGinnis 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1561% → 61%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
61.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 8 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
61.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 8 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
61.5%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
50
+1
61.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 1 yd to the Kent 49Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
61.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
61.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:5739% → 42%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
61.0%
Stanley Williams run for 12 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
60.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 8 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
60.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+60
58.0%
Stanley Williams run for 60 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:0459% → 58%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
58.5%
Damarea Crockett run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+10
58.3%
Marvin Zanders run for 10 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-15
57.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 15 yards to the Misso 10Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 19
OWN 10
0
57.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:3743% → 44%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.4%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+31
57.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 31 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
56.4%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+7
56.0%
Stanley Williams run for 7 yds to the Misso 34 Stanley Williams fumbled, recovered by Misso Charles Harris , return for 12 yds to the Misso 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:5957% → 57%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+25
57.3%
Johnathon Johnson run for 25 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
58.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
58.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
57.9%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
57.1%
Corey Fatony punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3844% → 45%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
56.4%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
55.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 9 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
55.6%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-1
54.8%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-1
54.6%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Brandon Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 38Similar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
55.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3656% → 55%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
55.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 9 yds to the Misso 46Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
56.3%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
56.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 7 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
56.5%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-2
56.2%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
55.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:5446% → 54%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 14:41
1ST & 5
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to C.J. ConradSimilar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
53.4%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
53.2%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
52.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Greg Hart for 1 yd to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+65
45.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 65 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:0147% → 45%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
46.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 12 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.8%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Misso 37Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
45.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
44.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Richaud FloydSimilar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
44.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:5856% → 70%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
43.7%
Stanley Williams run for 8 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+20
43.0%
Stanley Williams run for 20 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
42.0%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
42.2%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+11
41.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 11 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
40.6%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.2%
Benny Snell Jr. 1 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:4732% → 31%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.6%
Marvin Zanders run for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
32.9%
Marvin Zanders run for 4 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
32.0%
Marvin Zanders run for 5 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
32.5%
Marvin Zanders pass complete to Sean Culkin for 9 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+1
33.3%
Alex Ross run for 1 yd to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
32.4%
Marvin Zanders run for 4 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
32.2%
Alex Ross run for 1 yd to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
31.5%
Marvin Zanders run for no gain to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
30.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2470% → 72%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
30.1%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
29.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+4
29.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 4 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 1
OWN 21
-4
28.2%
Grant McKinniss punt for 38 yds , Chris Black returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 1:4528% → 39%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
28.1%
Drew Lock run for 15 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
29.1%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-5
29.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 48Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
28.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+17
28.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
29.1%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
28.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-5
27.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+27
38.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 27 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4865% → 67%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.2%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
33.6%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
33.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-6
33.5%
Grant McKinniss punt for 38 yds , Chris Black returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1633% → 34%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
33.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 4 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
33.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+1
33.0%
Drew Lock run for 1 yd to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+4
34.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 42 yds , Charles Walker returns for 4 yds to the Kent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:4667% → 71%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
33.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 8 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
32.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan TimmonsSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
32.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Dorian Baker for 3 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
31.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 12 yds to the MISSOURI 44 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Misso 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
30.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+13
29.2%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted Logan Cheadle return for 13 yds to the Misso 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
32.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 8 yds to the Misso 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 3:1733% → 30%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
32.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 15 yds to the Misso 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
33.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
34.1%
Drew Lock run for 7 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
34.1%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+18
33.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 18 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
34.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+24
34.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 24 yds to the Kent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
33.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
33.4%
Damarea Crockett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 7Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
30.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 1 yd to the Kent 6Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
30.2%
Tucker McCann 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 6:1673% → 95%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
27.2%
Stanley Williams run for 8 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-1
25.6%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
26.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 4 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
23.3%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+4
21.8%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
21.3%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
20.5%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
20.1%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Misso 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
18.5%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 32 yds to the Misso 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
17.6%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 13Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
17.5%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Misso 13Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+13
5.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Stanley Williams for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:328% → 7%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
8.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 12 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
8.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 9 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+4
8.0%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
7.9%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
7.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Kendall BlantonSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+4
7.7%
Drew Lock run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
6.9%
Corey Fatony punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:3095% → 99%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
4.7%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+28
4.5%
Stanley Williams run for 28 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
3.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
3.5%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+19
3.4%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 19 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
3.0%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
0.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 18 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.2%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.1%
Nate Strong run for 9 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
1.1%
Drew Lock run for 7 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
1.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Misso 26Similar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+7
0.9%
Nate Strong run for 7 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 18
OWN 33
0
0.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Chris BlackSimilar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+7
0.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Nate Strong for 7 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
0.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:3699% → 99%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.8%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
0.7%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
0.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 18Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+5
0.7%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 10:05
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+63
0.6%
Grant McKinniss punt for 41 yds , Johnathon Johnson returns for 63 yds to the Kent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.2%
Josh Augusta run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 32 yds · 5:2498% → 99%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
1.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
1.8%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
1.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
1.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
1.5%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
1.4%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
1.1%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 9
50
0
0.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 9
50
+7
0.8%
Stanley Williams run for 7 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
0.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 27TD
1 play · 57 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
3.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 57 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 28PUNT
11 plays · 8 yds · 2:5496% → 98%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
3.8%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Misso 45Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
2.8%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+4
2.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
2.6%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
2.4%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
1.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Misso 32Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 7
OPP 32
-5
2.1%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Misso 37Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
2.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 29Uncategorized
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
1.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 5 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
1.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 10 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
1.1%
Drew Lock sacked by Josh Allen for 0 yards to the Misso 35 Drew Lock fumbled, recovered by Misso Paul Adams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
1.1%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+10
1.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Chris Black for 10 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:17
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Stanley Williams for 13 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q2 2:22
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 27 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q2 8:40
Benny Snell Jr. 1 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com