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SAM

Samford 41 at Mississippi State 56

MSST
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadSAM aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreSAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:56 · Devlin Hodges run for 5 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 221Pregame prior+0.9Home team on offense+26.0Score differential+10.5Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:43: Donald Gray 74 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +5.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:41: Karel Hamilton 45 Yd pass from Devlin Hodges (Reece Everett PAT blocked) — SAM win probability +5.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:20: Donald Gray 51 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +6.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:22: Kelvin McKnight 7 Yd pass from Devlin Hodges (Reece Everett Kick) — SAM win probability +5.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:18: Roland Adams 2 Yd Run (TaDarryl Marshall Run for Two-Point Conversion) — SAM win probability +9.1 pts (now 15%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7SAM made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 9:59SAM 4th & 5 at MSST 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32SAM 4th & 3 at SAM 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:07SAM 4th & 8 at MSST 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:00SAM 4th & 12 at MSST 16, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:00MSST 4th & 9 at SAM 32, up 8
    Close callWent for it · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:10SAM 4th & 7 at SAM 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:19MSST 4th & 10 at SAM 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    88.0%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:20MSST 4th & 1 at SAM 1, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:54SAM 4th & 1 at SAM 22, down 8
    Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:09MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 42, up 8
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:00SAM 4th & 1 at MSST 37, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:13SAM 4th & 19 at MSST 44, down 8
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:57SAM 4th & 8 at MSST 36, down 8
    Close callPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−0.3
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:32MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 43, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:56MSST 4th & 5 at SAM 5, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−7.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:30SAM 4th & 10 at SAM 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:20MSST 4th & 5 at SAM 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:33SAM 4th & 3 at SAM 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:56SAM 4th & 1 at MSST 19, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−1.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:25SAM 4th & 18 at MSST 22, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8SAM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:21MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:59SAM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:19MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 5:21MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:59SAM Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:43MSST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:03MSST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:41SAM Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:20MSST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:48MSST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 2:22SAM Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:18SAM Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:14MSST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:2493% → 93%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
92.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+17
92.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
50
+8
92.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds to the Samf 42Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
92.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+17
92.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 17 yds to the Samf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
92.6%
Malik Dear 25 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 2TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:167% → 9%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.5%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 6 yds to the Samf 31Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
92.5%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 9 yds to the Samf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
92.4%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 8 yds to the Samf 48Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+7
92.3%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 7 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.3%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for no gain to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
92.2%
K'rondis Larry run for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+8
92.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 8 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
92.0%
SAMFORD Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
92.1%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+4
92.1%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 4 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+6
92.0%
K'rondis Larry run for 6 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+30
91.4%
Karel Hamilton 30 Yd pass from Devlin Hodges (Reece Everett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2692% → 92%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.5%
Keith Mixon run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
92.0%
Donald Gray 71 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:338% → 8%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.9%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.9%
Devlin Hodges run for 7 yds to the Samf 32Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
91.9%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
91.9%
Austin Barnard punt for 38 yds , Fred Ross returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:0192% → 93%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
91.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 12 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
92.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
92.0%
Malik Dear run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+14
91.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 14 yds to the Samf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
91.9%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 39Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+3
91.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Samf 36Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+9
91.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the Samf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+21
91.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 21 yds to the Samf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
91.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the Samf 1Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.0%
Nick Fitzgerald 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 6FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 0:548% → 9%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+58
92.4%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Devon Schmitt for 58 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
92.0%
Roland Adams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
91.9%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
92.1%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
91.3%
Reece Everett 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7INT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:4192% → 91%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.6%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
91.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-15
91.4%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass complete to Mixon, Keith for 72 yards to the SAMFORD0, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Thomas, Jordan) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+1
91.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Roosevelt Donaldson return for 1 yd to the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 8FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:079% → 9%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
90.8%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to K'rondis LarrySimilar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-10
90.8%
Larry, K'rondis rush for 12 yards to the MISSSTATE2, PENALTY SAMFORD holding (Amos, Royus) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+8
90.8%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to K'rondis Larry for 8 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 12
OPP 16
0
90.9%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+33
91.1%
Reece Everett 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9INT
12 plays · 43 yds · 2:4591% → 90%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
90.9%
Nick Gibson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
91.0%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
91.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
90.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 9 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
91.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 4 yds to the Samf 47Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-5
91.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Farrod Green) to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+19
90.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 19 yds to the Samf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
91.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
91.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+1
90.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the Samf 32Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 9
OPP 32
0
90.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Jamond Glass return for no gain to the Samf 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:449% → 9%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
90.7%
Roland Adams run for 6 yds to the Samf 15Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+2
90.6%
Roland Adams run for 2 yds to the Samf 17Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 2
OWN 17
-5
90.7%
Roland Adams run for a loss of 5 yards to the Samf 12Similar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
90.8%
Austin Barnard punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:4691% → 90%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
90.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 14 yds to the Samf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
90.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
90.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
90.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
89.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kelvin McKnight at the Samf 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0810% → 10%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
90.3%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+19
90.4%
Devlin Hodges pass intercepted Brandon Bryant return for 19 yds to the Samf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3791% → 90%
Q2 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
90.5%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Samf 4Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
90.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Samf 1Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Samf 1Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Samf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:1410% → 10%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+12
90.4%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 12 yds to the Samf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
90.1%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+3
90.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Roland Adams for 3 yds to the Samf 16Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+6
90.3%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Devon Schmitt for 6 yds to the Samf 22Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
90.5%
Austin Barnard punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3690% → 90%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
90.1%
Keith Mixon run for 7 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
90.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
90.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
89.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 16TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:0110% → 17%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
89.8%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 4 yds to the Samf 24Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
89.7%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to K'rondis LarrySimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+56
90.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 56 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
88.1%
Devlin Hodges run for 8 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
83.1%
Andrew Harris 12 Yd pass from Devlin Hodges (Reece Everett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
89.8%
Donald Gray 74 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 18PUNT
16 plays · 50 yds · 4:1710% → 10%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
89.9%
K'rondis Larry run for 3 yds to the Samf 9Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+14
89.9%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 14 yds to the Samf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
89.4%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 4 yds to the Samf 27Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
89.0%
K'rondis Larry run for 2 yds to the Samf 29Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+25
89.1%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 25 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
87.6%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 4 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-2
87.6%
K'rondis Larry run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+7
87.9%
Devlin Hodges run for 7 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
88.1%
Devlin Hodges run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.7%
Roland Adams run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
87.5%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-9
88.6%
Devlin Hodges sacked by Nelson Adams and Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 19
OPP 44
0
89.7%
Austin Barnard punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
89.9%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:4811% → 12%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.7%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 7 yds to the Samf 32Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
87.9%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 6 yds to the Samf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
88.1%
Devlin Hodges run for 3 yds to the Samf 41Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+21
87.8%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 21 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
87.1%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 2 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
86.9%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
87.1%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Devon SchmittSimilar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
88.2%
Devlin Hodges punt for 35 yds, downed at the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 4:4589% → 94%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+11
88.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 11 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
88.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+5
88.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+22
88.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 22 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
89.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
89.3%
Keith Mixon run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+15
89.2%
Keith Mixon run for 15 yds to the Samf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
89.8%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Samf 33Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-1
90.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 34Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+15
89.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 15 yds to the Samf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
89.9%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the Samf 11Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
94.4%
Fred Ross 11 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 22TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:138% → 13%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.5%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnightSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
92.7%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to TaDarryl Marshall for 3 yds to the Samf 38Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+9
92.7%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 9 yds to the Samf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
92.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+45
86.9%
Karel Hamilton 45 Yd pass from Devlin Hodges (Reece Everett PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0089% → 96%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.1%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
89.3%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
89.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
95.6%
Donald Gray 51 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 24INT TD
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:167% → 2%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
93.4%
TaDarryl Marshall pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+21
94.1%
Devlin Hodges pass intercepted Maurice Smitherman return for 29 yds to the Samf 8 Maurice Smitherman fumbled, recovered by Samf Kelvin McKnight SAMFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (Royus Amos) to the Samf 8Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 26
OWN 8
0
94.4%
Devlin Hodges pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 26
OWN 8
+11
94.5%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Chris Shelling for 11 yds to the Samf 19Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 15
OWN 19
-5
94.4%
Hodges, Devlin pass complete to Harris, Aaron for 55 yards to the MISSSTATE26, PENALTY SAMFORD ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SAMFORD14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+9
94.4%
Devlin Hodges run for 9 yds to the Samf 23Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-1
94.1%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 22Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+35
98.4%
DeAndre Ward 35 Yd Interception Return (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 25TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:182% → 7%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+68
98.4%
K'rondis Larry run for 68 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.8%
Kelvin McKnight 7 Yd pass from Devlin Hodges (Reece Everett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4396% → 96%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
95.5%
Nick Gibson run for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
96.0%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Aaron Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+11
95.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-5
95.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Martinas Rankin) to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
95.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
95.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 22 yds, downed at the Samf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 27TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:026% → 15%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
94.2%
Devlin Hodges run for 5 yds to the Samf 40Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
94.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 6 yds to the Samf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
94.1%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
94.1%
Devlin Hodges run for 2 yds to the Samf 48Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+10
94.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 10 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
94.0%
K'rondis Larry run for 15 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
93.2%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 6 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
93.2%
Devlin Hodges run for 5 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
93.2%
K'rondis Larry run for 3 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+5
93.2%
Roland Adams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+6
93.8%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 6 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.7%
Roland Adams 2 Yd Run (TaDarryl Marshall Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28MISSED FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:0690% → 91%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
90.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for no gain to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down SAMFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (Jared Holloway) to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down. Jared Holloway ejected for targetingSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
91.5%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass complete to Ross, Fred for 13 yards to the SAMFORD40, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding 10 yards to the MISSSTATE37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+10
90.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
91.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 13 yds to the Samf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
91.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 33 yds to the Samf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
91.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for a loss of 1 yard to the Samf 8Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
91.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Samf 5Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q4 8:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+24
90.6%
Westin Graves 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2010% → 9%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.8%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Kelvin McKnightSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
90.0%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q4 8:38
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
90.8%
Devlin Hodges pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
91.1%
Austin Barnard punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 30TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:0692% → 98%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
91.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 18 yds to the Samf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
92.6%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Samf 33Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
92.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the Samf 26Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-4
92.6%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Samf 30Similar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+18
92.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Samf 25 for a 1ST down SAMFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (Horace Roberts) to the Samf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
93.3%
Keith Mixon run for 5 yds to the Samf 7Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
94.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Samf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.6%
Nick Fitzgerald 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 31DOWNS
25 plays · 48 yds · 4:303% → 1%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
96.6%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the Samf 21Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+8
97.3%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 8 yds to the Samf 29Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+1
97.1%
Devlin Hodges run for 1 yd to the Samf 30Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+3
97.2%
Roland Adams run for 3 yds to the Samf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
97.1%
Devlin Hodges run for 4 yds to the Samf 37Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+10
97.1%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 10 yds to the Samf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
97.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Kelvin McKnight for 6 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
96.8%
Devlin Hodges pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
97.0%
Devlin Hodges run for 7 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
96.9%
Devlin Hodges run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
96.3%
Devlin Hodges pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+7
96.8%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to TaDarryl Marshall for 7 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
95.9%
Devlin Hodges pass incomplete to Karel HamiltonSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
96.2%
K'rondis Larry run for 2 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+7
97.3%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Andrew Harris for 7 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+5
97.1%
Devlin Hodges run for 5 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-14
96.9%
Devlin Hodges sacked by Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 21 SAMFORD Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Devlin Hodges) to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 17
OPP 21
-9
97.2%
Devlin Hodges sacked by Will Coleman for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 26
OPP 30
+8
99.0%
Devlin Hodges pass complete to Karel Hamilton for 8 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 18
OPP 22
0
99.2%
Devlin Hodges pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:18
Roland Adams 2 Yd Run (TaDarryl Marshall Run for Two-Point Conversion)
-9.1
TD · Q3 5:20
Donald Gray 51 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Westin Graves Kick)
+6.5
TD · Q3 2:22
Kelvin McKnight 7 Yd pass from Devlin Hodges (Reece Everett Kick)
-5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com