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AUB

Auburn 40 at Ole Miss 29

MISS
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-9.4MISS 44.6%Daniel Carlson 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 30 - HOME 29 · Q4 12:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:25 · Daniel Carlson 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense−6.4Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:11: Sean White pass complete to Jalen Harris for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — AUB win probability +20.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:30: Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 10 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +23.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:25: Daniel Carlson 30 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +9.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:13: Daniel Carlson 47 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +13.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:58: Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +14.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 1:50AUB 4th & 10 at MISS 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−2.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:14MISS 4th & 3 at AUB 3, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−4.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:27MISS 4th & 1 at AUB 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−1.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:10MISS 4th & 9 at AUB 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:50AUB 4th & 7 at MISS 15, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:05MISS 4th & 9 at AUB 9, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−8.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:27MISS 4th & 1 at AUB 3, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    54.4%−3.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−14.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:24AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 30, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:12MISS 4th & 20 at MISS 48, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−4.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:25AUB 4th & 10 at MISS 12, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−3.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−14.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:25MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 33, down 1
    Close callPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:13AUB 4th & 2 at MISS 30, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%−5.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−10.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:58MISS 4th & 6 at AUB 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−1.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:51AUB 4th & 2 at MISS 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:12MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:27AUB Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:36MISS Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:33AUB Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:11AUB Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:30MISS Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:58AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 3:4847% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
46.8%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+7
46.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 7 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
46.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete, broken up by Joshua HolseySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
46.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 7 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
46.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 4 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
46.8%
Chad Kelly run for 1 yd to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+10
46.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
46.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
46.8%
Eugene Brazley run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
46.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete, broken up by Montravius AdamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+20
46.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 20 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
46.8%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 15Similar
Q1 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
49.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 15 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 3:4051% → 53%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
48.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the Aub 10Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+15
48.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 15 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
48.6%
Sean White pass incomplete, broken up by Marquis HaynesSimilar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
48.8%
Sean White pass complete to Kyle Davis for 9 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
48.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+11
48.4%
Stanton Truitt run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
50
+5
48.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
48.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+41
47.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 41 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5148% → 53%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
47.9%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
47.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 10 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
48.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 14 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
48.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+21
48.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Taz Zettergren for 21 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
52.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 26 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:4649% → 49%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.4%
Stanton Truitt run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
51.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
51.5%
Sean White run for 8 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
51.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+17
50.9%
Sean White pass complete to Darius Slayton for 17 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
50.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+12
50.4%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 12 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
49.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
50.0%
Sean White pass incomplete to Jason SmithSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
50.5%
Sean White pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
50.8%
Daniel Carlson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 2:3651% → 55%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
50.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 21 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
51.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea Stringfellow, broken up by Joshua HolseySimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
51.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+21
50.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 21 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
52.4%
Eugene Brazley run for 6 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+21
52.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 21 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
52.4%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the Aub 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
53.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
53.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan Engram, broken up by Joshua HolseySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
52.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 7 yds to the Aub 3Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
55.1%
Gary Wunderlich 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4146% → 53%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
53.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 16 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+56
52.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 56 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
51.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Miss 2Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FG
16 plays · 50 yds · 5:1750% → 56%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
49.6%
Akeem Judd run for 6 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+5
49.9%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
49.9%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+8
49.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 8 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan Engram, broken up by Maurice Swain Jr.Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
50.3%
Chad Kelly run for 5 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+10
50.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 10 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
51.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
51.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 6 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
51.7%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
51.0%
Jason Pellerin run for 3 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
52.7%
Akeem Judd run for 8 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-7
52.7%
Chad Kelly sacked by Carl Lawson for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
51.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan Engram, broken up by Darrell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+49
55.7%
Gary Wunderlich 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:2046% → 53%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
53.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
53.7%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 9 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
52.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
51.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+37
52.2%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 37 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
50.4%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 1 yd to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+4
50.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-2
51.4%
Sean White run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
47.1%
Daniel Carlson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9FG
16 plays · 66 yds · 2:4550% → 57%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
49.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
52.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 4 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
51.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 15 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
53.2%
Eugene Brazley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
52.8%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+17
50.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 17 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
54.6%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+22
54.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 22 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
54.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Akeem JuddSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
54.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
51.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea Stringfellow, broken up by Tre' WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
57.2%
Gary Wunderlich 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
54.9%
Sean White pass incomplete to Kyle DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
56.2%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+50
57.3%
Kevin Phillips punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the OLEMISS 22 OLE MISS Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12DOWNS
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:4957% → 59%
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
56.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 11 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
57.2%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+14
57.1%
Chad Kelly run for 14 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
59.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy Adeboyejo, broken up by Joshua HolseySimilar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+16
58.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 16 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+23
60.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 23 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
60.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 9 yds to the Aub 3Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 1
OPP 3
-5
60.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Sean Rawlings) to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+5
60.7%
Chad Kelly run for 5 yds to the Aub 3Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
59.5%
Jason Pellerin run for no gain to the Aub 3Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
59.0%
Jason Pellerin run for no gain to the Aub 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+29
56.7%
Sean White pass complete to Darius Slayton for 29 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
55.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+1
55.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-5
56.2%
Sean White sacked by Fadol Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
59.0%
Kevin Phillips punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy Adeboyejo, broken up by Joshua HolseySimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+24
58.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 24 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
62.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
61.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 3 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+5
61.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to D. Stringfellow, PENALTY AU offside (Marlon Davidson) 5 yards to the AU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-10
61.7%
Chad Kelly rush for 9 yards to the AU25, PENALTY OM holding (Alex Givens) 10 yards to the AU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-8
59.3%
Chad Kelly sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 20
OWN 48
+10
56.6%
Will Gleeson punt for 38 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 10 yds to the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:4543% → 70%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
57.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 12 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
55.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
54.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Aub Sean White , return for no gain to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+16
59.0%
Sean White run for 16 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+33
53.1%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 33 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
50.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
30.4%
Sean White pass complete to Jalen Harris for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4136% → 66%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.9%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
36.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 8 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
37.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 28 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
40.7%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+21
42.8%
Chad Kelly run for 21 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
42.8%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
66.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 10 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:0542% → 55%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.0%
Sean White pass complete to Darius Slayton for 7 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
55.3%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (Alex Kozan) to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
57.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 16 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
54.2%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (Alex Kozan) to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+25
57.0%
Sean White pass complete to Stanton Truitt for 25 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
53.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+11
50.9%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 11 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
50.9%
Sean White run for 10 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
50.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-2
50.9%
Eli Stove run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
53.9%
Sean White pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
44.6%
Daniel Carlson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.3%
Chad Kelly run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
47.9%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
48.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
45.6%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:2055% → 72%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
45.1%
Stanton Truitt run for 1 yd to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+32
45.7%
Sean White pass complete to Jason Smith for 32 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
40.4%
Kamryn Pettway rush for 8 yards to the OM41, out-of-bounds (Zedrick Woods), PENALTY OM 12 men on the field 5 yards to the OM44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+6
39.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
40.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
40.6%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+6
41.2%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 6 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+47
27.8%
Daniel Carlson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
40.7%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the Aub 44 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
42.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 2 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
42.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+47
41.7%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Joshua Holsey return for 47 yds to the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 1:2378% → 93%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
21.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 7 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+15
21.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 15 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
7.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
9.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 18 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
10.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
10.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 6 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
11.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 6 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
11.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Akeem JuddSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
11.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
11.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
10.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23END OF GAME
12 plays · 36 yds · 3:3093% → 98%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
7.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 13 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
6.9%
Kamryn Pettway rush for loss of 1 yard to the OM47 (Fadol Brown), PENALTY OM offside (Fadol Brown) 5 yards to the OM41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 5
OPP 41
+2
6.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+4
4.8%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 4 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
5.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
4.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-1
3.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 27 Kerryon Johnson fumbled, forced by DeMarquis Gates, recovered by Aub Alex KozanSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+6
2.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:30
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 10 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+23.4
TD · Q3 3:11
Sean White pass complete to Jalen Harris for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-20.5
TD · Q4 5:58
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com