Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 51 at Missouri 45

MIZ
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:37 · Matt Bonadies punt for 38 yds , Chris Black returns for 7 yds to the Misso 36 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Matt Bonadies) to the Misso 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 236Home team on offense−31.8Pregame prior+0.3Garbage-time factor−14.0Score differential−4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:32: Richie James run for 7 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +19.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:27: Damarea Crockett run for 21 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +14.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:17: Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 4 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:31: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 5 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK) — MTSU win probability +25.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:44: Drew Lock pass complete to Ray Wingo for 17 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +24.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MIZ 4th & 5 at MTSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:57MTSU 4th & 6 at MIZ 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:52MIZ 4th & 2 at MTSU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:43MTSU 4th & 8 at MIZ 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:54MTSU 4th & 13 at MTSU 22, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:20MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.4%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:02MIZ 4th & 1 at MTSU 2, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−9.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:02MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:00MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 29, up 1
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.6%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:27MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:44MIZ 4th & 2 at midfield, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:09MTSU 4th & 1 at MIZ 37, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−4.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−4.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:29MTSU 4th & 8 at MIZ 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:14MIZ 4th & 4 at MTSU 4, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.1%−1.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−17.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:17MTSU 4th & 2 at MIZ 3, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%−5.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−26.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:08MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 34, down 6
    Close callPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:37MTSU 4th & 13 at MIZ 43, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:40MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:00MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:28MIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:54MIZ Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:47MIZ Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:20MTSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:59MTSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:02MIZ Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:32MTSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 13:27MIZ Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 11:17MTSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:31MTSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:44MIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
61.3%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
61.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+14
61.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 14 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
61.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-5
61.3%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 45Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+6
61.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 6 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
61.3%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
61.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+9
61.3%
Corey Fatony punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 16 , Richie James returns for 9 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:5539% → 41%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
61.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 6 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 22
-2
61.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+63
61.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 63 yds to the Misso 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
60.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the Misso 15Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
59.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 15 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
59.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
59.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
59.9%
Drew Lock sacked by Steven Rhodes for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
59.7%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 13
OWN 33
-6
59.6%
Drew Lock sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 26 Drew Lock fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Chris Melton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3441% → 42%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
58.6%
Richie James pass complete to Brent Stockstill for 4 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
58.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the Misso 22Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
58.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie James, broken up by Cale GarrettSimilar
Q1 7:57
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
57.8%
Canon Rooker 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:2458% → 61%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
58.1%
Damarea Crockett run for 8 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+8
58.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 8 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
58.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+22
58.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 22 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
58.9%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
58.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
58.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+24
58.5%
Drew Lock run for 24 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
61.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 2:4540% → 43%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
60.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 17 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
59.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+20
59.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 20 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
58.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 3 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
58.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to I'Tavius MathersSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+17
59.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 17 yds to the Misso 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
58.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the Misso 11Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
58.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
59.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
56.9%
Canon Rooker 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:4958% → 64%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.0%
Johnathon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
58.8%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
58.4%
Drew Lock run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+19
59.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 19 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
60.1%
Drew Lock run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 5
OPP 23
-6
60.1%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 19 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+11
60.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 11 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
60.1%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
63.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kendall Blanton for 15 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
61.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Ronnell PerkinsSimilar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
62.8%
BONADIES, Matt punt 37 yards to the MU36, Black, Chris return to the MU36 (BROWN, Chris), PENALTY MT IF 5 yards to the MT22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+9
62.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 40 yds , Chris Black returns for 9 yds to the Misso 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD
12 plays · 53 yds · 2:1363% → 70%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
63.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+10
63.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 10 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
63.5%
Lock, Drew pass complete to Johnson, J for 38 yards to the MT0, clock 14:21, PENALTY MU pass interference 15 yards to the MU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+6
63.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 19
OPP 47
+16
63.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 16 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+5
64.1%
Crockett, D rush for 2 yards to the MT29 (CUTRER, Jeremy;DALE, Alex), PENALTY MT substitution infraction 5 yards to the MT26, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
64.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+14
64.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 14 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
64.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+13
64.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
69.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2732% → 38%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
61.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 71 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 78 yds · 0:0063% → 64%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
62.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+9
63.0%
Drew Lock run for 9 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
63.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon Johnson, broken up by D.J. SandersSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
63.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+5
62.7%
Lock, Drew pass intercepted by SANDERS, DJ at the 50 yardline, SANDERS, DJ return to the 50 yardline, PENALTY MT substitution infraction (SANDERS, DJ) 5 yards to the MU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+2
63.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
63.2%
Josh Augusta run for 2 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
64.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete, broken up by Justin AkinsSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+40
63.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 40 yds J'Mon Moore fumbled, forced by D.J. Sanders, recovered by MTnSt Jeremy CutrerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:1338% → 51%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis AndrewsSimilar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
62.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
63.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 11 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
62.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
61.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 1 yd to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-5
62.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+12
62.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 12 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
60.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+56
48.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 56 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:5153% → 64%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
52.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 4 yds to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+10
52.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 10 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
54.1%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Raynard Felton) to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
55.1%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+22
56.4%
Ish Witter run for 22 yds to the MTnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
56.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
56.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
55.0%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
64.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
63.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Dennis Andrews, broken up by Aarion PentonSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
64.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 43 yds, downed at the Misso 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · -24 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
63.7%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+1
63.6%
Drew Lock run for 1 yd to the Misso 34Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
62.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 7
OWN 34
-5
61.9%
Fatony, Corey punt 57 yards to the MT9, downed, PENALTY MU IM (Strong, Nate) 5 yards to the MU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 12
OWN 29
-22
61.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 22 yards to the Misso 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
42.1%
Richie James run for 7 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
47.4%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
47.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+14
46.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 14 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
47.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Misso 30Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
47.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Kendall Blanton, broken up by Khalil BrooksSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
47.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Kendall BlantonSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
46.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Ray WingoSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
45.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
45.2%
Brent Stockstill run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Chandler Brewer) to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
46.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
46.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
47.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+12
48.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 43 yds , Chris Black returns for 12 yds to the Misso 32 MISSOURI Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Misso 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:0350% → 67%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
49.5%
Dimetrios Mason run for 20 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
51.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Damarea Crockett for 3 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+8
51.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
53.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 9 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+21
67.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 21 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:1038% → 60%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
60.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
62.5%
Brent Stockstill run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
60.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 16 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
59.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 23 yds to the Misso 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
57.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 14 yds to the Misso 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
57.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Cam HiltonSimilar
Q3 13:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
57.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
59.2%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 11 yards to the Misso 19 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (Marcell Frazier) to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
40.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 4 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:2347% → 49%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
46.5%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 12 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
48.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 6 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
49.7%
Drew Lock run for 1 yd to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+1
48.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 2
50
0
49.2%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23MISSED FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 6:0855% → 63%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
45.2%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+4
45.4%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+10
45.3%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to SMITH, Patrick (Cheadle, Logan), PENALTY MU holding (Cheadle, Logan) 10 yards to the MT20, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
44.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
42.8%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
41.2%
Terelle West run for 14 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
40.4%
Terelle West run for 1 yd to the Misso 45Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
40.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+5
40.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 5 yds to the Misso 37Similar
Q3 5:09
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+5
37.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 5 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
34.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 5 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
34.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-3
34.5%
Brent Stockstill run for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 30Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
37.4%
Canon Rooker 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 4:1543% → 52%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
42.5%
Ish Witter run for 11 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
44.7%
Ish Witter run for 8 yds to the Misso 49Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
46.3%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
46.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Kevin Pendleton) to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+11
43.9%
Ish Witter run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+6
46.9%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
49.3%
Ish Witter run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
49.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
49.4%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+3
46.9%
Josh Augusta run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
49.4%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
49.4%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
45.7%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
52.0%
Tucker McCann 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4354% → 85%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
46.3%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
44.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
45.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
43.1%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
43.6%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to ANDREWS, Dennis, PENALTY MU personal foul (Frazier, M) 15 yards to the MU45, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
41.2%
Brent Stockstill run for 11 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
40.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+23
39.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 23 yds to the Misso 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
39.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 2 yds to the Misso 5Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
39.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q4 10:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
14.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 5 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:4718% → 49%
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios MasonSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
17.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 10 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
18.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
50
0
20.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
50
+11
20.1%
Ish Witter run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
21.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Dimetrios Mason, broken up by Jeremy CutrerSimilar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
21.0%
Drew Lock run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 22 Drew Lock fumbled, forced by Alex Dale, recovered by Misso Ray Wingo for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
24.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 2
OPP 14
-3
24.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
49.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ray Wingo for 17 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27FG
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:2763% → 80%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
37.4%
MISSOURI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Greg Taylor) to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+49
33.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 49 yds to the MISSOURI 11 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
30.5%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the Misso 8Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-1
30.5%
Brent Stockstill run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 9Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+6
31.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 6 yds to the Misso 3Similar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+21
20.5%
Canon Rooker 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
29.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
29.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+1
28.1%
Drew Lock run for 1 yd to the Misso 34 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
27.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Richie James at the MTnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 29PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 3:2878% → 93%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
21.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
20.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
18.9%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
18.3%
Terelle West run for no gain to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
18.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Isiah Upton for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 8
50
+10
11.7%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to JAMES, Richie, PENALTY MU holding (Cheadle, Logan) 10 yards to the MU40, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
10.1%
Richie James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 42Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+4
10.6%
I'Tavius Mathers run for 4 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
5.0%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 8
OPP 38
-5
6.0%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, delay of game (Brent Stockstill) to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 13
OPP 43
+7
6.6%
Matt Bonadies punt for 38 yds , Chris Black returns for 7 yds to the Misso 36 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Matt Bonadies) to the Misso 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
10.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean Culkin, broken up by Khalil BrooksSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
10.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
10.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Sean CulkinSimilar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+5
9.7%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Hall, Emanuel, PENALTY MT offside (RHODES, Steven) 5 yards to the MU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
10.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Ray WingoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Misso 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:31
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Dennis Andrews for 5 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
-25
TD · Q4 8:44
Drew Lock pass complete to Ray Wingo for 17 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+24.7
TD · Q2 1:32
Richie James run for 7 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker KICK)
-19.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com