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MISS

Ole Miss 21 at LSU 38

LSU
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:04 · Josh Growden punt for 57 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 8 yds to the Miss 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+14.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:13: Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 40 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:11: Leonard Fournette run for 76 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:11: Akeem Judd run for 2 yds for a TD, (C. Kelly Run For Two-point Conversion) LSU Penalty Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Key, Arden) — MISS win probability +16.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:38: Leonard Fournette run for 78 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +14.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:26: Derrius Guice run for 6 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:04LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:48MISS 4th & 14 at LSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:16MISS 4th & 3 at LSU 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:11MISS 4th & 5 at LSU 5, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:46MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:39LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:10MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 38, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:51MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:45MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:27LSU 4th & 2 at MISS 27, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%−1.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:34MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 35, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:35LSU 4th & 15 at MISS 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−1.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:29MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:44MISS 4th & 13 at MISS 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:50LSU 4th & 18 at MISS 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:52MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:26LSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:13LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:11LSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:11MISS Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:38LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:26LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4465% → 65%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
65.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 5 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
65.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 2 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
65.2%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+8
65.1%
Josh Growden punt for 57 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 8 yds to the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 1:5735% → 37%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
65.2%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
65.1%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+50
65.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 50 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
64.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 1 yd to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+5
64.6%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Greg Gilmore) to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 4
OPP 15
0
64.4%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
63.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 15 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0664% → 62%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
63.5%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+6
63.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 6 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 21
-1
62.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
62.0%
Josh Growden punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:3738% → 40%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
62.0%
Chad Kelly run for 9 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
61.4%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
61.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 12 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
60.7%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+10
60.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
60.3%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Adeboyejo, Quincy, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Jackson, Donte) 5 yards to the LSU24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
60.2%
Eugene Brazley run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
60.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Eugene BrazleySimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 11
OPP 25
-3
60.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+46
60.4%
Gary Wunderlich 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1461% → 64%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+21
60.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 21 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
64.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 59 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:5637% → 38%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
63.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 17 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
62.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
62.5%
Eugene Brazley run for 7 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
61.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
62.4%
Will Gleeson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:5863% → 64%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
62.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+7
62.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 7 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
62.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
62.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 5 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+22
62.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 22 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
64.0%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+9
64.0%
D.J. Chark run for a loss of 14 yards to the LSU 35 D.J. Chark fumbled, forced by Victor Evans, recovered by Miss Marquis Haynes , return for 9 yds to the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
59.6%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Donte Jackson return for no gain to the LSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 97 yds · 2:3862% → 68%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+24
61.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 24 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+18
61.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 18 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
63.3%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+12
63.4%
Derrius Guice run for 12 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
63.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
68.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 40 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10FG
15 plays · 80 yds · 3:4733% → 36%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
67.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for no gain to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+15
67.3%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Stringfellow, Damore'ea, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Jackson, Donte) 15 yards to the OLEMISS30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
66.9%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
66.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
50
+4
65.0%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
65.0%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
65.0%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 2 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
64.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+17
65.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 17 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
64.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 18 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
64.4%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
64.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
65.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
64.1%
Gary Wunderlich 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 0:4467% → 74%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
66.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+76
73.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 76 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0726% → 25%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
73.6%
Markell Pack run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+6
74.0%
Chad Kelly run for 6 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
74.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Markell PackSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
75.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 53 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 12 yds to the LSU 39 OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5575% → 73%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
74.8%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
74.9%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
73.6%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+8
72.5%
Josh Growden punt for 44 yds , Carlos Davis returns for 8 yds to the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2526% → 24%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.9%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Stringfellow, Damore'ea, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Jackson, Donte) 11 yards to the OLEMISS36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
73.1%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-10
72.3%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+11
74.3%
Chad Kelly run for 11 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+2
73.3%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 4
OWN 43
-5
74.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
75.6%
Will Gleeson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
75.1%
Danny Etling sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 9 Danny Etling fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:4230% → 45%
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
69.7%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.6%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for no gain to the LSU 2Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.8%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds for a TD, (C. Kelly Run For Two-point Conversion) LSU Penalty Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Key, Arden) Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
63.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0441% → 41%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.7%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
57.8%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
57.6%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
59.2%
Will Gleeson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
1 play · 78 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
73.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 78 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3028% → 25%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
72.1%
Chad Kelly sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+5
73.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 5 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-1
73.7%
Chad Kelly sacked by Davon Godchaux for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+15
74.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 48 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 15 yds to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:1375% → 80%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
74.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 18 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
76.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-2
76.8%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+8
77.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 8 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
78.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
78.7%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+8
77.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 8 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
79.8%
Colby Delahoussaye 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4121% → 19%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
79.3%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Miss 26Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
79.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 4 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
80.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Akeem Judd for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
80.6%
Will Gleeson punt for 42 yds, downed at the LSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:5081% → 81%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
81.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 6 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+15
81.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 15 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
83.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+14
83.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 14 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Colin JeterSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
83.9%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-7
83.3%
Danny Etling sacked by DeMarquis Gates for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
81.2%
Josh Growden punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2518% → 17%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
82.4%
Eugene Brazley run for no gain to the Miss 6Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+6
82.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 6 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+6
84.2%
Chad Kelly run for 6 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
82.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
82.9%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Duke Riley return for 3 yds to the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2886% → 85%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
86.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
86.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Bry'Kiethon MoutonSimilar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+2
85.3%
Danny Etling pass intercepted Derrick Jones return for 2 yds to the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3616% → 14%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
84.0%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+1
82.8%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 2
OWN 24
-1
83.8%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 3
OWN 23
+2
85.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 49 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:4985% → 97%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
84.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+9
85.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 9 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
86.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 12 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
87.5%
Derrius Guice run for 8 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
87.4%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+7
87.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
88.0%
Derrius Guice run for 12 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
88.2%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+8
90.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 8 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+7
91.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 7 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.2%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:224% → 3%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
96.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 10 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
96.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-10
96.1%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Stringfellow, Damore'ea, PENALTY OLEMISS holding 10 yards to the OLEMISS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+3
96.7%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 13
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+25
97.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 46 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 25 yds to the Miss 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:4598% → 98%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
97.9%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+13
97.9%
Derrius Guice run for 13 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
98.1%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-7
98.3%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 36Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 12
OPP 36
-1
98.3%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 13
OPP 37
-5
98.1%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Miss 42Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
98.4%
Josh Growden punt for 39 yds, downed at the Miss 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 30END OF GAME
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:272% → 2%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
98.0%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 1 yd to the Miss 4Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+11
98.1%
Chad Kelly run for 11 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
97.8%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 3 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+10
97.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Taz Zettergren for 10 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
97.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 13 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
97.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to D'Vaughn Pennamon for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 1
50
0
97.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 1
50
+3
97.7%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 3 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:11
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds for a TD, (C. Kelly Run For Two-point Conversion) LSU Penalty Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Key, Arden)
-16.9
TD · Q3 13:38
Leonard Fournette run for 78 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+14.3
TD · Q2 6:11
Leonard Fournette run for 76 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com