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MSST

Mississippi State 38 at Kentucky 40

UK
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFUMBLEFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+1.2UK 37.9%Austin MacGinnis 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 6 · Q2 0:20
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:20 · Austin MacGinnis 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Home team on offense−6.4Garbage-time factor−3.0Score differential−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Pregame prior+0.7Blowout margin−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:55: Nick Fitzgerald run for 38 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +19.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:53: Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +20.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:51: Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted for a TD Marcus McWilson return for 45 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +22.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:09: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +46.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Austin MacGinnis 51 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +64.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:29UK 4th & 3 at MSST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:10UK 4th & 7 at MSST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:10MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:10UK 4th & 6 at UK 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:24MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:39UK 4th & 6 at MSST 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:36UK 4th & 8 at MSST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:39UK 4th & 10 at UK 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:49MSST 4th & 10 at UK 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:20UK 4th & 5 at MSST 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:37MSST 4th & 2 at UK 19, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%−2.0
    77% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−14.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:51MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:52UK 4th & 7 at MSST 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−18.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 8:45MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:00MSST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:52UK Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:26UK Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    60.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:55MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:53UK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:51UK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:09MSST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−4.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 3 yds Donald Gray fumbled,Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
51.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
51.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
51.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2MISSED FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 6:2952% → 53%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
51.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
51.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 9 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
51.8%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
51.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 16 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
51.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
51.9%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+8
52.4%
Stephen Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+4
52.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
52.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
52.8%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+6
52.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
52.8%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
52.8%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 9Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 6
OPP 9
-1
52.7%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 10Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+28
53.3%
Austin MacGinnis 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
52.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 8 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, recovered by MisSt Nick Fitzgerald , return for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 8Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 22
OWN 8
+5
52.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 5 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 17
OWN 13
+15
52.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 15 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
53.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds , Charles Walker returns for no gain to the Kent 32 Charles Walker fumbled, recovered by Kent Charles WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
53.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 4 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
53.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Stanley WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
53.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
52.8%
Grant McKinniss punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
52.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+7
53.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 7 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-2
52.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
53.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
53.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 7 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+12
54.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 12 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
55.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Cory ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
54.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
54.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
54.1%
Grant McKinniss punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5247% → 46%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
53.1%
Nick Gibson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 2
OWN 19
-2
52.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
53.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
54.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:1456% → 57%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
55.5%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+8
55.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Greg Hart for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
56.1%
Jojo Kemp run for 7 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+8
56.1%
Jojo Kemp run for 8 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
56.6%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
56.6%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-2
56.0%
Stanley Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
57.0%
Austin MacGinnis 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:4245% → 52%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
55.1%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+3
54.5%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
54.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-5
54.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+45
48.0%
Malik Dear run for 45 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
50.4%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 17Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
50.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
49.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff BadetSimilar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+4
49.0%
Grant McKinniss punt for 32 yds , Fred Ross returns for 4 yds to the Kent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
46.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 15
50
-8
47.4%
Keith Mixon run for 2 yds to the KENTUCKY 48 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 23
OWN 42
+2
48.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 2 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 21
OWN 44
+6
48.4%
Dontavian Lee run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 15
50
+5
48.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 5 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
48.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
49.0%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 12Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+27
48.8%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 27 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
50.3%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+2
50.3%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-7
49.5%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 35 Stephen Johnson fumbled, recovered by MisSt Marquiss Spencer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:0956% → 66%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
44.3%
Malik Dear run for 16 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
44.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 12 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
44.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Kent 3Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 1:4036% → 38%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+21
33.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 21 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
36.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles Walker, broken up by Johnathan CalvinSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+32
35.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 32 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
38.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
38.1%
Stephen Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
36.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
37.9%
Austin MacGinnis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
34.6%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0837% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.2%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+26
37.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 26 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
54.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 44 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:1552% → 61%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
48.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
46.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
46.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 1
50
+4
44.9%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
45.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 19 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
44.1%
[SHOT], Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Nick Gibson for no gain to the UK27 (Courtney Love), PENALTY MS holding 10 yards to the UK37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 20
OPP 37
0
46.0%
Malik Dear run for no gain to the Kent 37Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+18
46.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 18 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 2
OPP 19
0
45.3%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+36
39.2%
Westin Graves 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:0244% → 65%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
44.3%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+6
42.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+17
44.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 17 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
47.3%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
47.2%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+34
65.3%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 34 yds for a TD, (Stephen Johnson pass to Tavin Richardson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:2541% → 62%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
59.5%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
58.7%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+22
57.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 22 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
38.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 38 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0243% → 67%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
42.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 24 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
46.7%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
47.4%
Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
46.9%
[SHOT], PENALTY MS offside defense (Jeffery Simmons) 5 yards to the MS40, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
67.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 40 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21INT TD
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0237% → 19%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.0%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
62.5%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
62.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
60.9%
Malik Dear run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
58.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-5
59.0%
[SHOT], PENALTY MS false start (Martinas Rankin) 5 yards to the MS43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+45
81.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted for a TD Marcus McWilson return for 45 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
83.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
84.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
84.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 4:3084% → 77%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
84.1%
Stanley Williams run for 20 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
84.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+8
84.5%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
84.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+5
84.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
84.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 10 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 6Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 0
OPP 6
+81
76.9%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards Stephen Johnson fumbled, forced by Cory Thomas, recovered by MisSt Mark McLaurin , return for 81 yds, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:4170% → 85%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
70.2%
Stanley Williams run for 35 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
74.2%
Stanley Williams run for 23 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
75.2%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (Stephen Johnson) 5 yards to the MS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+2
74.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+6
74.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
73.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Jeffery SimmonsSimilar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
85.3%
Austin MacGinnis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25TD
17 plays · 77 yds · 5:3624% → 79%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
75.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Derrick BaitySimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
76.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
75.7%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
74.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
74.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
71.9%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+6
70.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
70.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+9
69.7%
Malik Dear run for 9 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
67.7%
[SHOT], Nick Fitzgerald rush for 1 yard to the UK26 (Derrick Baity), PENALTY MS holding (Justin Senior) 10 yards to the UK37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+7
72.5%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+4
70.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+15
70.9%
[SHOT], Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross, PENALTY UK pass interference (Chris Westry) 15 yards to the UK11, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
67.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 4 yds to the Kent 7Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
67.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete, broken up by Blake McClainSimilar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
21.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 1:0242% → 95%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
42.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 10 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
43.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles WalkerSimilar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+12
40.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 12 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
44.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian BakerSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
30.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 18 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down Timeout KENTUCKY, clock 00:03 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+51
94.8%
Austin MacGinnis 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Austin MacGinnis 51 yd FG GOOD
+64
TD · Q4 1:09
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-46.2
TD · Q4 14:51
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted for a TD Marcus McWilson return for 45 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+22.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com