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ARK

Arkansas 3 at Auburn 56

AUB
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:39 · Toby Baker punt for 28 yds, downed at the Aub 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+34.4Home team on offense+1.2Score differential+0.3Blowout margin+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:00: Kamryn Pettway 9 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +2.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:57: Stanton Truitt 20 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +2.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:28: Stanton Truitt 45 Yd pass from Sean White (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Adam McFain 54 Yd Field Goal — ARK win probability +4.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:06: Sean White 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:11ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:39ARK 4th & 6 at AUB 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:07ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:20AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:29ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 46, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:18AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 45, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:40ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 42, down 21
    Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:48AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 40, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:26ARK 4th & 8 at midfield, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:06AUB 4th & 1 at ARK 1, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:26ARK 4th & 10 at AUB 35, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:42ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 8, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:06AUB 4th & 3 at ARK 36, up 46
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:00ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 36, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:36ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 23, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:00AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:00AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:57AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:28AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:06AUB Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:42AUB Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:25AUB Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:27AUB Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 3:4411% → 12%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
88.8%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
88.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
50
-4
88.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-4
88.3%
Austin Allen sacked by Carl Lawson for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 18
OWN 42
-5
88.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 23
OWN 37
+5
88.1%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 18
OWN 42
0
88.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 18
OWN 42
+3
88.0%
Toby Baker punt for 39 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 3 yds to the Aub 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
1 play · 78 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
88.5%
Eli Stove 78 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 38 yds · 5:1312% → 12%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
88.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
88.2%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 5
OWN 42
+7
88.1%
T.J. Hammonds run for 7 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
88.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
88.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+5
87.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 5 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
87.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+10
87.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 10 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-5
87.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
87.4%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
87.6%
Toby Baker punt for 28 yds, downed at the Aub 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 2:1788% → 90%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
87.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 7 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
87.7%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+6
87.5%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
87.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 7 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+8
87.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 8 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
87.8%
Sean White run for 41 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
88.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
88.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+4
87.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
90.1%
Kamryn Pettway 9 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2611% → 11%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
89.4%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-7
89.2%
Austin Allen sacked by Andrew Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+11
89.3%
Austin Allen run for 11 yds to the Ark 27 Austin Allen fumbled, recovered by Aub Marlon DavidsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:0990% → 93%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
90.1%
Sean White pass complete to Chandler Cox for 7 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
92.7%
Stanton Truitt 20 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:217% → 7%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
92.8%
Austin Allen sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 9 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
92.7%
Toby Baker punt for 46 yds, downed at the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3594% → 94%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
93.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 11 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
93.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 11 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
93.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
94.0%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 2 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
93.9%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
93.7%
Kevin Phillips punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:427% → 6%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
93.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
93.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
93.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 9 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+1
93.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
93.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 4
50
+2
93.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-6
93.5%
T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
93.9%
Toby Baker punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5995% → 95%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
95.2%
Eli Stove run for 7 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+10
95.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 10 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
95.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
95.4%
Sean White run for 4 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+1
95.4%
Stanton Truitt run for 1 yd to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Kevin Phillips punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:296% → 6%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
94.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 17 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
93.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+8
94.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 8 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
94.3%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 3:40
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
94.5%
Toby Baker punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0096% → 99%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
96.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+27
96.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 27 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
96.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+45
98.8%
Stanton Truitt 45 Yd pass from Sean White (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
9 plays · 39 yds · 1:102% → 6%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
98.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 8 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
98.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
98.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 17 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
98.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 11 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+54
93.7%
Adam McFain 54 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
97.8%
Stanton Truitt run for 1 yd to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Sean White pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
97.7%
Kevin Phillips punt for 29 yds, downed at the Ark 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:163% → 2%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
96.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+17
97.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 17 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
97.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+3
97.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 8
50
0
97.7%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 8
50
0
97.7%
Toby Baker punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
17 plays · 86 yds · 5:0598% → 100%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
98.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+12
98.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 12 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
98.5%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+18
98.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 18 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
98.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
98.7%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+10
98.7%
Sean White pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 10 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
98.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
98.8%
Sean White pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+15
98.3%
Sean White run for 15 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
98.4%
John Franklin III run for 11 yds to the Ark 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
98.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the Ark 1Similar
Q3 6:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Sean White 1 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17INT
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 13 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
99.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 16 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
99.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+9
99.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 9 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.6%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Javaris Davis return for no gain to the Aub 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.7%
Eli Stove run for 9 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+8
99.8%
John Franklin III run for 8 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
99.8%
Stanton Truitt run for 14 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.8%
John Franklin III run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
99.8%
Stanton Truitt run for 5 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
99.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
Kamryn Pettway 23 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:180% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
99.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 8Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 9
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 9
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Toby Baker punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
99.9%
John Franklin III run for 9 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Stanton Truitt run for 3 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Stanton Truitt run for 3 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+12
99.9%
John Franklin III pass complete to Eli Stove for 12 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.9%
Stanton Truitt 31 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -21 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 26 ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (-13 Yards) to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+1
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 21
OWN 14
0
100.0%
Ty Storey pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 21
OWN 14
-10
100.0%
Ty Storey sacked by Devaroe Lawrence for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 31
OWN 4
0
100.0%
Toby Baker punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.9%
John Franklin III run for 1 yd to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
John Franklin III run for 5 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+1
99.9%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+1
99.9%
John Franklin III run for 1 yd to the Ark 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
100.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+3
100.0%
Ty Storey pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 3 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+8
100.0%
Toby Baker punt for 39 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 8 yds to the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
100.0%
Kam Martin run for 8 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+8
100.0%
Kam Martin run for 8 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
100.0%
Kam Martin run for 51 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
100.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 3 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
100.0%
Damon Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Ty Storey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Toby Baker punt for 26 yds, downed at the Ark 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
100.0%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
100.0%
Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
100.0%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Adam McFain 54 Yd Field Goal
-4.8
TD · Q1 0:57
Stanton Truitt 20 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)
+2.6
TD · Q1 3:00
Kamryn Pettway 9 Yd Run (Daniel Carlson Kick)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com