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TA&M

Texas A&M 14 at Alabama 33

ALA
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:38: Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +10.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  2. TD · Q3 12:54: Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +15.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:33: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +11.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q3 0:21: Keith Ford run for a loss of 8 yards Keith Ford fumbled, recovered by Alab Jonathan Allen , return for 30 yds, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ALA win probability +14.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:27: Jalen Hurts run for 37 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +5.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:57ALA 4th & 15 at TA&M 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:43ALA 4th & 11 at TA&M 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:18TA&M 4th & 13 at ALA 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:19ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 10, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:06TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:20ALA 4th & 8 at TA&M 12, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    85.4%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:45TA&M 4th & 2 at ALA 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:06TA&M 4th & 10 at ALA 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:39ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 19, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:44TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 12, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 12:59ALA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:38TA&M Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:54TA&M Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:33ALA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:27ALA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:5787% → 86%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+30
86.5%
Damien Harris run for 30 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
86.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 17 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
86.3%
Joshua Jacobs run for 8 yds to the TexAM 14Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
86.3%
Joshua Jacobs run for 4 yds to the TexAM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
86.3%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 11Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
86.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-4
86.0%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 15Similar
Q1 11:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
85.8%
Adam Griffith 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:3114% → 14%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 26Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
85.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 11 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.5%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-4
85.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-8
85.6%
Trevor Knight sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:5885% → 85%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
85.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 9 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+16
85.4%
Damien Harris run for 16 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
85.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 9 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+3
85.3%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
85.2%
Joshua Jacobs run for 5 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+11
85.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Joshua Jacobs for 11 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
85.0%
Joshua Jacobs run for 5 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+6
84.9%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the TexAM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
84.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 11Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
84.8%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the TexAM 11Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
84.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 4:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
85.1%
Adam Griffith 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3615% → 16%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
84.9%
Trayveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 12Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+11
84.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 11 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+8
84.7%
Trevor Knight run for 8 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
84.3%
Trayveon Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 26Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+13
84.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 13 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
83.6%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 3:1284% → 89%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
84.4%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Ridley, Calvin, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Willis, Priest) 16 yards to the ALABAMA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
84.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
84.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
84.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 35 Bo Scarbrough fumbled, recovered by AlabSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+6
84.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 6 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+14
84.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 14 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+30
84.8%
Damien Harris run for 30 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
85.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the TexAM 6Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+1
85.0%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
89.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:3013% → 12%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
87.4%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+12
87.5%
Keith Ford run for 12 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
87.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+21
87.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Keith Ford for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
50
0
86.8%
Keith Ford run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
50
+13
87.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 13 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
86.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 2 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
86.5%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 8
OPP 35
-5
86.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
87.7%
Shane Tripucka punt for 39 yds, downed at the Alab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:5289% → 88%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
88.9%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 6Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+4
88.8%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+2
88.6%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
89.0%
Joshua Jacobs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 12
OWN 10
0
89.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 12
OWN 10
-5
88.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Alab 5Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 17
OWN 5
+5
88.1%
Joshua Jacobs run for 5 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 12
OWN 10
+2
88.1%
JK Scott punt for 60 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 2 yds to the TexAM 12 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Block (Jeremy Tabuyo) to the TexAM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0812% → 12%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
87.9%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
88.0%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
88.2%
Trevor Knight run for no gain to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
88.3%
Shane Tripucka punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4389% → 89%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
89.4%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
89.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+21
88.9%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted Claude George return for 6 yds to the Alab 49 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Donovan Wilson ejected for targeting) to the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
87.3%
Trevor Knight pass intercepted Marlon Humphrey return for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:4289% → 89%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.0%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+46
89.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 46 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
89.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 35Similar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+21
89.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 21 yds to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
89.8%
Joshua Jacobs run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 17Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+5
89.8%
Joshua Jacobs run for 5 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
89.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
89.3%
Adam Griffith 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:3612% → 23%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
88.4%
Keith Ford run for 8 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
88.2%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
88.3%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 25 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
87.4%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
87.1%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Trayveon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+3
87.4%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+27
87.7%
Trevor Knight run for 27 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
77.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13INT
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:2583% → 84%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
83.4%
Joshua Jacobs run for no gain to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
82.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
50
+8
83.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 8 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+7
83.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 7 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
84.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
83.6%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted, touchback. Justin Evans return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5919% → 35%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.9%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
80.3%
Keith Ford run for 15 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
79.2%
Knight, Trevor pass incomplete to Reynolds, Josh, PENALTY TEXASAM ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TEXASAM39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 15
OWN 39
-5
80.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Tabuyo) to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+1
80.7%
Trevor Knight run for 1 yd to the TexAM 35Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+7
80.8%
Trevor Knight run for 7 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+33
80.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 33 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
65.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
17 plays · 77 yds · 5:5271% → 81%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
70.5%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Roney Elam and Kwame Etwi for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 18Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+11
69.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 11 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+5
69.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
70.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
69.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Miller ForristallSimilar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+15
68.3%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASAM roughing passer (Washington, Shaan) 15 yards to the ALABAMA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
72.4%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
72.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
71.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
72.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+8
73.0%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
72.8%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+19
72.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 19 yds to the TexAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
72.3%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 4Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 12
OWN 35
-15
81.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (ArDarius Stewart) to the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1322% → 21%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
78.0%
Trevor Knight run for 16 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
75.8%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
76.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete, broken up by Da'Ron PayneSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
77.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Keith FordSimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
79.3%
Shane Tripucka punt for 30 yds, downed at the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2081% → 80%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
80.6%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Jarrett Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 15Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+5
80.5%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Jacobs, Joshua, PENALTY TEXASAM offside (Hall, Daeshon) 5 yards to the ALABAMA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
80.7%
Joshua Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-4
79.9%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
80.0%
JK Scott punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19FUMBLE TD
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:1223% → 10%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
77.0%
Knight, Trevor pass incomplete to Reynolds, Josh, PENALTY ALABAMA offside (Fitzpatrick, Minkah) 5 yards to the TEXASAM39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 5
OWN 39
0
74.9%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+3
74.9%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+12
75.1%
Keith Ford run for 12 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
73.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-14
75.5%
Trevor Knight sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 14 yards to the TexAM 38Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 26
OWN 38
+30
90.2%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 8 yards Keith Ford fumbled, recovered by Alab Jonathan Allen , return for 30 yds, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2810% → 8%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
90.1%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-12
90.3%
Trevor Knight sacked by TEAM for a loss of 12 yards to the TexAM 9 Trevor Knight fumbled, recovered by TexAM , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 19
OWN 9
+3
91.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 16
OWN 12
+17
91.6%
Shane Tripucka punt for 52 yds , Eddie Jackson returns for 17 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 1:1193% → 98%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
92.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 8 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+2
92.6%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
98.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 37 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:483% → 3%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
96.8%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
50
0
96.7%
Keith Ford run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
50
+15
96.8%
Trevor Knight run for 15 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
96.5%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
96.8%
Keith Ford run for no gain to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 15
OPP 40
0
96.9%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Keith FordSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 15
OPP 40
0
97.2%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 19 yds · 4:2098% → 99%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.3%
Joshua Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
98.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
50
+9
98.4%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-2
98.5%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
98.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
98.7%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
98.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
99.0%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the TexAM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 18 yds · 2:392% → 2%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.1%
Trevor Knight run for no gain to the TexAM 41Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
98.1%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 5 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+5
98.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.1%
Trevor Knight pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
98.1%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+4
98.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Rashaan Evans) to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+10
97.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 10 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.9%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-Jones, broken up by Hootie JonesSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
97.9%
Kendall Bussey run for 5 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-13
98.0%
Trevor Knight sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 13 yards to the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:1799% → 99%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
99.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 17 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
99.4%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 35Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
99.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:54
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
-15.3
FUMBLE · Q3 0:21
Keith Ford run for a loss of 8 yards Keith Ford fumbled, recovered by Alab Jonathan Allen , return for 30 yds, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+14.7
TD · Q3 6:33
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com