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ALA

Alabama 49 at Tennessee 10

TENN
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · John Kelly run for 5 yds to the Tenn 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:14: Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted for a TD Ronnie Harrison return for 58 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +5.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:41: Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +8.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:22: Jalen Hurts run for 45 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +5.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:02: Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +7.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 4:03: Aaron Medley 37 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +5.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 11 of 12ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:40TENN 4th & 30 at TENN 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:27TENN 4th & 27 at TENN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:23TENN 4th & 19 at TENN 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:00ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:07TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:44ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:32TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:40TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:02TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:10ALA 4th & 19 at ALA 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:10TENN 4th & 14 at TENN 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:03TENN 4th & 6 at ALA 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−5.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:42TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 30, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:37TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:36TENN 4th & 4 at ALA 32, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:54ALA 4th & 9 at TENN 11, up 39
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 3:29ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:14ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:41TENN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:22ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:02ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:49ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:38ALA Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:0532% → 33%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
32.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 8 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+16
32.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 16 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
32.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
32.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jason CroomSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
32.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 4 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
33.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
33.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Alvin KamaraSimilar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 13
OPP 41
-17
33.2%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 17 yards to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 30
OWN 42
0
33.1%
Trevor Daniel punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:5067% → 65%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
33.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 6 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
33.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
33.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
33.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-5
33.8%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Rashaan Gaulden for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+32
34.7%
JK Scott punt for 62 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 32 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0535% → 35%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
34.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
35.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 14
OWN 44
-3
35.1%
Alvin Kamara run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 17
OWN 41
-10
35.0%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Jonathan Allen for a loss of 10 yards to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 27
OWN 31
+8
34.8%
Trevor Daniel punt for 60 yds , Eddie Jackson returns for 8 yds to the Alab 39 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 2:5265% → 69%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
35.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+6
35.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 6 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+6
36.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 6 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
35.8%
Damien Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
35.8%
Damien Harris run for 18 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
35.1%
Joshua Jacobs run for 13 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
35.2%
Joshua Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+36
31.3%
ArDarius Stewart 36 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:4933% → 32%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
32.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-2
33.5%
Alvin Kamara run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 36Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-10
32.3%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Reuben Foster for a loss of 10 yards to the Tenn 26Similar
Q1 1:23
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
31.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Eddie Jackson at the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2068% → 67%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Trevon DiggsSimilar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
32.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+28
33.1%
JK Scott punt for 58 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 28 yds to the TENNESSEE 45 ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Keith Holcombe) to the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7INT TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4134% → 29%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
34.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
33.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q1 0:14
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+58
28.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted for a TD Ronnie Harrison return for 58 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5827% → 27%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.1%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
27.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
27.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+12
26.8%
Trevor Daniel punt for 60 yds , Eddie Jackson returns for 12 yds to the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:1174% → 75%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
26.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 21 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
25.2%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
25.0%
Joshua Jacobs run for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
25.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
25.0%
JK Scott punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0825% → 25%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
25.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
25.1%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 26Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
24.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
24.5%
Trevor Daniel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Eddie Jackson at the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · -19 yds · 0:1476% → 75%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
24.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-5
24.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Cam Robinson) to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 15
OWN 25
-9
24.9%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 11 Jalen Hurts fumbled, recovered by Tenn Quay Picou , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:2426% → 35%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
26.4%
Alvin Kamara run for 4 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
34.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1369% → 78%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
30.7%
Damien Harris run for 13 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
29.8%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-2
29.6%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 8
50
+9
28.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 9 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
28.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+45
22.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 45 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3523% → 23%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
23.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
22.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 5 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.1%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
22.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+3
22.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 3 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+9
22.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 49 yds , Eddie Jackson returns for 9 yds to the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15INT
9 plays · 66 yds · 3:0778% → 82%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
22.4%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
22.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
22.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+37
22.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 37 yds to the Tenn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
20.8%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+12
20.7%
Damien Harris run for 12 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
20.4%
Joshua Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
18.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Joshua Jacobs for 8 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+7
18.5%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted Derek Barnett return for 7 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1521% → 21%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
21.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 6 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
22.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jauan JenningsSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
21.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Tyler ByrdSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
21.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Eddie Jackson at the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 64 yds · 0:5380% → 83%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
20.1%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+8
19.8%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
19.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+22
18.6%
Joshua Jacobs run for 22 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
17.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 12 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
16.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+37
16.6%
Adam Griffith 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 1:4580% → 80%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
20.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+16
20.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 16 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
19.5%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
18.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Gehrig DieterSimilar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-5
19.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (O.J. Howard) to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-7
20.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 13:10
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
19.8%
JK Scott punt for 49 yds, downed at the Tenn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:5521% → 19%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
21.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 1 yd to the Tenn 24Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+4
20.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 4 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+11
19.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 11 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
21.0%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-3
20.2%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
18.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jalen HurdSimilar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
18.5%
Trevor Daniel punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 0:5885% → 93%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
14.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 23 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
14.3%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
14.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+21
14.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 21 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:5210% → 12%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
9.5%
Tyler Byrd run for 6 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+14
9.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 14 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
9.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+10
9.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Smith for 10 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
9.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 1 yd to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+12
7.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 12 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
7.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-3
7.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jalen Hurd for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+4
6.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 4 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
12.4%
Aaron Medley 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0793% → 100%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
7.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 31 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
5.7%
Damien Harris run for 14 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
5.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
5.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 3 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+4
5.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-6
5.0%
Joshua Jacobs run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 24Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 16
OPP 24
+23
4.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 23 yds to the Tenn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:031% → 1%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Jason CroomSimilar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
0.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 1 yd to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+79
0.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 49 yds , Eddie Jackson returns for 79 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:541% → 0%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
0.4%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 31Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
0.4%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 3 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.4%
Trevor Daniel punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Eddie Jackson at the Alab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25TD
2 plays · 86 yds · 0:52100% → 100%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
0.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 1 yd to the Alab 15Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+85
0.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 85 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+36
0.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Josh Malone for 36 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
0.3%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
0.3%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to John KellySimilar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+3
0.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to John Kelly for 3 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
0.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Jason CroomSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27DOWNS
13 plays · 61 yds · 8:36100% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
0.3%
B.J. Emmons run for 3 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
0.3%
B.J. Emmons run for no gain to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+13
0.2%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Trevon Diggs for 13 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
0.2%
B.J. Emmons run for 7 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
0.2%
Cooper Bateman run for 4 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
0.2%
B.J. Emmons run for 4 yds to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+12
0.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 12 yds to the Tenn 25 Bo Scarbrough fumbled, recovered by Alab Bo Scarbrough for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
0.2%
B.J. Emmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+14
0.1%
B.J. Emmons run for 14 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
0.1%
B.J. Emmons run for 6 yds to the Tenn 6Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 4
OPP 6
-6
0.1%
Cooper Bateman run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 12Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+1
0.1%
B.J. Emmons run for 1 yd to the Tenn 11Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+4
0.1%
B.J. Emmons run for 4 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
0.1%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Tenn 8Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+5
0.1%
John Kelly run for 5 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:41
Alvin Kamara run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q3 9:02
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-7.5
TD · Q2 7:22
Jalen Hurts run for 45 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com