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USM

Southern Miss 10 at LSU 45

LSU
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:18 · Josh Growden punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Pregame prior+32.8Home team on offense+1.0Score differential−0.5Blowout margin−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:28: Parker Shaunfield 37 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +3.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:22: Derrius Guice run for 61 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:50: Derrius Guice run for 20 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:20: Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 80 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:58: Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 63 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 9:20USM 4th & 1 at LSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48LSU 4th & 18 at LSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:00USM 4th & 9 at USM 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:22USM 4th & 19 at USM 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:05LSU 4th & 5 at USM 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:28USM 4th & 6 at LSU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:18LSU 4th & 18 at LSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:42USM 4th & 12 at USM 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:53LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:04USM 4th & 7 at USM 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:11USM 4th & 1 at LSU 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 7 at USM 14, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:07USM 4th & 7 at USM 18, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:58USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:22LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:22LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:50LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:20LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:58LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:16LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 8:026% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
93.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 5 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.8%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-5
93.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
93.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito Smith, broken up by Arden KeySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+15
93.8%
LSU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Donte Jackson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
93.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 3 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
93.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 3 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
93.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+5
93.8%
MULLENS, Nick punt 39 yards to the LS5, downed, PENALTY LS substitution infraction 5 yards to the LS39, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
93.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+6
93.8%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
93.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+3
92.4%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
92.2%
George Payne run for 5 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+17
91.9%
Ito Smith run for 17 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
91.9%
Nick Mullens run for 4 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.4%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for no gain to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-8
91.2%
Danny Etling sacked by Elijah Parker for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 18
OWN 24
0
91.0%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. Chark, broken up by Cornell ArmstrongSimilar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 18
OWN 24
+5
91.0%
Josh Growden punt for 56 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.7%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
89.7%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
89.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 26Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+13
89.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 47 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 13 yds to the LSU 39 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:0590% → 91%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
89.7%
Derrius Guice run for 11 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
89.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeSean Smith for 25 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
91.2%
D.J. Chark run for 19 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
90.1%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
90.2%
Nick Mullens sacked by Tashawn Bower for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 16 Nick Mullens fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
90.6%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:3891% → 90%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+31
90.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to DeSean Smith for 31 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
90.8%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+1
90.6%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
90.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrius Guice, broken up by Elijah ParkerSimilar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
90.2%
Colby Delahoussaye 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:299% → 13%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
90.8%
Ito Smith run for 17 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
90.6%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
90.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 3 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+27
90.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 27 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
89.8%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
89.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+3
90.0%
Nick Mullens run for 3 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
89.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
89.8%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+5
90.2%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
86.6%
Parker Shaunfield 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
16 plays · 28 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
87.4%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
87.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrius GuiceSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+9
87.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 9 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
87.5%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
87.9%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
87.7%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
87.7%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
88.3%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
88.2%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
88.3%
LSU Penalty, false start (Travin Dural) to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 15
OWN 44
0
87.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+2
87.7%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 13
OWN 46
-5
87.4%
LSU Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 18
OWN 41
0
87.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
87.0%
Josh Growden punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9END OF HALF
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:1217% → 18%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
82.7%
George Payne run for 5 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+2
82.3%
George Payne run for 2 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+13
82.6%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 13 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
81.7%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-2
81.6%
George Payne run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3283% → 89%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
82.5%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+7
82.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 7 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+61
88.7%
Derrius Guice run for 61 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0012% → 13%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
87.8%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+8
87.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to George Payne for 8 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
87.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 12 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
87.3%
George Payne run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 22 George Payne fumbled, forced by Jamal Adams, recovered by LSU Jamal Adams , return for 4 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 2:2689% → 94%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
89.4%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
93.7%
Derrius Guice run for 20 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
92.8%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
93.0%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+10
93.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 10 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
92.6%
Nick Mullens sacked by Lewis Neal for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 16
OWN 22
+4
93.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 4 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 12
OWN 26
0
93.1%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:42
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
93.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds, downed at the LSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
93.8%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-4
93.8%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
93.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
93.1%
Josh Growden punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
92.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
92.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
93.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Picasso Nelson Jr., broken up by Dwayne ThomasSimilar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
93.1%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 57 yds, downed at the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
97.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 80 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for 8 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+18
98.0%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Korey Robertson for 18 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.0%
D.J. Thompson pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
98.0%
George Payne run for 9 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
97.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
98.0%
George Payne run for no gain to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
1 play · 63 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 63 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
99.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 12Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+3
99.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 3 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+4
99.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 19
-5
99.9%
SARRAZIN, Tyler punt 45 yards to the LS36, T. White return to the USM34 (TRULY, D.;ABSTON, Justin), PENALTY USM illegal formation 5 yards to the USM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 53 yds, downed at the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.8%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+9
99.8%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Danny Etling pass intercepted Tarvarius Moore return for no gain to the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to D.J. ThompsonSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
99.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+11
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 11 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+2
99.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+5
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 7
OWN 18
-8
99.9%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 61 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+21
99.9%
Derrius Guice run for 21 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
99.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 13 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
99.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 14 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
99.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 11 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 23 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
Tez Parks run for 6 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-2
99.9%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+12
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Chase Whitehead for 12 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
99.9%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Allenzae Staggers for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Tez Parks run for no gain to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 13
OWN 37
-5
100.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Ty Pollard) to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+15
100.0%
MULLENS, Nick pass incomplete to FOSTER, Devonta, PENALTY LS pass interference (Kristian Fulton) 15 yards to the USM47, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
99.9%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the LSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:22
Derrius Guice run for 61 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q3 4:20
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 80 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q3 10:50
Derrius Guice run for 20 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com