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MISS

Ole Miss 30 at Arkansas 34

ARK
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:40 · Chad Kelly run for 9 yds to the Miss 29 Chad Kelly fumbled, recovered by Ark
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 189Pregame prior−0.7Home team on offense+13.9Garbage-time factor+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.1Score differential+0.9Blowout margin+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:24: Chad Kelly run for 8 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +14.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:29: Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK) — ARK win probability +17.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:49: Gary Wunderlich 33 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +9.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:00: Chad Kelly run for 17 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +29.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:20: Jared Cornelius run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK) — ARK win probability +48.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 7MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:28ARK 4th & 23 at ARK 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:07MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:03MISS 4th & 3 at ARK 40, down 8
    Close callPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13ARK 4th & 1 at MISS 24, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%−1.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−5.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:21ARK 4th & 8 at MISS 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:42MISS 4th & 7 at ARK 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−1.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:12ARK 4th & 2 at MISS 48, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:46MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:49MISS 4th & 2 at ARK 16, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%−1.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−15.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:29ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:33MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−2.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:26ARK 4th & 8 at MISS 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:59MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−3.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:10ARK 4th & 4 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.5%−4.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:40MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:33ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:26MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:08ARK Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:50MISS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:24MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:29ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:00MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−1.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:20ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:2227% → 27%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
26.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-13
26.9%
Austin Allen sacked by DeMarquis Gates for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 12Similar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
27.2%
Toby Baker punt for 53 yds , Carlos Davis returns for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1873% → 72%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
27.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
27.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
27.6%
Will Gleeson punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 2:2728% → 31%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
27.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 11 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
27.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 7 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+8
28.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 8 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
28.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+51
30.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 51 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:4970% → 70%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
30.0%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
30.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 7 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+7
30.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 7 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
30.6%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+15
30.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 15 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
30.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 10 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
30.9%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the Ark 18Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+5
31.3%
Chad Kelly run for 5 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
30.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 13 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:0731% → 35%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+53
31.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 53 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
32.0%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 13Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+13
35.0%
Drew Morgan 13 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0266% → 64%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
34.3%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the Miss 36Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+17
34.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 17 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
34.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 6 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
34.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 1 yd to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
34.7%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
35.6%
Chad Kelly punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:4236% → 42%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
35.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 16 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
36.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
37.8%
Keon Hatcher run for 2 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
37.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
50
+4
39.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+13
39.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 13 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
40.6%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
40.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
40.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+43
41.7%
Adam McFain 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:0559% → 65%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
41.3%
Chad Kelly run for 23 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
40.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 8 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+13
40.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 13 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
39.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+15
40.3%
Kelly, Chad pass incomplete to Pack, Markell, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Toliver, Henre') 15 yards to the ARKANSAS8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
40.2%
Eugene Brazley run for 3 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
40.3%
Chad Kelly run for 3 yds to the Ark 2Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
35.0%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 6:2437% → 49%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
37.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
37.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
37.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
39.1%
Austin Allen run for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+12
39.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 12 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Devwah Whaley, broken up by DeMarquis GatesSimilar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
40.0%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete to Cornelius, Jared, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Moore, Kailo) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
50
+6
43.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
43.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
44.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 18 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
44.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
45.3%
Austin Allen run for 2 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
44.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
49.0%
Adam McFain 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:2852% → 51%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+23
48.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 23 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
47.3%
Chad Kelly run for 7 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+13
46.1%
Akeem Judd run for 13 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
45.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
46.3%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
46.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
48.6%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1653% → 52%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
52.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
53.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+1
52.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
51.6%
Toby Baker punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 0:3648% → 68%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
52.0%
Akeem Judd run for 6 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+19
52.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 19 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
51.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 35 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
46.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 22 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
32.1%
Chad Kelly run for 8 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:1041% → 40%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
41.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
42.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 8 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
43.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 5 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-15
44.0%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete to Reed, Dominique, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference 15 yards to the ARKANSAS34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+6
40.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 14
OWN 40
0
40.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:4362% → 64%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
38.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
39.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 16 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
36.5%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+14
35.7%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted Henre' Toliver return for no gain to the Ark 44 ARKANSAS Penalty, Targeting (De'Andre Coley) to the Ark 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:4742% → 43%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
42.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+8
42.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 8 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
43.2%
Jared Cornelius run for 11 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
43.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
46.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
47.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 19 yds to the ARKANSAS 33 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Breeland Speaks) to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-22
48.6%
Austin Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 20 Austin Allen fumbled, recovered by Ark TEAM run for a loss of 22 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 34
OPP 42
0
45.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 34
OPP 42
0
44.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Rawleigh Williams IIISimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 34
OPP 42
0
42.7%
Toby Baker punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1458% → 55%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
41.7%
Eugene Brazley run for 2 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-1
42.4%
Chad Kelly sacked by Karl Roesler and McTelvin Agim for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 6Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
43.8%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 9
OWN 6
+4
45.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 36 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 4 yds to the Miss 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
11 plays · 38 yds · 5:1149% → 70%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
49.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
50.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+6
49.8%
Keon Hatcher run for 6 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
51.8%
Austin Allen sacked by Breeland Speaks for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 32Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 16
OPP 32
+20
49.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 20 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
52.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+7
52.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 7 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Austin CantrellSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
70.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 3:3636% → 46%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.7%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
62.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 16 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
61.2%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
60.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+12
62.5%
Chad Kelly run for 12 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
60.2%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
60.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+7
62.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 7 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
60.0%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the Ark 22 Chad Kelly fumbled, recovered by MissSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
60.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Ark 17Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+1
60.5%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the Ark 16Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
63.3%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
54.2%
Gary Wunderlich 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1663% → 63%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
62.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 5 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
63.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 34Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
62.6%
Toby Baker punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5039% → 36%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
60.6%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+2
61.3%
Chad Kelly run for 2 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 8
OWN 14
0
63.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
64.5%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:0569% → 69%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
68.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 12 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
70.2%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
70.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+17
68.5%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Marquis Haynes return for 17 yds to the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:0044% → 77%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
55.6%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+18
56.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 18 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
52.3%
Chad Kelly run for 11 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
52.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
23.4%
Chad Kelly run for 17 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:1934% → 34%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
34.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 24 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
39.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
40.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
38.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Dominique ReedSimilar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
34.1%
Toby Baker punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2471% → 69%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.0%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy Adeboyejo, broken up by Ryan PulleySimilar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
28.6%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
30.3%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Van Jefferson, broken up by Santos RamirezSimilar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+1
31.2%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 37 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for 1 yd to the Ark 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:1038% → 90%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
37.7%
Austin Allen sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+14
32.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 4
50
0
37.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 4
50
+10
33.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 10 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
39.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
39.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for no gain to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+11
37.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 11 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+22
42.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 22 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
38.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
89.5%
Jared Cornelius run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26FUMBLE
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:3123% → 13%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
77.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
78.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Markell Pack for 7 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
-8
75.5%
Chad Kelly sacked by Jeremiah Ledbetter for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 25Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 11
OWN 25
-5
86.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Alex Givens) to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 16
OWN 20
+9
86.6%
Chad Kelly run for 9 yds to the Miss 29 Chad Kelly fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27END OF HALF
4 plays · -24 yds · 1:1595% → 96%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-8
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 37Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 18
OPP 37
-7
94.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 44Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 25
OPP 44
-9
95.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:20
Jared Cornelius run for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)
+48.1
TD · Q4 9:00
Chad Kelly run for 17 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
-29.1
TD · Q3 3:29
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam McFain KICK)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com