Try the model
UGA

Georgia 28 at South Carolina 14

SC
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2016 · Williams-Brice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:25 · Sean Kelly punt for 57 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense−12.9Pregame prior−13.2Score differential−6.9Garbage-time factor−4.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:27: Nick Chubb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +5.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:49: Deebo Samuel run for 9 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +16.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:43: Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 6 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +11.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:40: Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +22.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:33: Elliott Fry on-side kick recovered by GEORGIA at the SCaro 43 , Terry Godwin return for 43 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +23.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 10UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:28SC 4th & 5 at SC 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:59UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:25SC 4th & 2 at SC 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:49UGA 4th & 20 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:10SC 4th & 13 at SC 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:52UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:22UGA 4th & 10 at SC 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:25SC 4th & 4 at SC 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:27SC 4th & 1 at UGA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−1.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:51UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:03SC 4th & 8 at SC 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:21SC 4th & 2 at UGA 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:01UGA 4th & 7 at SC 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:49SC 4th & 6 at SC 30, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:05SC 4th & 1 at UGA 11, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.7
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−2.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:30SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:55UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:27UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:49SC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:43UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:40SC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−2.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:33UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:5175% → 75%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
24.7%
Nick Chubb run for 18 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
24.8%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
24.9%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 9 yds to the SCaro 46Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
25.1%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
25.3%
Sony Michel run for 18 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
25.5%
Sony Michel run for 9 yds to the SCaro 15Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+15
24.9%
Nick Chubb run for 15 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:5725% → 25%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-7
25.3%
Perry Orth pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 3 yds to the SCaro 26 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 16Similar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 17
OWN 16
-10
25.4%
Dowdle, Rico rush for 11 yards to the SOCAROLINA27, PENALTY SOCAROLINA holding 10 yards to the SOCAROLINA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 25
OWN 8
+20
25.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 20 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
25.5%
Rico Dowdle run for no gain to the SCaro 28Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
25.6%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+12
25.4%
Sean Kelly punt for 53 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 12 yds to the Geo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2074% → 74%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
25.6%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Geo 32Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+1
25.5%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the Geo 33Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
25.8%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
26.0%
Marshall Long punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2726% → 26%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
25.9%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
25.9%
Perry Orth pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 1 yd to the SCaro 23Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+7
25.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Terry Googer for 7 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q1 6:25
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+2
25.9%
Sean Kelly punt for 55 yds , Isaiah McKenzie returns for 2 yds to the Geo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 5:1174% → 73%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
26.0%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 22Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+8
26.0%
Nick Chubb run for 8 yds to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
26.0%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
25.8%
Sony Michel run for 9 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
25.6%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the SCaro 49Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+9
25.5%
Nick Chubb run for 9 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
25.5%
Brian Herrien run for 4 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
25.5%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-10
25.6%
GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Chigbu) to the SCaro 46Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 16
OPP 46
-4
26.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Sony Michel for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 20
50
0
26.8%
Marshall Long punt for 41 yds, downed at the SCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3927% → 26%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
26.7%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the SCaro 11Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 11
-2
26.8%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 9Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
26.3%
Perry Orth pass intercepted Malkom Parrish return for no gain to the SCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7TD
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:1875% → 80%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
25.4%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+6
25.4%
Sony Michel run for 6 yds to the SCaro 19Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+5
26.1%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the SCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
26.0%
Nick Chubb run for 2 yds to the SCaro 12Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+11
26.0%
Sony Michel run for 11 yds to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.1%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.2%
Nick Chubb run for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.5%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0221% → 20%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
21.4%
Perry Orth pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 6 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+5
21.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 5 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
21.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 6 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
21.8%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-9
21.6%
Perry Orth sacked by Tyler Clark for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 26Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 13
OWN 26
+61
20.4%
Sean Kelly punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Isaiah McKenzie at the SOCAROLINA 26 GEORGIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (D'Andre Walker) to the Geo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:0779% → 80%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
20.6%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 15Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+19
20.4%
Brian Herrien run for 19 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
20.1%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Reggie DavisSimilar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
20.1%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 38Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
19.4%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
19.9%
Marshall Long punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3921% → 21%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
20.5%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
20.6%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the SCaro 36 A.J. Turner fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2881% → 81%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
18.6%
Jacob Eason sacked by Darius English for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 40Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+9
18.5%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Nick Chubb for 9 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 5
OPP 31
-5
19.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 36Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
18.9%
Marshall Long punt for 33 yds, downed at the SCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:2619% → 20%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
18.5%
Rico Dowdle run for 8 yds to the SCaro 11Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+7
18.6%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 7 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
18.4%
Perry Orth run for 3 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+33
18.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 33 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
19.7%
Rico Dowdle run for 8 yds to the Geo 38 Rico Dowdle fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13END OF HALF
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:1783% → 85%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
16.7%
Sony Michel run for 7 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+14
16.3%
Sony Michel run for 14 yds to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
16.0%
Jacob Eason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
16.1%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Isaiah McKenzieSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+15
16.2%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Bryson Allen-Williams) to the SCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
15.1%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Terry GodwinSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
15.3%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 31Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 15
OPP 31
0
15.3%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Jeb BlazevichSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+2
14.7%
Brian Herrien run for 12 yds to the SCaro 19 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1819% → 19%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
18.6%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 36Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
18.1%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+7
17.6%
Perry Orth pass complete to A.J. Turner for 7 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
18.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15INT
8 plays · 66 yds · 4:2083% → 87%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.7%
Isaiah McKenzie run for no gain to the Geo 20Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
16.5%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 23Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+9
16.7%
Nick Chubb run for 9 yds to the Geo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
15.8%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+16
15.3%
Sony Michel run for 16 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+40
14.1%
Nick Chubb run for 40 yds to the SCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
12.8%
Isaiah McKenzie run for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 14Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
12.8%
Jacob Eason pass intercepted Antoine Wilder return for 1 yd to the SCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:5915% → 33%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
15.4%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the SCaro 13Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+8
14.7%
Perry Orth pass complete to Jacob August for 8 yds to the SCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+39
14.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 39 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
16.9%
A.J. Turner run for 8 yds to the Geo 32Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
17.5%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+3
16.9%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the Geo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
17.2%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
16.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 7 yds to the Geo 22Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
16.1%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the Geo 20Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+9
15.5%
Rico Dowdle run for 9 yds to the Geo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
16.1%
Rico Dowdle run for 2 yds to the Geo 9Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
32.7%
Deebo Samuel run for 9 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:4876% → 75%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.8%
Sony Michel run for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
23.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 9 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
22.1%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Geo 33Similar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+8
24.2%
Brian Herrien run for 8 yds to the Geo 41Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-3
21.9%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 38Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
23.3%
Jacob Eason pass incomplete to Nick ChubbSimilar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
25.1%
Marshall Long punt for 59 yds, downed at the SCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3627% → 22%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
26.6%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the SCaro 7Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 7
-4
24.6%
Perry Orth sacked by Davin Bellamy for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 3Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+6
23.3%
Perry Orth pass complete to A.J. Turner for 6 yds to the SCaro 9Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 4
OWN 9
-4
22.6%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-4 Yards) to the SCaro 5Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 8
OWN 5
0
22.1%
Sean Kelly punt for 34 yds, downed at the SCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 2:1381% → 93%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
18.7%
Brian Herrien run for 14 yds to the SCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
18.0%
Brian Herrien run for 18 yds to the SCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
17.9%
Sony Michel run for no gain to the SCaro 7Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
17.8%
Sony Michel run for 1 yd to the SCaro 6Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
6.7%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Isaiah McKenzie for 6 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:0711% → 9%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
11.1%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 13 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
12.1%
Perry Orth pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 23 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
10.8%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the Geo 37Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
10.6%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to A.J. TurnerSimilar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+6
10.3%
Perry Orth pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 6 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q4 9:21
4TH & 2
OPP 31
-2
9.3%
Perry Orth pass complete to A.J. Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 4:0394% → 96%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
6.0%
Brian Herrien run for 6 yds to the Geo 39Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+1
5.5%
Brian Herrien run for 1 yd to the Geo 40Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+14
5.5%
Sony Michel run for 14 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
4.8%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 48Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
4.6%
Brian Herrien run for no gain to the SCaro 48Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+5
4.5%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
4.4%
Marshall Long punt for 17 yds, fair catch by K.C. Crosby at the SCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22TD
17 plays · 74 yds · 2:595% → 26%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-9
5.0%
Perry Orth run for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 17 Perry Orth fumbled, recovered by SCaroSimilar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 19
OWN 17
-5
4.8%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 12Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 24
OWN 12
0
3.8%
Perry Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 24
OWN 12
+18
3.6%
Perry Orth pass complete to Kiel Pollard for 18 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+35
3.6%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 35 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
4.7%
Perry Orth pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 6 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-5
4.7%
Perry Orth sacked by Lorenzo Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 34Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+14
3.5%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 14 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
3.9%
Perry Orth pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
3.8%
Perry Orth pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 4 yds to the Geo 16Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
3.6%
Perry Orth pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 5 yds to the Geo 11Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
3.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 2 yds to the Geo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
3.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Dominick Sanders) to the Geo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
3.7%
GEORGIA Penalty, Roughing Passer (1 Yards) to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.9%
Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:442% → 1%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
2.3%
Perry Orth sacked by Trenton Thompson for a loss of 11 yards to the SCaro 14Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+6
2.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to A.J. Turner for 6 yds to the SCaro 20Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
1.2%
Perry Orth pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 5 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-4
1.1%
Perry Orth sacked by Chuks Amaechi for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
1.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:33
Elliott Fry on-side kick recovered by GEORGIA at the SCaro 43 , Terry Godwin return for 43 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
-23.6
TD · Q4 1:40
Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q3 3:49
Deebo Samuel run for 9 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
+16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com