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ALA

Alabama 49 at Arkansas 30

ARK
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:36 · Toby Baker punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Eddie Jackson at the Alab 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Home team on offense−8.0Pregame prior−25.0Score differential−4.0Garbage-time factor−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:25: Tim Williams 23 Yd Fumble Return (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +4.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:25: Bo Scarbrough 21 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +4.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:29: Keon Hatcher 16 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick) — ARK win probability +10.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:10: Calvin Ridley 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick) — ALA win probability +5.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:57: Keon Hatcher 10 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick) — ARK win probability +8.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 8:13ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:17ALA 4th & 13 at ALA 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:36ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:56ARK 4th & 7 at ALA 7, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:13ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:43ARK 4th & 10 at ALA 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:10ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:56ARK 4th & 10 at ALA 23, down 18
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:03ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 19, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:11ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 47, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:25ALA 4th & 1 at ARK 44, up 19
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 7:27ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:25ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:54ARK Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:25ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:53ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:25ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:29ARK Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:10ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:57ARK Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:18ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:18ARK Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3883% → 81%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
17.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 9 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
17.5%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
17.8%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+1
17.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 1 yd to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
18.2%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+56
18.5%
Joshua Jacobs run for 56 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
18.5%
Joshua Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Ark 1Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
18.8%
Joshua Jacobs run for no gain to the Ark 1 Joshua Jacobs fumbled, forced by Dre Greenlaw, recovered by Ark De'Andre ColeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4719% → 20%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
19.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 7 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+2
19.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+17
19.4%
Austin Allen run for 6 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Holding (11 Yards) to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
19.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-5
19.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 14
OWN 23
0
20.2%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 14
OWN 23
0
20.1%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+3
20.3%
Toby Baker punt for 53 yds , Eddie Jackson returns for 3 yds to the Alab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:3379% → 82%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
20.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 11 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+57
20.7%
Damien Harris run for 57 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
18.5%
Jalen Hurts 5 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:2981% → 83%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
18.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
18.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+13
18.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 13 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
18.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 4 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
16.8%
Jalen Hurts 6 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+15
17.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1518% → 22%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
17.7%
Austin Allen sacked by Shaun Dion Hamilton for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
17.7%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+20
17.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 20 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
18.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
17.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cody HollisterSimilar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+16
17.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 16 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
18.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Rawleigh Williams IIISimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+23
17.6%
Jared Cornelius run for 8 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ryan Anderson) to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
21.5%
Jeremy Sprinkle 24 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:2180% → 79%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
20.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 16 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
19.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
20.2%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+13
20.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 13 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
19.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
20.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-1
20.6%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+3
21.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
21.3%
JK Scott punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3521% → 17%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
20.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-23
16.6%
Tim Williams 23 Yd Fumble Return (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1016% → 17%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
16.2%
Austin Allen sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 18Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 20
OWN 18
0
16.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 20
OWN 18
+18
15.9%
Austin Allen run for 18 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
16.5%
Toby Baker punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Eddie Jackson at the Alab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:3184% → 89%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
16.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 21 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
15.5%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-4
15.0%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+56
11.0%
Damien Harris 56 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:3511% → 13%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
11.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 10 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
11.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 2 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+29
11.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 29 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
12.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
12.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Kody Walker for 8 yds Kody Walker fumbled, forced by Shaun Dion Hamilton, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
12.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
12.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 9 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+4
12.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-10
12.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brian Wallace) to the Alab 18Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 0
OPP 18
+11
12.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 11 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
11.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
11.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q2 2:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
13.8%
Adam McFain 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 9
OWN 35
-15
12.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:1389% → 96%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+32
10.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Miller Forristall for 32 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
9.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+9
8.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
3.9%
Bo Scarbrough 21 Yd Run (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 0:403% → 14%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
2.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+57
2.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 57 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
3.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cody HollisterSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
14.0%
Keon Hatcher 16 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:1591% → 92%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
8.9%
Damien Harris run for 32 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
8.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 6 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
-2
7.6%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:2711% → 11%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
11.2%
Dominique Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
11.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 3 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
10.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Jake Raulerson) to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
10.6%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+9
10.5%
Toby Baker punt for 57 yds , Eddie Jackson returns for 9 yds to the Alab 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+67
9.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 67 yds ArDarius Stewart fumbled, forced by De'Jon Harris, recovered by Ark Ryan PulleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1310% → 10%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
10.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Austin CantrellSimilar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
10.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cody HollisterSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
10.1%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Minkah Fitzpatrick return for no gain to the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:0592% → 98%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
7.9%
Damien Harris run for 12 yds to the Ark 6 Damien Harris fumbled, forced by De'Andre Coley, recovered by Alab Calvin Ridley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
7.8%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Ark 5Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
7.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Ark 4Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.1%
Calvin Ridley 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18INT
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:162% → 1%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
1.8%
Kody Walker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
1.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 8 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
1.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Marlon Humphrey) to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
1.5%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
1.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
1.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
1.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Kendrick JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
1.3%
Austin Allen run for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+14
0.9%
Austin Allen pass intercepted Minkah Fitzpatrick return for 14 yds to the Alab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2699% → 99%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.5%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
1.5%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted Dwayne Eugene return for 8 yds to the Alab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:541% → 9%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
0.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
0.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+23
0.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 23 yds to the Alab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
0.8%
Drew Morgan run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 12Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
0.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Kody Walker for 2 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
9.4%
Keon Hatcher 10 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0895% → 95%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.1%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
4.8%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
4.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
4.9%
JK Scott punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT TD
16 plays · 62 yds · 6:367% → 0%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
7.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
6.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+15
6.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Averett) to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
7.0%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
6.8%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+11
6.7%
Kody Walker run for 11 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
6.7%
Austin Allen sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+22
5.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for 22 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
5.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+7
5.4%
Austin Allen run for 7 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
5.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Kody WalkerSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
4.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
4.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+11
4.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 11 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-8
4.5%
Austin Allen sacked by Da'Ron Payne for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 20Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 18
OPP 20
+100
0.3%
Minkah Fitzpatrick 100 Yd Interception Return (Adam Griffith Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
0.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dan Skipper) to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
0.3%
Austin Allen run for 8 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-4
0.2%
Austin Allen sacked by Christian Miller and Rashaan Evans for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Toby Baker punt for 56 yds, downed at the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
0.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 17 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
0.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
0.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-2
0.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
0.2%
JK Scott punt for 47 yds, downed at the Ark 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 1:330% → 3%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
0.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+20
0.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 20 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+24
0.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 24 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
0.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+37
0.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 37 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
0.1%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 5 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
1.0%
B.J. Emmons run for 2 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
1.0%
B.J. Emmons run for 5 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
0.7%
B.J. Emmons run for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
0.7%
JK Scott punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:151% → 1%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
0.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 6 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-9
0.7%
Austin Allen sacked by Terrell Hall for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 17Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+14
0.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 14 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+29
0.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 29 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:29
Keon Hatcher 16 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)
+10.8
TD · Q3 3:57
Keon Hatcher 10 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Adam McFain Kick)
+8.6
TD · Q3 11:10
Calvin Ridley 4 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Adam Griffith Kick)
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com