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MEM

Memphis 28 at Ole Miss 48

MISS
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:15 · Spencer Smith pass complete to Arthur Maulet for 12 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+19.5Home team on offense+20.6Score differential+13.8Garbage-time factor+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8Time remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:25: Jason Pellerin 3 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +5.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:11: Doroland Dorceus 11 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +5.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:36: Riley Ferguson 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +11.9 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:53: Evan Engram 12 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +7.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:41: Riley Ferguson 2 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick) — MEM win probability +4.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 11:36MEM 4th & 4 at MISS 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:13MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:35MISS 4th & 4 at MEM 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:22MISS 4th & 6 at MEM 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:43MEM 4th & 17 at MEM 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:39MISS 4th & 4 at MEM 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:57MISS 4th & 2 at MEM 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.8%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:39MISS 4th & 6 at MEM 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−5.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:15MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 27, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:37MISS 4th & 5 at midfield, up 13
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:35MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:58MISS 4th & 1 at MEM 20, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:55MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:58MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:25MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:11MEM Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:36MEM Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:53MISS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:53MISS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:41MEM Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:00MISS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:2412% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
88.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 7 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
88.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 1 yd to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
88.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 6 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
88.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 5 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
87.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 7 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+1
87.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 1 yd to the Miss 44Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-2
87.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
87.4%
Nick Jacobs punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 4:4188% → 88%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
87.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 14 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
87.3%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+13
87.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 13 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
87.3%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+19
87.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 19 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
87.3%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+8
87.2%
Chad Kelly run for 8 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
87.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 9 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
86.9%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
86.8%
D.K. Buford run for 1 yd to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
86.8%
Jason Pellerin run for 7 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+7
86.6%
Akeem Judd run for 7 yds to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.8%
Jason Pellerin 1 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3713% → 13%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
87.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 15 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
87.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
87.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+1
86.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 1 yd to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
87.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:3887% → 87%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
87.2%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+9
87.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 9 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
87.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 9 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+9
87.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 9 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
87.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 11 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
87.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Markell PackSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
87.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Taz ZettergrenSimilar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+6
87.1%
Chad Kelly pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 6 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
86.8%
Chad Kelly punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5INT TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3713% → 11%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
86.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 4 yds to the Memph 24 MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Daniel Montiel) to the Memph 12Similar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 18
OWN 12
+3
86.5%
Anthony Miller run for 3 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+13
86.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 13 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+31
88.7%
Zedrick Woods 31 Yd Interception Return (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 0:5511% → 15%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+41
88.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 41 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
87.9%
Riley Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+10
87.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 10 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
84.9%
Anthony Miller 7 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 2:3486% → 87%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
86.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 8 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
86.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 9 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Eugene BrazleySimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
86.6%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+39
86.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 39 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
87.0%
Brazley, Eugene rush for 3 yards to the MEMPHIS16, PENALTY MEMPHIS substitution infraction 5 yards to the MEMPHIS14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 5
OPP 14
-3
86.9%
Chad Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+2
86.9%
Chad Kelly pass complete to A.J. Brown for 2 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
86.6%
Chad Kelly pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:22
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
86.5%
Gary Wunderlich 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:2913% → 13%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
86.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 18 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
86.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 15
OWN 39
-2
86.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 17
OWN 37
0
86.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 17
OWN 37
0
86.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 17
OWN 37
0
87.1%
Spencer Smith punt for 51 yds, downed at the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:0487% → 86%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
86.5%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+8
86.4%
Akeem Judd run for 8 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jared Gentry) to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+5
86.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 5 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
86.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 16 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
87.0%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
86.9%
Eugene Brazley run for no gain to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+6
86.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 6 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
86.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10FUMBLE
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:5114% → 13%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
86.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+15
86.4%
Anthony Miller run for 15 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
86.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Jae'Lon Oglesby for 6 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+22
85.6%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
84.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 22 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
84.0%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+10
84.3%
Ferguson, Riley pass incomplete to Miller, Anthony, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Bridges, Tony) 10 yards to the OLEMISS14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
83.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 14
OPP 18
-13
84.5%
Sam Craft sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 13 yards to the Miss 31 MEMPHIS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sam Craft) to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 27
OWN 31
-3
86.6%
Riley Ferguson sacked by John Youngblood for a loss of 12 yards to the Memph 30 Riley Ferguson fumbled, forced by John Youngblood, recovered by Miss D.J. Jones , return for 0 yards , return for 12 yds to the Memph 19 MEMPHIS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:2387% → 93%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
87.0%
Akeem Judd run for 8 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
86.9%
Jason Pellerin run for no gain to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
86.8%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+3
86.2%
Jason Pellerin run for 3 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
87.4%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+16
87.5%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 16 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.5%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Memph 3Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.9%
Jason Pellerin 3 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:189% → 8%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
91.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sam Craft for 3 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
91.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+11
91.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 11 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
91.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
91.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:2193% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
92.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 19 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+53
93.2%
Akeem Judd run for 53 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
93.2%
D.K. Buford run for 2 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.3%
D.K. Buford run for no gain to the Memph 1Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
93.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 6Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
93.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Markell PackSimilar
Q3 12:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
97.0%
Gary Wunderlich 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:284% → 10%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 8 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-10
95.9%
Dorceus, Doroland rush for 4 yards to the MEMPHIS37, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (Tate, Trevon) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
96.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 4 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
96.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
96.1%
Spencer Smith pass complete to Arthur Maulet for 12 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+42
95.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 42 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
95.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 8 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+11
89.6%
Doroland Dorceus 11 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:2992% → 92%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
92.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 1 yd to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+22
92.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Evan Engram for 22 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
92.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+10
92.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 5
50
0
92.5%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 5
50
0
92.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 5
50
0
91.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 49 yds, downed at the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
14 plays · 99 yds · 5:018% → 22%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
92.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 4 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+14
92.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 14 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
91.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 7 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+3
91.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
91.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 40Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
91.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+15
91.6%
Ferguson, Riley pass incomplete to Mayhue, Phil, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Julius, Jalen) 15 yards to the OLEMISS45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
90.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sam Craft for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 46Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+6
91.0%
Riley Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+17
91.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 17 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
90.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+19
90.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sam Craft for 19 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.2%
Riley Ferguson 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:3683% → 94%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
83.4%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 9 yds to the Miss 44Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+17
86.3%
Eugene Brazley run for 17 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
86.2%
Eugene Brazley run for no gain to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+16
86.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 16 yds to the Memph 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
86.8%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
86.6%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 11 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
94.3%
Evan Engram 12 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:167% → 6%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 20Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.5%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
93.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
93.6%
Spencer Smith punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:4294% → 99%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+29
94.3%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 29 yds to the Memph 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.4%
Eugene Brazley run for no gain to the Memph 6Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.8%
Eugene Brazley 6 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20INT
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:552% → 1%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
98.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Sam Craft for 14 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+14
98.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 14 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
98.7%
Ferguson, Riley pass complete to Pollard, Tony for loss of 3 yards to the MEMPHIS42, PENALTY OLEMISS roughing passer (Anderson, Deontay) 15 yards to the OLEMISS40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to John WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
98.8%
Jae'Lon Oglesby run for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
98.8%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted D.J. Jones return for no gain to the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:1499% → 99%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.0%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
50
+10
99.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 10 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 8 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+10
99.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 10 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.1%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
99.1%
Chad Kelly pass intercepted, touchback. Arthur Maulet return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:581% → 5%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
99.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 26 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.9%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Phil Mayhue MEMPHIS Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
98.9%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
99.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 5 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+24
98.9%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Jae'Lon Oglesby for 24 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
98.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.8%
Riley Ferguson 2 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:4196% → 100%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+26
96.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 26 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
96.7%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 7 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+3
96.8%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 3 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
96.9%
Eugene Brazley run for 9 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+1
97.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
97.2%
Chad Kelly pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 12 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
97.3%
Chad Kelly sacked by Jonathan Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 15
OPP 32
0
97.2%
Chad Kelly pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+32
99.5%
Eugene Brazley 32 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:221% → 1%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Jae'Lon OglesbySimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.5%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Zedrick Woods return for 1 yd to the Memph 40 Zedrick Woods fumbled, forced by Daniel Hurd, recovered by Miss Myles HartsfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25END OF GAME
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:38100% → 100%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
99.5%
Akeem Judd run for 9 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+2
99.5%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
99.6%
Jason Pellerin run for 6 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+2
99.6%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
99.6%
Jason Pellerin run for 1 yd to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+5
99.6%
Eugene Brazley run for 5 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.7%
D.K. Buford run for 3 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
99.7%
D.K. Buford run for 3 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+1
99.7%
Jason Pellerin run for 1 yd to the Memph 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:36
Riley Ferguson 1 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)
-11.9
TD · Q3 1:53
Evan Engram 12 Yd pass from Chad Kelly (Gary Wunderlich Kick)
+7.7
TD · Q3 10:11
Doroland Dorceus 11 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com