Try the model
MIZ

Missouri 7 at LSU 42

LSU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:02 · Josh Growden punt for 53 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Pregame prior+20.3Home team on offense+19.8Score differential+14.0Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:46: Derrius Guice 42 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:34: Derrius Guice 4 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:40: Derrius Guice 37 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:35: Marvin Zanders run for 2 yds to the Misso 21 — MIZ win probability +1.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:09: Darrel Williams 1 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:25MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:40LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:59MIZ 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:47MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:23LSU 4th & 2 at MIZ 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:48MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:20MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:02LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:55MIZ 4th & 2 at LSU 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:54LSU 4th & 6 at MIZ 29, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:40MIZ 4th & 9 at LSU 40, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:46MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 47, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:59MIZ 4th & 1 at LSU 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:19MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 12, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:46LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:34LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:40LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:09LSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:00LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:11MIZ Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:32LSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3014% → 15%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
85.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for no gain to the Misso 35Similar
Q1 14:41
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
85.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q1 14:25
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
85.5%
Corey Fatony punt for 52 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for no gain to the LSU 35 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:4086% → 85%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
85.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 11 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrius GuiceSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
85.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
85.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+4
85.3%
Josh Growden punt for 42 yds , Chris Black returns for 4 yds to the Misso 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3215% → 15%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
85.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Jason Reese for 3 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-5
85.2%
Crockett, Damarea rush for 5 yards to the LSU48, PENALTY MISSOURI illegal shift 5 yards to the MISSOURI42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+2
85.1%
Damarea Crockett run for 2 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+6
85.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 4
50
0
84.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 5:0585% → 85%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
84.8%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+2
84.7%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
84.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 7 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+7
84.4%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.2%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
83.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 1
50
+2
83.9%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
83.8%
Darrel Williams run for 6 yds to the Misso 42Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+42
85.3%
Derrius Guice 42 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5315% → 15%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Chris BlackSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
84.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Chris BlackSimilar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+4
85.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 54 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 4 yds to the LSU 30 LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Xavier Lewis) to the LSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:1785% → 84%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
84.8%
Darrel Williams run for 14 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
84.8%
Danny Etling sacked by Michael Scherer for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+10
84.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Jazz Ferguson for 10 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
84.7%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
84.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 8 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+22
84.9%
Derrius Guice run for 22 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
84.9%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the Misso 32Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
84.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to J.D. MooreSimilar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+7
84.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 7 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q1 0:23
4TH & 2
OPP 25
0
84.1%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the Misso 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:4016% → 18%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.6%
Ish Witter run for 12 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
83.2%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+8
82.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Chris Black for 8 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.5%
Drew Lock pass intercepted Tre'Davious White return for no gain to the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 5:5584% → 88%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
83.6%
Darrel Williams run for 13 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
83.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
83.5%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+14
83.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 14 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
84.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 12 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
84.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 12 yds to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
84.5%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Misso 32Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+4
84.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 4 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+8
84.0%
Derrius Guice run for 8 yds to the Misso 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
84.4%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Misso 18Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+14
84.4%
Danny Etling run for 14 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.2%
Derrius Guice 4 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:3713% → 13%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.8%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
86.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 19 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
86.4%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
86.2%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+1
86.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 1 yd to the Misso 48Similar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
86.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 93 yds · 1:5887% → 95%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
86.6%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+14
86.8%
Darrel Williams run for 14 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
87.0%
D.J. Chark run for 18 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
87.7%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete to Jeter, Colin, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference (Hall, Terez) 15 yards to the MISSOURI37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
87.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
95.1%
Derrius Guice 37 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:157% → 6%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
93.4%
Marvin Zanders run for 2 yds to the Misso 21Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
93.8%
Marvin Zanders run for 4 yds to the Misso 25Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+11
93.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Richaud Floyd for 11 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Richaud FloydSimilar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
93.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Chris BlackSimilar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
94.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Chris BlackSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
94.1%
Corey Fatony punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:1195% → 96%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
95.4%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+20
95.3%
Darrel Williams run for 20 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.9%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.9%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
95.9%
Danny Etling run for 5 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
95.7%
Josh Growden punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:576% → 5%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.5%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+20
94.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 20 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
94.6%
Drew Lock sacked by Greg Gilmore and Arden Key for a loss of 8 yards to the Misso 35Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+16
95.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 16 yds to the LSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4496% → 99%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.9%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
96.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
50
+6
96.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 6 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+21
96.5%
Derrius Guice run for 21 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+18
96.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 18 yds to the Misso 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
96.7%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the Misso 1Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
Darrel Williams 1 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:011% → 1%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
99.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 18 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
99.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for 14 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.2%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+3
99.2%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Chris BlackSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.3%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+5
99.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Chris Black for 5 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+1
99.0%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.5%
D.J. Chark run for 8 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+6
99.4%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.6%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+22
99.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Jazz Ferguson for 7 yds to the MISSOURI 48 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Lee) to the Misso 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.7%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-1
99.7%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 29Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
99.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
99.7%
Colby Delahoussaye 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 8 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+21
99.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 21 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Chris BlackSimilar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+1
99.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Damarea Crockett for 1 yd to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Corey Fatony punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
99.7%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
99.7%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the LSU 5Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 8
OWN 5
-2
99.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (K.J. Malone) to the LSU 3Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
99.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
99.8%
MISSOURI Penalty, False Start (Kevin Pendleton) to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+3
99.8%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Chris BlackSimilar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Corey Fatony punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 5:36100% → 100%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 5 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+9
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 9 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
99.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Ethan Pocic) to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+4
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Bry'Kiethon Mouton for 4 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+41
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 41 yds to the Misso 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
99.8%
Darrel Williams run for 8 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
99.8%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the Misso 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Misso 17Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+11
99.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 11 yds to the Misso 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the Misso 2Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Darrel Williams 2 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 3:340% → 0%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 18 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Chris Black for 11 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
99.9%
Drew Lock sacked by Davon Godchaux for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete, PENALTY LSU holding (White, Tre'Davious) 10 yards to the LSU49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+16
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Tyler Hanneke for 16 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
Marvin Zanders run for 3 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Drew Lock 21 Yd pass from Eric Laurent (Tucker McCann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+60
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 60 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the Misso 9Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Darrel Williams 9 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.9%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Sean Culkin for no gain to the Misso 12Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Corey Fatony punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
Lanard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
Lanard Fournette run for 4 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
100.0%
Lanard Fournette run for 5 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Misso 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:40
Derrius Guice 37 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)
+7.3
TD · Q2 8:34
Derrius Guice 4 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)
+3.8
TD · Q3 11:09
Darrel Williams 1 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com