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ULM

UL Monroe 7 at Auburn 58

AUB
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:21 · Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Aub 2 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+34.2Home team on offense+26.2Score differential+19.2Blowout margin+10.6Garbage-time factor+5.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:31: Sean White pass complete to Kyle Davis for 48 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:12: Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:05: Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK) — ULM win probability +1.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:28: Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 48 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:26AUB 4th & 10 at ULM 39, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:26ULM 4th & 6 at AUB 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:31ULM 4th & 17 at ULM 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:43ULM 4th & 4 at AUB 25, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:21ULM 4th & 1 at AUB 4, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    -1.1%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:28ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 34, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:30ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 42, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ULM 4th & 7 at AUB 13, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:32AUB 4th & 1 at ULM 1, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:42AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:31AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:12AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:05AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:00ULM Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:28AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:30AUB Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:09AUB Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:08AUB Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 12 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
98.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Garrett Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+1
98.0%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+3
98.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 3 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
98.0%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:5398% → 98%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
97.7%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
97.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+6
97.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
97.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 13 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
97.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+21
97.8%
Stanton Truitt run for 21 yds to the LaMon 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
97.8%
Stanton Truitt run for 3 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+10
97.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 10 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the LaMon 8Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
97.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.5%
Sean White run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Johnathan FordSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus Green, broken up by Johnathan FordSimilar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+25
97.5%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 50 yds , Marcus Davis returns for 25 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:3797% → 97%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
50
+11
97.4%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
97.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
97.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
97.4%
Sean White pass incomplete to Marcus Davis, broken up by Juwan OffraySimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+56
97.3%
Daniel Carlson 56 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Caleb TuckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 7:26
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+15
97.3%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 15 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Duke Carter IVSimilar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
97.2%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
97.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Nick RuffinSimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
97.3%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 36 yds, downed at the Aub 9Similar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
97.2%
Garrett Smith sacked by Carl Lawson for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
97.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+11
97.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 11 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
97.1%
Sean White run for 4 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-17
97.1%
Sean White sacked by Tre' Hunter for a loss of 17 yards to the Aub 21 Sean White fumbled, recovered by LaMon Tyler Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
96.5%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 4 yds Xavier Brown fumbled, forced by Tre' Williams, recovered by Aub Johnathan FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:0097% → 97%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+22
96.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 22 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
96.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 12 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
96.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 48Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+48
97.4%
Sean White pass complete to Kyle Davis for 48 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.2%
Garrett Smith run for 6 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
97.1%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
97.1%
Ben Luckett run for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
97.2%
Garrett Smith pass complete to D'Marius Gillespie for no gain to the LaMon 28Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 17
OWN 28
0
97.2%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by Carlton DavisSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
97.2%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 44 yds , Marcus Davis returns for no gain to the Aub 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:5197% → 98%
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
97.2%
Sean White run for 7 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+19
97.2%
Eli Stove run for 19 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
97.3%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 8 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+5
97.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
97.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 10 yds to the LaMon 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
97.3%
Sean White pass complete to Eli Stove for 12 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
97.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+6
97.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the LaMon 1Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11MISSED FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:292% → 2%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
Austin Vaughn run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
98.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 10 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the LaMon 43Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
98.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 6 yds to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
98.0%
Austin Vaughn run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
50
-2
98.0%
Garrett Smith sacked by Montravius Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+1
98.1%
Austin Vaughn run for 1 yd to the LaMon 49Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+20
98.1%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Rj Turner for 20 yds to the Aub 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
97.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
97.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 2 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
98.0%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen HolleySimilar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+5
97.9%
Craig Ford 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Joshua Holsey return for 5 yds to the Aub 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:3898% → 99%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
98.4%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 19 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
98.4%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 23 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
98.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+7
98.4%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 7 yds to the LaMon 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
98.4%
Kam Martin run for 6 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
98.4%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 1 yd to the LaMon 2Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 4:050% → 2%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Ben Luckett run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.6%
Garrett Smith run for 3 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.5%
Garrett Smith left flat pass incomplete to Alec Osborne, PENALTY AU offside (Jeff Holland) 5 yards to the ULM34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.5%
Ben Luckett run for 4 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+37
99.6%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Xavier Brown for 37 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.5%
Ben Luckett run for 3 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
99.5%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+7
99.4%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
99.5%
Garrett Smith run for 7 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
99.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Aub 4Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 1
OPP 4
0
99.6%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Johnathan FordSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+2
99.4%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Aub 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.4%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.4%
Garrett Smith right endzone pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, PENALTY AU pass interference (Joshua Holsey) 0 yards to the AU2, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.0%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 2:2699% → 100%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
98.5%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 14 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
98.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+10
98.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
98.6%
Sean White run for 6 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+8
98.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+48
99.7%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 48 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.7%
Thomas Koufie run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
99.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.7%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Thomas Koufie for 9 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+12
99.6%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 24 , Marcus Davis returns for 12 yds to the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
99.7%
Sean White pass complete to Will Hastings for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+7
99.7%
Sean White run for 7 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+10
99.7%
Sean White pass complete to Kyle Davis for 10 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.7%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+15
99.7%
Sean White deep pass incomplete to Tony Stevens (Justin Backus), PENALTY ULM pass interference (Justin Backus) 15 yards to the ULM46, 1ST DOWN AU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.7%
Malik Miller run for 7 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+35
99.7%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 35 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.7%
Malik Miller run for no gain to the LaMon 4Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Malik Miller run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Garrett Smith run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Thomas Koufie for 8 yds to the LaMon 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.8%
Thomas Koufie run for 2 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Ajalen Holley for 2 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Ajalen Holley, broken up by Stephen RobertsSimilar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Dayton Balvanz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.8%
Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+80
99.8%
John Franklin III run for 80 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Duke Carter IV run for no gain to the LaMon 25Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 12 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Garrett Smith pass intercepted Javaris Davis return for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Malik Miller run for 14 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
John Franklin III run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
99.9%
Malik Miller run for 7 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Malik Miller run for 5 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
99.9%
Malik Miller run for 11 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
99.9%
Malik Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-2
99.9%
Malik Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 39Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+39
99.9%
John Franklin III pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 39 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 60 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Ben Luckett run for 2 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+17
99.9%
Ben Luckett run for 17 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
99.9%
Marcus Green run for 17 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Ben Luckett run for no gain to the Aub 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Jared Mapps for 2 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+19
99.9%
Duke Carter IV run for 19 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
99.9%
Duke Carter IV run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Garrett Smith pass complete to Duke Carter IV for no gain to the Aub 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GreenSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Garrett Smith pass incomplete to Xavier Brown, broken up by John Broussard Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22DOWNS
17 plays · 86 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
99.9%
Stanton Truitt run for 6 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+1
99.9%
Stanton Truitt run for 1 yd to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Stanton Truitt run for 4 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.9%
Stanton Truitt run for 7 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Stanton Truitt run for 4 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Kam Martin run for 6 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+21
99.9%
Kam Martin run for 6 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST down UL MONROE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.9%
Kam Martin run for 6 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
99.9%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
99.9%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the LaMon 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.9%
Kam Martin run for 1 yd to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+13
99.9%
Damian Lewis run for 13 yds to the LaMon 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Damian Lewis run for 4 yds to the LaMon 5Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
Damian Lewis run for 3 yds to the LaMon 2Similar
Q4 11:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Damian Lewis run for 1 yd to the LaMon 1Similar
Q4 11:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Damian Lewis run for no gain to the LaMon 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
100.0%
Garrett Smith run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY Garrett Smith fumbled, recovered by LaMon Garrett Smith for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Garrett Smith pass complete to Marcus Green for 2 yds for a TD, (Craig Ford KICK)
-1.3
TD · Q3 12:28
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 48 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 12:12
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com