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ALCN

Alcorn State 10 at Arkansas 52

ARK
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · War Memorial Stadium (AR)
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadALCN aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreALCN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:10 · Arron Baker run for 6 yds to the Ark 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 12:11: Cole Hedlund 25 yd FG GOOD — ALCN win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 9:03: Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ALCN win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:44: Noah Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Haiden McCraney KICK) — ALCN win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:42: Noah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Henre' Toliver return for 70 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALCN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:44: Cody Hollister run for 26 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK) — ARK win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ALCN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:11ARK 4th & 5 at ALCN 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:11ALCN 4th & 13 at ALCN 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:03ALCN 4th & 10 at ALCN 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:22ALCN 4th & 8 at ALCN 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:44ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:21ALCN 4th & 22 at ARK 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:51ARK 4th & 7 at ALCN 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:40ALCN 4th & 19 at ARK 26, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:36ALCN 4th & 12 at ARK 23, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:36ALCN 4th & 11 at ALCN 24, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:33ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 30, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ALCN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:03ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:22ARK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:17ARK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:44ALCN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:42ARK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:44ARK Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:49ARK Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:36ARK Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
99.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds to the AlcSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+8
99.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 8 yds to the AlcSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
99.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 14 yds to the AlcSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the AlcSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+3
99.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
99.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Austin CantrellSimilar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
99.7%
Cole Hedlund 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
99.7%
Silas Spearman run for a loss of 5 yards to the AlcSt 11Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+3
99.7%
Silas Spearman run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 14Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-5
99.7%
ALCORN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AlcSt 9Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 17
OWN 9
+4
99.7%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Jaborian McKenzie for 4 yds to the AlcSt 13Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 13
OWN 13
+33
99.7%
Haiden McCraney punt for 49 yds , Drew Morgan returns for 33 yds to the AlcSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 29 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.6%
De'Lance Turner run for no gain to the AlcSt 28Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Noah Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Ryan PulleySimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+47
99.6%
Haiden McCraney punt for 37 yds ARKANSAS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 75 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
99.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Jaborian McKenzie for 7 yds to the AlcSt 29Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+8
99.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to LaDarrien Davis for 8 yds to the AlcSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.6%
De'Lance Turner run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 41Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-2
99.6%
De'Lance Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the AlcSt 39Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Jaborian McKenzieSimilar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Haiden McCraney punt for 43 yds, downed at the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+29
99.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 29 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.6%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan, broken up by D'Andre SmithSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.6%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 7
50
+15
99.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 15 yds to the AlcSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
99.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 9 yds to the AlcSt 26Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+6
99.6%
Kody Walker run for 6 yds to the AlcSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
99.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Dominique Reed for 11 yards to the ALCN9 (Eric Foster), PENALTY AR illegal block (Dan Skipper) 15 yards to the ALCN35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+35
99.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 35 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 8TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:330% → 1%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.6%
Arron Baker run for a loss of 2 yards to the AlcSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+28
99.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Jaborian McKenzie for 28 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.6%
Noah Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+1
99.6%
Noah Johnson pass complete to LaDarrien Davis for 1 yd to the Ark 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+8
99.6%
Arron Baker run for 8 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.6%
De'Lance Turner run for 6 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+3
99.6%
De'Lance Turner run for 3 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
99.6%
Arron Baker run for 3 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.3%
Noah Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Haiden McCraney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.5%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
99.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 12 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
99.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
99.5%
T.J. Hammonds run for 1 yd to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Kody Walker run for no gain to the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
99.1%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Jaborian McKenzie for 11 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
99.1%
Arron Baker run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 14
OPP 38
-2
99.2%
Arron Baker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 16
OPP 40
-6
99.2%
Noah Johnson sacked by Deatrich Wise Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 46 Noah Johnson fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 22
OPP 46
0
99.2%
Haiden McCraney punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Drew Morgan at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:3899% → 99%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
99.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 10 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
99.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 24 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
99.3%
Cody Hollister run for 22 yds to the AlcSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.3%
T.J. Hammonds run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 26Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
99.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Deago SamaSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
99.2%
Cole Hedlund 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 68 yds · 1:401% → 1%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.0%
Arron Baker run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 30Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
98.9%
De'Lance Turner run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 35Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+9
98.9%
Arron Baker run for 9 yds to the AlcSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
98.9%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Jaborian McKenzie for 16 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
98.8%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Jalen Walker for 39 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ark De'Andre ColeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
99.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 5 yds to the Ark 11 to N/A for no gain to the Ark 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 14INT TD
10 plays · 41 yds · 5:181% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
98.8%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Norlando Veals for 4 yds to the AlcSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
98.8%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Jaborian McKenzie for 5 yds to the AlcSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
98.8%
Arron Baker run for 1 yd to the AlcSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
98.8%
Noah Johnson run for 9 yds to the AlcSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+11
98.7%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Collins Moore for 11 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
98.7%
Arron Baker run for 5 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
98.6%
Arron Baker run for 6 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.6%
Noah Johnson run for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+70
99.3%
Noah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Henre' Toliver return for 70 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 15INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.4%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Arron Baker for 7 yds to the AlcSt 32Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+17
99.4%
Noah Johnson pass complete to Jaborian McKenzie for 17 yds to the AlcSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
99.4%
De'Lance Turner run for 2 yds to the ARKANSAS 49 ALCORN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Ladonn Bolden) to the AlcSt 41Similar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 18
OWN 41
+2
99.4%
Noah Johnson pass intercepted Josh Liddell return for 2 yds to the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:0799% → 100%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 8 yds to the AlcSt 47Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+8
99.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 8 yds to the AlcSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 9 yds to the AlcSt 30Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+4
99.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the AlcSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.9%
Cody Hollister run for 26 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 17FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Arron Baker run for 5 yds to the AlcSt 30Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+53
99.8%
Noah Johnson run for 53 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-13
99.8%
Noah Johnson sacked by Bijhon Jackson for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 30 ALCORN ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Noah Johnson) to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 23
OPP 30
+4
99.8%
Noah Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 19
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Noah Johnson pass incomplete to Collins MooreSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 19
OPP 26
+43
99.9%
Haiden McCraney 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:51100% → 100%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
99.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Austin Cantrell) to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
99.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 18 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
99.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 17 yds to the AlcSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete, broken up by D'Andre SmithSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+10
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 10 yds to the AlcSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 9 yds to the AlcSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+7
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the AlcSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 10 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 3:130% → 0%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+46
99.9%
Arron Baker run for 46 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.9%
De'Lance Turner run for 1 yd to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+1
99.9%
De'Lance Turner run for 1 yd to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-4
99.9%
Noah Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+41
99.9%
Haiden McCraney 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Dan Skipper De'Andre Coley return for 1 yd to the Ark 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+19
99.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 19 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
99.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 24 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 14 yds to the AlcSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
99.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 12 yds to the AlcSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
99.9%
T.J. Hammonds run for 13 yds to the AlcSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
99.9%
T.J. Hammonds run for 7 yds to the AlcSt 5Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
De'Lance Turner run for 3 yds to the AlcSt 28Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
100.0%
De'Lance Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the AlcSt 26Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
100.0%
Noah Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the AlcSt 24Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Haiden McCraney punt for 51 yds, fair catch by T.J. Hammonds at the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Damon Mitchell run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Damon Mitchell run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-7
100.0%
Ty Storey run for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 25 Ty Storey fumbled, recovered by AlcSt Julius LawrenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
100.0%
Silas Spearman run for 1 yd to the Ark 23 Silas Spearman fumbled, forced by Randy Ramsey, recovered by Ark Randy RamseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
100.0%
Damon Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
100.0%
Damon Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
Connor McPherson run for 2 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+2
100.0%
Connor McPherson run for 2 yds to the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
100.0%
Arron Baker run for 6 yds to the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:42
Noah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Henre' Toliver return for 70 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q3 5:44
Cody Hollister run for 26 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 10:44
Noah Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Haiden McCraney KICK)
-0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com