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ARK

Arkansas 24 at Texas A&M 45

TA&M
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:55 · Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 7 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense+29.7Score differential+22.2Pregame prior+1.5Garbage-time factor+8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: Trevor Knight 42 Yd Run (Daniel LaCamera Kick) — TA&M win probability +6.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:31: Rawleigh Williams III 8 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick) — ARK win probability +13.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:13: Trevor Knight 48 Yd Run (Daniel LaCamera Kick) — TA&M win probability +16.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:33: Josh Reynolds 92 Yd pass from Trevor Knight (Daniel LaCamera Kick) — TA&M win probability +20.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:54: Trayveon Williams 33 Yd Run (Daniel LaCamera Kick) — TA&M win probability +7.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 5:17ARK 4th & 20 at ARK 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:21TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:59ARK 4th & 7 at TA&M 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−3.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:27TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:42TA&M 4th & 7 at ARK 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:15ARK 4th & 1 at TA&M 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−5.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−20.5
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:00ARK 4th & 3 at TA&M 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:55ARK 4th & 4 at TA&M 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:31ARK 4th & 8 at TA&M 9, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:29ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:31ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:33TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:54TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:25TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:21ARK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:57TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0038% → 38%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
62.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
62.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3138% → 39%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
61.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the TexAM 15Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
60.9%
Keon Hatcher 15 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:2061% → 61%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.2%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
61.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 2
50
+2
61.1%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+27
61.1%
Keith Ford run for 27 yds to the Ark 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
61.2%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
61.0%
Trevor Knight run for 2 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
-3
60.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Trayveon Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 3:5340% → 42%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
59.7%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 19Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+8
59.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 8 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
58.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 5 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
58.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-5
58.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Sprinkle) to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 17
OWN 25
-4
58.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Rawleigh Williams III for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 21 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 21
OWN 21
+1
58.5%
Kody Walker run for 1 yd to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 20
OWN 22
0
58.4%
Toby Baker punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5158% → 57%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.1%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
57.9%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
57.5%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian Kirk, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+50
57.1%
Shane Tripucka punt for 50 yds , Jared Cornelius returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:2943% → 46%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
57.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-1
57.2%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 13Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+18
57.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 18 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
56.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-3
55.3%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+23
55.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 23 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
53.9%
Dominique Reed run for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 49 Dominique Reed fumbled, recovered by TexAM Myles GarrettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:4857% → 63%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
56.9%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian Kirk, broken up by Josh LiddellSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+9
56.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+42
62.8%
Trevor Knight 42 Yd Run (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:4640% → 43%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
60.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 14 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
59.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 4 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+55
59.0%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 55 yds to the TexAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.0%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Moore, Richard) 1 yards to the TEXASAM1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
57.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 2Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
57.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 7 yards to the TexAM 9Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
58.5%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete to Hatcher, Keon (Harvey, Nick), PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Harvey, Nick) 7 yards to the TEXASAM2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
57.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the TexAM 2Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
57.3%
Kendrick Jackson run for no gain to the TexAM 2Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
58.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
58.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Dan Skipper) to the TexAM 7Similar
Q2 9:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
57.1%
Cole Hedlund 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2058% → 56%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
57.5%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
57.4%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
56.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-Jones, broken up by Josh LiddellSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 10
OWN 5
0
56.1%
Shane Tripucka punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:1445% → 47%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
50
-3
55.4%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+44
56.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Keon Hatcher for 44 yds to the TexAM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
53.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 8 yds to the TexAM 1 Rawleigh Williams III fumbled, forced by Armani Watts, recovered by TexAM Armani WattsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:0056% → 63%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
55.9%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the TexAM 2Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
55.6%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the TexAM 4Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+15
55.5%
Knight, Trevor pass incomplete to Noil, Speedy (Pulley, Ryan), PENALTY ARKANSAS personal foul (Coley, De'Andre) 15 yards to the TEXASAM19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM. Coley ejected for targeting.Similar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
56.8%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the TexAM 20Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+47
56.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 47 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
60.8%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 38 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Block (Colton Prater) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 15
OPP 38
-1
58.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Trayveon Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+9
56.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
63.0%
Daniel LaCamera 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5941% → 58%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
58.6%
Kody Walker run for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
56.6%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete to Morgan, Drew (Washington, Shaan), PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Harvey, Nick) 10 yards to the TEXASAM48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
55.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
55.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 4 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-5
55.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Brian Wallace) to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+38
55.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 38 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
41.7%
Rawleigh Williams III 8 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 0:5748% → 64%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
47.9%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+6
47.0%
Trevor Knight run for 6 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+17
46.6%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 17 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
49.4%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Keith FordSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
48.2%
Trevor Knight run for 6 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+48
64.2%
Trevor Knight 48 Yd Run (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
57.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15FUMBLE
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:3060% → 64%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
60.4%
Trevor Knight run for 2 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+18
60.4%
Keith Ford run for 18 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
61.0%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
50
+12
63.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 12 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
63.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-5
64.6%
Trevor Knight sacked by Karl Roesler for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+16
61.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 16 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
64.4%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Frank Iheanacho for 7 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+15
64.4%
Trayveon Williams run for 15 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
64.4%
Trevor Knight run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 5 Trevor Knight fumbled, recovered by Ark Dre GreenlawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16DOWNS
22 plays · 89 yds · 9:4543% → 47%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
57.5%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 2 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 7
0
57.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon HatcherSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+18
58.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 18 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.7%
Kody Walker run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
56.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy SprinkleSimilar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
57.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 9 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
55.4%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
55.9%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+11
57.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nick Harvey) to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
52.9%
Kody Walker run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 7
50
+12
52.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 12 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
52.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+15
52.1%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete to Morgan, Drew, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Willis, Priest) 15 yards to the TEXASAM24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
50.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Keon Hatcher, broken up by Priest WillisSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
50.8%
Jared Cornelius run for 7 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+4
52.7%
Austin Allen run for 4 yds to the TexAM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
50.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 11 yds to the TexAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
50.2%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 1 yd to the TexAM 1Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.0%
Austin Allen run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.5%
Austin Allen run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
53.5%
Keon Hatcher run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17TD
2 plays · 94 yds · 0:2760% → 81%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
59.7%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the TexAM 8Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+92
80.5%
Josh Reynolds 92 Yd pass from Trevor Knight (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:2022% → 20%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
77.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 16 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
76.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
74.8%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the TexAM 48Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
75.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Dominique Reed, broken up by Nick HarveySimilar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
79.7%
Toby Baker punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 1:5685% → 95%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
84.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 14 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
85.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
85.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 9 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
87.1%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 8 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
87.9%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
86.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
87.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jared Collins) to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
95.3%
Trayveon Williams 33 Yd Run (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:276% → 7%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Sprinkle for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-13
93.4%
Austin Allen sacked by Daeshon Hall for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 15 Austin Allen fumbled, recovered by TexAM Tyrel Dodson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:3296% → 99%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
95.5%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Frank IheanachoSimilar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
95.6%
James White run for 6 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
98.9%
Christian Kirk 9 Yd pass from Trevor Knight (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 3:391% → 5%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for no gain to the Ark 8Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+7
98.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 7 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+38
98.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 38 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
98.8%
Rawleigh Williams III run for 6 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
98.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew Morgan, broken up by Nick HarveySimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
98.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+7
98.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 7 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
98.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 19 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
98.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cody HollisterSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
98.8%
Austin Allen run for 3 yds to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Kendrick Jackson for 1 yd to the TexAM 5Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.9%
Jared Cornelius 5 Yd pass from Austin Allen (Cole Hedlund Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:1397% → 100%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
96.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+23
97.1%
Trayveon Williams run for 23 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.5%
Trayveon Williams 22 Yd Run (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 66 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
99.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 33 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
99.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 21 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
99.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 3 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
99.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-10
99.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Hjalte Froholdt) to the TexAM 28Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 17
OPP 28
+17
99.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cody Hollister for 17 yds to the TexAM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Drew Morgan for 2 yds to the TexAM 9Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
99.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q4 2:38
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
99.4%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Drew MorganSimilar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 8
OPP 9
0
99.4%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
99.5%
Kendall Bussey run for no gain to the TexAM 9Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+1
99.6%
Kendall Bussey run for 1 yd to the TexAM 10Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+62
99.6%
Trevor Knight run for 62 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 13
OPP 31
-3
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:33
Josh Reynolds 92 Yd pass from Trevor Knight (Daniel LaCamera Kick)
+20.9
TD · Q2 0:13
Trevor Knight 48 Yd Run (Daniel LaCamera Kick)
+16
TD · Q2 1:31
Rawleigh Williams III 8 Yd Run (Cole Hedlund Kick)
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com