2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreDSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:03 · F Romo Martinez punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DelSt 9 , Chris Black returns for 51 yds to the DelSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:09: Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 6 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:15: Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 9 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:17: Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3DSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 13:06DSU 4th & 11 at DSU 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 9:05DSU 4th & 8 at DSU 26, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 5:36MIZ 4th & 6 at DSU 14, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.3%84% to makePunt98.9%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:03DSU 4th & 10 at DSU 17, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 2:11DSU 4th & 4 at DSU 24, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 49, up 30Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.7%average punt
- Q2 15:00MIZ 4th & 11 at MIZ 45, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q2 10:57DSU 4th & 8 at DSU 39, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 7:10DSU 4th & 6 at DSU 20, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q2 5:21DSU 4th & 6 at DSU 29, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 10:00DSU 4th & 6 at DSU 29, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 3:15DSU 4th & 16 at DSU 19, down 72Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:16DSU 4th & 2 at DSU 33, down 79Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 13:13MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:12MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:09MIZ Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:15MIZ Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:57MIZ Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:17MIZ Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:21MIZ Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:16MIZ Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:47MIZ Touchdown, up 64 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:15MIZ Touchdown, up 71 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:16MIZ Touchdown, up 78 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIZDrive 1TD10 plays · 94 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+8
99.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 8 yds to the Misso 14Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Keyjuan SelbySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+10
99.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 10 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+24
99.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Chris Black for 24 yds to the DelSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+39
99.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 39 yds to the DelSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIZDrive 3TD6 plays · 99 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q1 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+21
99.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 21 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
99.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 10
50
+46
99.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 46 yds to the DelSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 4 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIZDrive 5FG10 plays · 49 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 11 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 8 yds to the DelSt 44Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+8
99.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 8 yds to the DelSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+18
99.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 18 yds to the DelSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 6INT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 5:30
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+19
99.5%
Daniel Epperson pass intercepted Michael Scherer return for 19 yds to the DelSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7TD1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 6 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 4:03
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+51
99.6%
F Romo Martinez punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DelSt 9 , Chris Black returns for 51 yds to the DelSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 9 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIZDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the Misso 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Misso Drew LockSimilar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 30
OWN 26
+18
99.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 18 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 49
-4
99.8%
Corey Fatony pass complete to Anthony Sherrils for 11 yds to the MISSOURI 40 MISSOURI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ronnell Perkins) to the Misso 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 12FUMBLE6 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 14:42
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+10
99.8%
Kobie Lain pass complete to Mason Rutherford for 10 yds to the DelSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+17
99.8%
Kobie Lain pass complete to Fatu Sua-Godinet for 17 yds to the DelSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
99.7%
Mike Waters run for 2 yds to the DelSt 48 Mike Waters fumbled, forced by Brandon Lee, recovered by Misso Terry Beckner Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13TD5 plays · 48 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
99.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 11 yds to the DelSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIZDrive 15TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q2 9:30
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+18
99.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 18 yds Dimetrios Mason fumbled, forced by Garfield Heslop, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
99.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 8 yds to the DelSt 20Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.9%
Kobie Lain pass complete to Mike Waters for 4 yds to the DelSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD5 plays · 54 yds · 0:48100% → 100%
DSUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MIZDrive 19TD6 plays · 59 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q2 3:43
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+9
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Dimetrios Mason for 9 yds to the Misso 47Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
99.9%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Dilosa, Keyon, PENALTY DSU offside (DeVONE,J.) 5 yards to the DSU48, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Tyler Hanneke for 10 yds to the DelSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 35 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 20INT6 plays · 39 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.9%
Kobie Lain pass complete to Aris Scott for 21 yds to the DelSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
99.9%
Kobie Lain pass complete to Aris Scott for 11 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
Kobie Lain pass complete to Mike Waters for 7 yds to the Misso 36Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+18
99.9%
Kobie Lain pass intercepted John Gibson return for 18 yds to the Misso 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21END OF HALF2 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
DSUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Gil Rivera pass complete to Brycen Alleyne for 6 yds to the DelSt 31Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Gil Rivera pass complete to Brycen Alleyne for 1 yd to the DelSt 27Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+18
99.9%
F Romo Martinez punt for 35 yds , Chris Black returns for 18 yds to the DelSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23TD7 plays · 46 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
DSUDrive 24FUMBLE5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:39
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+10
100.0%
Gil Rivera pass incomplete to Isiah Williams, broken up by Cam Hilton for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the DelSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
100.0%
Gil Rivera sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 8 yards to the DelSt 35 Gil Rivera fumbled, recovered by Misso Brandon Lee , return for 0 yards , return for 2 yds to the DelSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25TD3 plays · 35 yds · 0:31100% → 100%
Q3 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Marvin Zanders pass complete to Eric Laurent for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 26PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:15
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
100.0%
F Romo Martinez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chris Black at the Misso 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 27TD5 plays · 55 yds · 9:10100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
100.0%
Daniel Epperson pass complete to Jordan Hannah for 3 yds to the DelSt 33Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+52
100.0%
F Romo Martinez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dimetrios Mason at the MISSOURI 30 for a 1ST down MISSOURI Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 29END OF GAME8 plays · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:15
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 9 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 4:09
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 6 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 7:17
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
+0.1