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South Carolina 10 at Kentucky 17

UK
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:41 · Sean Kelly punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Home team on offense+2.3Pregame prior+3.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:44: A.J. Turner run for 12 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +10.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:45: Stanley Williams run for 43 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +12.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:19: Elliott Fry 35 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +8.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:21: Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +25.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:35: Timeout SOUTH CAROLINA, clock 02:35 — UK win probability +9.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 7SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 13:59SC 4th & 8 at SC 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35SC 4th & 2 at UK 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:26UK 4th & 15 at UK 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:47SC 4th & 6 at SC 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:15UK 4th & 5 at SC 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:15SC 4th & 3 at SC 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:03UK 4th & 1 at UK 27, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:38UK 4th & 2 at UK 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:08SC 4th & 5 at UK 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−1.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:41SC 4th & 11 at SC 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−2.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:14SC 4th & 3 at UK 44, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.1%−3.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:14UK 4th & 29 at UK 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−5.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:19SC 4th & 3 at UK 17, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%−1.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−12.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:21SC 4th & 7 at SC 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:02UK 4th & 5 at UK 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−1.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:35SC 4th & 17 at UK 35, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:40UK 4th & 1 at SC 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 5:44SC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:45UK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:21UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0143% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
56.7%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 18Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+4
56.9%
Brandon McIlwain run for 4 yds to the SCaro 22Similar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
56.9%
Sean Kelly punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
57.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 11 yds to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
57.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 2 yds Kayaune Ross fumbled, forced by Jamarcus King, recovered by SCaro Marquavius LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1343% → 43%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
56.7%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
56.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 5 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
56.7%
A.J. Turner run for no gain to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
56.7%
Sean Kelly punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
56.9%
Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+5
56.9%
Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+21
57.0%
Stanley Williams run for 21 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
57.2%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start 5 yards to the UK35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+5
57.0%
Stephen Johnson run for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
57.1%
Jojo Kemp run for 4 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-9
57.1%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Darius English for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
56.7%
Grant McKinniss punt for 42 yds, downed at the SCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
56.8%
Brandon McIlwain run for no gain to the SCaro 23Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+10
56.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Terry Googer for 10 yds to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
56.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
56.7%
David Williams run for 6 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-2
56.4%
Brandon McIlwain sacked by Naquez Pringle and Alvonte Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 37Similar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+8
57.1%
Sean Kelly punt for 43 yds , Charles Walker returns for 8 yds to the Kent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 5:5857% → 59%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
57.1%
Stanley Williams run for 11 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
57.5%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-7
57.7%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Dante Sawyer for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+13
56.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 13 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+15
58.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 15 yds to the SCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
58.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 12 yds to the SCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
58.5%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the SCaro 16Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+1
58.5%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the SCaro 15Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+5
57.4%
Grant McKinniss punt 52 yards to the SC1, out-of-bounds, PENALTY SC roughing the kicker 5 yards to the SC48, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
58.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 49Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+5
57.8%
Jojo Kemp run for 5 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+3
59.0%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the SCaro 12Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
59.1%
Austin MacGinnis 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.1%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
58.6%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
58.6%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
58.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete, broken up by Derrick BaitySimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+7
59.5%
Brandon McIlwain run for 7 yds to the SCaro 43Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
58.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
58.8%
Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 18Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
58.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 8 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
58.3%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
57.9%
Grant McKinniss punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Rashad Fenton at the SCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:2340% → 52%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
59.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 7 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+9
59.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 9 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
59.0%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
58.5%
A.J. Turner run for 7 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
58.1%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
57.8%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the SCaro 47Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+13
58.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Chavis Dawkins for 13 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
57.5%
[SHOT], B. McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 4 yards to the UK36, out-of-bounds, PENALTY SC holding (D.J. Park) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 20
50
+8
58.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 8 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+30
58.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 30 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
47.9%
A.J. Turner run for 12 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
51.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
51.4%
Jojo Kemp run for 6 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+2
52.7%
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
52.1%
Grant McKinniss punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
49.9%
David Williams run for 8 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+9
49.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
48.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 5
50
+5
48.1%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
47.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
48.0%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
48.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
49.7%
Sean Kelly punt for 29 yds, downed at the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:1450% → 49%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
49.7%
Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
49.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+19
48.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 19 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
50.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+14
50.1%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass intercepted by Jamarcus King at the UK46, Jamarcus King return to the UK10 (Nick Haynes), PENALTY SC pass interference (Antoine Wilder) 14 yards to the UK46, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
52.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
48.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 18 yds to the KENTUCKY 36 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal forward pass (Ryan Timmons) to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1550% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.9%
Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
49.8%
[SHOT], Jojo Kemp rush for no gain to the UK26, out-of-bounds (Chris Lammons), PENALTY UK holding (C.J. Conrad) 10 yards to the UK16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+28
49.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 28 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
52.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 11 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
53.5%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 43 Stephen Johnson fumbled, recovered by Kent Stephen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+43
65.7%
Stanley Williams run for 43 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
61.3%
A.J. Turner run for 11 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
60.5%
A.J. Turner run for 1 yd to the SCaro 35Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
60.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to K.C. Crosby, broken up by Jordan JonesSimilar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-2
62.2%
Brandon McIlwain sacked by Denzil Ware for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 33Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
63.3%
Sean Kelly punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
62.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
62.5%
Stanley Williams run for 11 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
63.2%
Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+9
64.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 9 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
65.5%
Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
65.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff Badet, broken up by Taylor StallworthSimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
63.4%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted D.J. Smith return for no gain to the SCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0039% → 40%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
61.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Terry GoogerSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
62.0%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+16
62.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 6 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive holding (Marcus McWilson) to the SCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
58.2%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
58.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to A.J. Turner for 1 yd to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+3
58.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 3 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
60.3%
Sean Kelly punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
64.1%
Stanley Williams run for 14 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-13
64.6%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Darius English for a loss of 13 yards to the Kent 13Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 23
OWN 13
0
63.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Kayaune RossSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 23
OWN 13
-8
62.4%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Darius English for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 7 Stephen Johnson fumbled, recovered by Kent Stanley Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 29
OWN 7
+5
61.5%
Grant McKinniss punt for 41 yds , Rashad Fenton returns for 5 yds to the SCaro 12 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:4940% → 49%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.4%
David Williams run for no gain to the SCaro 47Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
61.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+29
63.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jacob August for 29 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
57.8%
David Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+7
58.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 7 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+2
59.5%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
51.1%
Elliott Fry 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:5858% → 87%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
58.0%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 14 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
61.6%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
62.4%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+3
63.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
61.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
63.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the SCaro 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+7
63.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the SCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
63.7%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+7
62.7%
Stephen Johnson run for 7 yds to the SCaro 9Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+8
61.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 8 yds to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.9%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.7%
Jamari Smith run for 5 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
78.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to A.J. Turner for 12 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
77.6%
Brandon McIlwain run for 2 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
77.2%
Brandon McIlwain run for 7 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
75.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-6
77.3%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-6 Yards) to the SCaro 45Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
79.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
85.0%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+4
85.3%
Stephen Johnson run for 4 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
85.3%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
85.1%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+2
84.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
83.8%
Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds, downed at the SCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 16 yds · 1:4816% → 11%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
83.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Terry GoogerSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
85.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 12 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Terry Googer, broken up by Derrick BaitySimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
83.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 18 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
80.1%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Chavis DawkinsSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
80.8%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to David Williams for 12 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
77.0%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to K.C. CrosbySimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-7
78.5%
Brandon McIlwain sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 17
OPP 35
0
87.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 17
OPP 35
-19
89.5%
Brandon McIlwain sacked by Denzil Ware for a loss of 19 yards to the SCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:3095% → 96%
Q4 2:10
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
95.2%
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for no gain to the SCaro 37Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
95.2%
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
96.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 37Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
95.7%
Team run for no gain to the SCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:21
Benjamin Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+25.1
TD · Q3 12:45
Stanley Williams run for 43 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q2 5:44
A.J. Turner run for 12 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com