Try the model
LSU

LSU 13 at Auburn 18

AUB
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:10 · Josh Growden punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore differential
+19.5+9.80−9.8−19.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Pregame prior−8.7Home team on offense−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin+0.4Score differential+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:14: Daniel Carlson 29 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +4.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 9:43: Daniel Carlson 31 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +4.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:32: Colby Delahoussaye 25 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:36: Daniel Carlson 37 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +12.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:56: Daniel Carlson 29 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +12.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 10LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:10AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:11LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:12AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:49LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:32AUB 4th & 10 at LSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:19AUB 4th & 12 at LSU 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:17LSU 4th & 20 at AUB 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:14AUB 4th & 4 at LSU 12, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%−0.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:10LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 45, down 2
    Close callPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:39AUB 4th & 1 at LSU 1, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−9.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:52LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 41, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:43AUB 4th & 4 at LSU 14, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−9.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:36LSU 4th & 10 at AUB 12, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−13.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:32LSU 4th & 1 at AUB 7, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%−4.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−15.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:36AUB 4th & 1 at LSU 20, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%−3.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−19.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:30AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−2.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:01LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 29, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:56AUB 4th & 1 at LSU 12, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%−8.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−32.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:47LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:3635% → 35%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
34.9%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 4 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
35.0%
Sean White pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
35.0%
Kevin Phillips punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5065% → 64%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
35.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-10
35.3%
Fournette, Leonard rush for 11 yards to the LSU38, PENALTY LSU holding (Pocic, Ethan) 10 yards to the LSU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
35.5%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+7
35.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
36.0%
Josh Growden punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3436% → 37%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
36.2%
Sean White sacked by Arden Key and Duke Riley for a loss of 10 yards to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+7
36.1%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+12
36.3%
Sean White pass complete to Kyle Davis for 12 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
36.8%
Kevin Phillips punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1363% → 63%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
36.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 9 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 22
-5
36.7%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
37.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi Dupre, broken up by Johnathan FordSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
37.4%
Josh Growden punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1038% → 39%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
37.7%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 9
50
+6
38.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+10
38.2%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 10 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
38.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-3
38.9%
Stanton Truitt run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
38.6%
Sean White pass incomplete to Ryan Davis, broken up by Donte JacksonSimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+51
38.8%
Daniel Carlson 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3861% → 64%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
39.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 11 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
39.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 2 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+52
39.2%
Derrius Guice run for 52 yds to the Aub 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
38.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 5 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
38.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (3 Yards) to the Aub 2Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
38.9%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 3Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 3 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 5:1437% → 40%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
37.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
37.3%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+9
37.0%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 9 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
37.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 36Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
37.9%
Sean White run for 5 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+21
38.5%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 21 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
39.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
40.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+9
39.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 9 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
40.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 7 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+4
40.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
40.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
40.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-8
40.1%
Sean White sacked by Davon Godchaux for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
40.0%
Daniel Carlson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:5461% → 59%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
39.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 35 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
37.9%
Danny Etling run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+19
38.5%
Danny Etling run for 4 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (Tre' Williams) to the Aub 24 for a 1ST down, Williams ejected for targetingSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
37.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-4
37.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-10
38.4%
Danny Etling sacked by Carl Lawson for a loss of 10 yards to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+51
41.1%
Colby Delahoussaye 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 2:3241% → 48%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
41.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 7 yds to the Aub 41 Kamryn Pettway fumbled, recovered by Aub Marcus DavisSimilar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+4
43.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
43.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Aub 46Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+36
42.8%
Sean White pass complete to Darius Slayton for 36 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
44.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+4
45.0%
Sean White pass complete to Marcus Davis for 4 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
44.0%
Sean White pass incomplete to Tony Stevens, broken up by Tre'Davious WhiteSimilar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
48.1%
Daniel Carlson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5754% → 54%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
46.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 13 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
44.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
45.0%
Danny Etling run for 7 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
44.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for no gain to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
46.2%
Josh Growden punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 80 yds · 2:1748% → 51%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
48.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+36
48.3%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 36 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
51.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 13 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
52.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+14
52.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 14 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
53.0%
Johnson, Kerryon rush for 5 yards to the LSU5, PENALTY LSU substitution infraction 5 yards to the LSU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
53.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the LSU 3Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
53.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:1852% → 51%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
48.5%
Danny Etling run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
48.9%
Danny Etling run for 1 yd to the LSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:0851% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dontavius Russell) to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
47.6%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
48.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Colin Jeter, broken up by Tray MatthewsSimilar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
49.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 8 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
48.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
47.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
48.8%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
51.0%
Josh Growden punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:5751% → 60%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
50.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
51.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+12
50.4%
Sean White run for 12 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
51.8%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 24 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
55.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+15
56.5%
White, Sean pass incomplete to Stevens, Tony, PENALTY LSU roughing passer (Key, Arden) 15 yards to the LSU20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
56.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
56.9%
Sean White pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+5
55.4%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 5 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
59.6%
Daniel Carlson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:0044% → 48%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
56.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 16 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+32
54.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Colin Jeter for 32 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
50.7%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
50.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Derrick Brown) to the Aub 18Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+6
50.9%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
51.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-3
51.4%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 11Similar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 9
OPP 11
-1
53.9%
Danny Etling sacked by Marlon Davidson and Montravius Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 12Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
52.1%
Colby Delahoussaye 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:4055% → 53%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.8%
Eli Stove run for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
54.3%
Sean White pass incomplete to Kerryon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-9
52.8%
Sean White sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 16 Sean White fumbled, forced by Arden Key, recovered by LSU Davon Godchaux , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5953% → 57%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
47.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+4
47.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+2
50.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the Aub 7Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+25
42.9%
Colby Delahoussaye 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:5047% → 65%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
46.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
45.1%
Sean White pass complete to Kyle Davis for 12 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
49.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+3
50.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+23
50.0%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 23 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
54.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
54.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
52.6%
Sean White run for 1 yd to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+37
65.1%
Daniel Carlson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:5641% → 48%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
58.9%
D.J. Chark run for 35 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
54.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
52.3%
Danny Etling run for 1 yd to the Aub 31 Danny Etling fumbled, recovered by Aub Jeff HollandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5764% → 59%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
63.9%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
63.7%
Sean White pass incomplete to Kyle DavisSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+3
59.5%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 3 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
59.3%
Kevin Phillips punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2242% → 37%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
57.8%
Fournette, Leonard rush for no gain to the LSU30, PENALTY LSU personal foul (Jeter, Colin) 15 yards to the LSU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 25
OWN 15
0
59.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 25
OWN 15
+7
59.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 7 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 18
OWN 22
+7
61.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 7 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 9:01
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
62.9%
Josh Growden punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 5:5664% → 89%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
63.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
65.5%
John Franklin III run for 4 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+9
65.1%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
67.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+8
68.3%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
72.8%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+9
74.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 9 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
74.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
77.3%
Stanton Truitt run for 8 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+1
76.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+29
88.9%
Daniel Carlson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23END OF GAME
17 plays · 60 yds · 2:4918% → 13%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.7%
Danny Etling run for 12 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Carlton DavisSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
81.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 16 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
77.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 2 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
80.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Leonard Fournette, broken up by Deshaun DavisSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+18
82.9%
Danny Etling run for 18 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
75.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 9 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
76.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+4
78.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 4 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
76.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to DeSean SmithSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-6
76.4%
Danny Etling sacked by Carl Lawson for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 20Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+10
87.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 10 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 6
OPP 10
-5
86.6%
Etling, Danny pass complete to Dural, Travin for 8 yards to the AUBURN2, PENALTY LSU illegal shift 5 yards to the AUBURN15, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+13.4
FG · Q4 2:56
Daniel Carlson 29 yd FG GOOD
+12.9
FG · Q4 12:36
Daniel Carlson 37 yd FG GOOD
+12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com