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OHIO

Ohio 19 at Tennessee 28

TENN
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:29 · Greg Windham run for 5 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+37.1Home team on offense+1.8Garbage-time factor+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score differential−0.1Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:38: Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +0.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 6:02: Louie Zervos 30 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +1.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 4:57: Joshua Dobbs 13 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick) — TENN win probability +7.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:09: Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 4 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +14.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:07: Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +11.3 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7OHIO made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 8:45OHIO 4th & 1 at TENN 21, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:48TENN 4th & 20 at OHIO 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%
    40% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:32OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:04OHIO 4th & 10 at TENN 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:49OHIO 4th & 4 at TENN 13, down 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.4%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:13TENN 4th & 18 at TENN 20, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:29OHIO 4th & 2 at TENN 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:02OHIO 4th & 9 at TENN 13, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:55TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:53OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 19, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:04TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 35, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:05OHIO 4th & 6 at TENN 40, down 2
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.5%−0.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:25OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:27TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 45, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:28OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:46TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 36, up 2
    Close callPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:32OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 21, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.6
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:40TENN 4th & 12 at OHIO 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:22TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:38TENN Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:57TENN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:09OHIO Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:07TENN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:2697% → 97%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
96.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 35 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
96.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2FG
19 plays · 53 yds · 5:313% → 4%
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Greg Windham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.7%
Papi White run for no gain to the Ohio 25Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.6%
Greg Windham pass complete to Kyle Belack for 5 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+15
96.6%
Farkas, Michael punt 45 yards to the TENNESSEE25, Sutton, Cameron return 0 yards to the TENNESSEE25, PENALTY TENNESSEE face mask 15 yards to the OHIO45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIO.Similar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
96.6%
OHIO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+10
96.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 5
50
-6
96.4%
OHIO Penalty, Illegal Formation (-6 Yards) to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
96.5%
Dorian Brown run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 5
50
+7
96.4%
Greg Windham pass complete to Brendan Cope for 7 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
96.4%
Greg Windham run for 3 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
96.3%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+5
96.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Derek Barnett) to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
96.2%
Greg Windham run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
96.1%
Greg Windham pass complete to Brendan Cope for 2 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
96.1%
Papi White run for 6 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+1
96.1%
Dorian Brown run for 1 yd to the Tenn 21Similar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+38
95.9%
Louie Zervos 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:3596% → 95%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
95.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+27
95.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 27 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
95.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 8 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
95.8%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+5
95.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Ohio 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
95.7%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-10
95.6%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Tarell Basham for a loss of 10 yards to the Ohio 35Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 18
OPP 35
-2
95.2%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 37Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 20
OPP 37
+55
95.1%
Aaron Medley 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:005% → 5%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
95.1%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
95.0%
Greg Windham pass complete to Mason Morgan for 1 yd to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
95.0%
Greg Windham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+6
95.1%
Michael Farkas punt for 48 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 6 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-8
94.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass intercepted Randy Stites return for 5 yds to the Tenn 23 TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Hurd) to the Tenn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:175% → 6%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
94.6%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to TEAMSimilar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
94.6%
Greg Windham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
94.7%
Greg Windham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
94.5%
Louie Zervos 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:5795% → 95%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
94.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 10 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
94.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+12
94.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 12 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
94.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+11
94.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 11 yds to the Ohio 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
94.5%
Joshua Dobbs run for 8 yds to the Ohio 21Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
94.5%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Ohio 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.2%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8FG
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:355% → 7%
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
94.9%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 42 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
94.3%
Dorian Brown run for 3 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
94.3%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+11
94.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 11 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
94.2%
Dorian Brown run for 4 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
94.1%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 3 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 3
OPP 12
-1
94.1%
Dorian Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 13Similar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
93.5%
Louie Zervos 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:0993% → 93%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
93.2%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+4
93.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-9
93.1%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Kevin Robbins for a loss of 9 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 18
OWN 20
+3
92.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 47 yds , Papi White returns for 3 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 3:557% → 9%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
93.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Emmanuel Moseley) to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
92.6%
Dorian Brown run for 6 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+2
92.5%
Dorian Brown run for 2 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 2
OPP 41
0
92.4%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Dorian BrownSimilar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+5
92.6%
Greg Windham run for 5 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
92.3%
OHIO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Durrell Wood) to the Tenn 46Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+3
92.6%
Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 3 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 17
OPP 43
0
92.6%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+29
92.8%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 29 yds to the Tenn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
91.6%
Kylan Nelson run for 3 yds to the Tenn 11Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-5
91.6%
OHIO Penalty, False Start (Sebastian Smith) to the Tenn 16Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+3
91.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Papi White for 3 yds to the Tenn 13Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
92.1%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Troy MangenSimilar
Q2 6:02
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
90.8%
Louie Zervos 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5592% → 91%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
91.6%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 5 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-5
91.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Brett Kendrick) to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
91.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
91.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
90.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:489% → 9%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
90.8%
Greg Windham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-5
90.8%
OHIO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 13Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+6
90.8%
Greg Windham pass complete to Brendan Cope for 6 yds to the Ohio 19Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
91.0%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Jordan ReidSimilar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
91.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 44 yds, downed at the Tenn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3791% → 90%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
91.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
91.3%
Joshua Dobbs pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-8
91.0%
Joshua Dobbs sacked by Tarell Basham for a loss of 8 yards to the Tenn 35 Joshua Dobbs fumbled, recovered by TennSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
90.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:5110% → 11%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
90.0%
Papi White run for 7 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+5
89.3%
Greg Windham pass complete to Brendan Cope for 5 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
89.2%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
89.1%
Greg Windham run for 4 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+14
88.8%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 14 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
87.7%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to Sebastian SmithSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
87.5%
Kylan Nelson run for no gain to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+4
87.8%
Greg Windham run for 4 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
89.4%
Michael Farkas punt for 39 yds, downed at the Tenn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
88.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 2 yds to the Tenn 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3212% → 12%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Greg Windham pass incomplete to TEAMSimilar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Vinny Emanuele run for no gain to the Ohio 25Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.0%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 7 yds to the Ohio 32Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
87.8%
Michael Farkas punt for 49 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for 10 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5088% → 86%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
87.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 12 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
88.2%
Joshua Dobbs run for 6 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-2
88.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
87.1%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for no gain to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
86.0%
Trevor Daniel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18PUNT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4014% → 13%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
85.8%
Papi White run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 19Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+6
86.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 6 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 6
OWN 25
-3
86.6%
Michael Farkas punt for 43 yds , Alvin Kamara returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2886% → 84%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
85.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 9 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
86.8%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 8:46
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-2
85.8%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 36Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
84.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 50 yds , Papi White returns for no gain to the Ohio 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20PUNT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1316% → 15%
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
84.0%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 7 yds to the Ohio 21Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
84.9%
Michael Farkas punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:0285% → 93%
Q3 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
84.7%
John Kelly run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 5
50
+19
85.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jason Croom for 19 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
86.2%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+11
85.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Alvin Kamara for 11 yds to the Ohio 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
85.6%
Joshua Dobbs run for 3 yds to the Ohio 12Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+13
92.7%
Joshua Dobbs 13 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:279% → 26%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
91.4%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 37 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
90.0%
Vinny Emanuele run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
90.0%
Vinny Emanuele run for 4 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+9
90.0%
Greg Windham pass complete to Troy Mangen for 9 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
88.8%
Papi White run for 6 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+15
89.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Emmanuel Moseley) to the Tenn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
89.1%
Papi White run for 1 yd to the Tenn 4Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
74.4%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 4 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:2780% → 92%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
80.3%
Joshua Dobbs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+5
79.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 5 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+28
78.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 28 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
82.4%
Joshua Dobbs run for 11 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
82.6%
Alvin Kamara run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 43Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+9
81.7%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Preston Williams for 9 yds Preston Williams fumbled, recovered by Tenn Preston WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+2
82.9%
Alvin Kamara run for 2 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
83.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Jauan Jennings for 7 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
83.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
80.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
92.0%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:549% → 8%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.1%
Papi White run for 5 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
91.1%
Greg Windham run for 7 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+1
92.3%
Greg Windham run for 1 yd to the Ohio 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:4791% → 92%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
90.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 8Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+7
90.5%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 7 yds to the Tenn 15Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+5
90.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 5 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
90.7%
Joshua Dobbs run for 14 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
90.8%
Alvin Kamara run for 11 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
91.9%
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 11 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
93.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+5
92.8%
Joshua Dobbs run for 5 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
92.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:336% → 8%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
93.6%
Greg Windham run for 6 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
92.6%
Greg Windham pass complete to Troy Mangen for 4 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+10
93.5%
Greg Windham pass complete to Sebastian Smith for 10 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
92.3%
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 5 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
92.1%
Greg Windham run for 4 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-2
92.5%
Papi White run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:3896% → 96%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
96.0%
Alvin Kamara run for 3 yds to the Ohio 44Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+11
96.0%
Joshua Dobbs run for 11 yds to the Ohio 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
96.0%
John Kelly run for 9 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:09
Greg Windham pass complete to Jordan Reid for 4 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q4 11:07
Joshua Dobbs pass complete to Josh Malone for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q3 4:57
Joshua Dobbs 13 Yd Run (Aaron Medley Kick)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com