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ECU

East Carolina 15 at South Carolina 20

SC
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:20 · Worth Gregory punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+10.9Home team on offense+7.6Garbage-time factor+1.2Score differential+2.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:47: Brandon McIlwain run for 10 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK) — SC win probability +1.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 7:58: Elliott Fry 37 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +1.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 12:05: Davis Plowman 43 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +1.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:24: Elliott Fry 39 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +2.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:29: Philip Nelson pass complete to Devin Anderson for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ECU win probability +27.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 14:43ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:58SC 4th & 10 at ECU 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:37ECU 4th & 6 at SC 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:37SC 4th & 4 at SC 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 2 at SC 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.0%−1.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:05ECU 4th & 5 at SC 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:05SC 4th & 1 at SC 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.6%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:35ECU 4th & 5 at SC 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:37SC 4th & 9 at SC 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:20ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 48, down 11
    Close callPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:07SC 4th & 6 at ECU 46, up 11
    Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:07ECU 4th & 4 at SC 8, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−6.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:07SC 4th & 5 at SC 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:11SC 4th & 1 at SC 29, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:42ECU 4th & 17 at SC 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:24SC 4th & 11 at ECU 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−5.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:08SC 4th & 1 at ECU 40, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−4.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:43SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:47SC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:29ECU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 14:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.1%
Brandon McIlwain run for 9 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
69.1%
Zay Jones run for 12 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.0%
Philip Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
69.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 14:43
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
69.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for no gain to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 14:43
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
69.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 2:0069% → 71%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
69.4%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the SCaro 18Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+3
69.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 3 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+7
69.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 7 yds to the SCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+42
69.5%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 42 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
69.7%
David Williams run for 20 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
71.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 10 yds for a TD, (Elliott Fry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
71.0%
Philip Nelson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 22Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+12
71.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 12 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
70.9%
James Summers run for 7 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-10
70.8%
Philip Nelson sacked by Chris Lammons for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 29 Philip Nelson fumbled, recovered by SCaro Dante Sawyer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:2172% → 74%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
72.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
72.4%
B. McIlwain pass incomplete to Hayden Hurst, QB hurry by RICHARDSON, Trl, PENALTY ECU holding 10 yards to the ECU19, 1ST DOWN SC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
72.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 5 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-5
72.4%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
72.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
72.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete, broken up by Dayon PrattSimilar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+37
74.0%
Elliott Fry 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:2126% → 26%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
73.8%
Anthony Scott run for 12 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
73.7%
Anthony Scott run for 9 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+11
73.1%
James Summers run for 11 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
73.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for 8 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-8
73.0%
Philip Nelson sacked by D.J. Wonnum for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 45Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+15
74.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 15 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
73.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 11 yds to the SCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
73.5%
James Summers run for 5 yds to the SCaro 14Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-1
73.5%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 15Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
73.7%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
73.8%
Davis Plowman 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.7%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
74.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to A.J. TurnerSimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
74.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jacob August for 2 yds to the SCaro 31Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
74.2%
Sean Kelly punt for 46 yds , Quay Johnson returns for no gain to the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:0126% → 27%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
74.4%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+17
74.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 17 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
74.0%
Philip Nelson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
74.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 4 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+12
73.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 12 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
73.4%
Philip Nelson sacked by Keir Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+10
74.7%
James Summers run for 10 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+2
73.9%
Philip Nelson run for 2 yds to the SCaro 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+3
74.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Devin Anderson for 3 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
73.7%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
73.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 6 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 25
-1
73.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 26Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
72.9%
Davis Plowman 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
74.6%
David Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the SCaro 32Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+7
74.3%
Randrecous Davis run for 7 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+5
74.7%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 5 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
74.5%
Brandon McIlwain run for no gain to the SCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10INT
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:3728% → 25%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
72.5%
Philip Nelson run for 10 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
71.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for no gain to the SCaro 34Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-4
71.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Anthony Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the SCaro 38Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+9
73.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 9 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+8
76.2%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 8 yds to the SCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
74.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 15 yds to the SCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
74.0%
James Summers run for 5 yds to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.0%
James Summers run for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.8%
Philip Nelson pass intercepted, touchback. Jamarcus King return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
77.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 6 yds to the SCaro 26Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-5
77.3%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 5 yards to the SCaro 21Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
76.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
75.9%
Sean Kelly punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
78.5%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete, broken up by Ulric JonesSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
78.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 12 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
78.0%
Philip Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-6
78.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to James Summers for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 16
OWN 38
+10
79.3%
Anthony Scott run for 10 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 4:20
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
79.1%
Worth Gregory punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
79.0%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the SCaro 13Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+6
79.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Randrecous Davis for 6 yds to the SCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
79.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 3 yds to the SCaro 22Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+1
79.2%
Brandon McIlwain run for 1 yd to the SCaro 23Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+15
78.5%
David Williams run for 15 yds to the SCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14INT
9 plays · 68 yds · 0:0021% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
79.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 21 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
78.3%
Anthony Scott run for 9 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+6
77.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 6 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
77.8%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+16
77.8%
James Summers run for 16 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
76.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 17 yds to the SCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
76.6%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 7Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
76.6%
Philip Nelson pass intercepted Chris Lammons return for no gain to the SCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 53 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+10
80.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 10 yds to the SCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
81.0%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 6Similar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+26
80.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Randrecous Davis for 26 yds to the SCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
81.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Randrecous DavisSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+18
81.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Jacob August for 3 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
50
+4
82.4%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
82.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Jacob AugustSimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
81.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
80.7%
Sean Kelly punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16MISSED FG
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:5219% → 19%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
80.9%
Anthony Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 15Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+6
81.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Stephen Baggett for 6 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+27
81.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 27 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
79.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 4 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
79.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 8 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
79.0%
NELSON, Philip pass incomplete to JONES, Zay, PENALTY SC pass interference (Chris Lammons) 15 yards to the SC25, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
77.6%
James Summers run for 11 yds to the SCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
77.6%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the SCaro 13Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+5
77.6%
James Summers run for 5 yds to the SCaro 8Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
78.8%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the SCaro 8Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
81.4%
Davis Plowman 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ulric JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
84.1%
David Williams run for 7 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+16
83.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to David Williams for 16 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
85.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 5 yds to the SCaro 48Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
85.2%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Randrecous Davis, broken up by Corey SeargentSimilar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
84.4%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Randrecous Davis, broken up by Corey SeargentSimilar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
83.4%
Sean Kelly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quay Johnson at the ECaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18FUMBLE
15 plays · 90 yds · 3:0515% → 18%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
85.4%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 11Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+7
85.6%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+6
86.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 6 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
85.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Anthony Scott) to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+7
85.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+13
85.2%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 13 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
83.5%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Quay JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
84.0%
Philip Nelson run for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-11
84.1%
SCOTT, Anthony rush for 8 yards to the SC47 (D.J. Smith), PENALTY ECU illegal block 11 yards to the ECU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+15
87.0%
NELSON, Philip pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jimmy, PENALTY SC pass interference (Rashad Fenton) 15 yards to the ECU49, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
83.3%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 14 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
83.0%
James Summers run for no gain to the SCaro 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
83.0%
NELSON, Philip pass incomplete to JONES, Zay (Antoine Wilder), PENALTY SC pass interference (Antoine Wilder) 5 yards to the SC32, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
82.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 22 yds to the SCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
81.6%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds Anthony Scott fumbled, forced by Antoine Wilder, recovered by SCaro D.J. SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
87.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 7 yds to the SCaro 27Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
87.9%
A.J. Turner run for 2 yds to the SCaro 29Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
87.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for no gain to the SCaro 29Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
86.8%
Sean Kelly punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3014% → 12%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
85.9%
Zay Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+28
86.7%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 28 yds to the SCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
83.9%
Devin Anderson run for 1 yd to the SCaro 24Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-8
83.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Quay Johnson for 2 yds to the SCaro 22 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SCaro 32Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 17
OPP 32
0
85.4%
Philip Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 17
OPP 32
0
87.1%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete, broken up by Dante SawyerSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 17
OPP 32
+45
88.0%
Davis Plowman 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:1888% → 92%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
88.3%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 19 yds to the SCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+36
89.6%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 36 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
89.9%
David Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 11
OPP 21
0
89.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
89.1%
Brandon McIlwain run for no gain to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
91.9%
Elliott Fry 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 3:558% → 36%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
92.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 13 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
91.1%
Philip Nelson sacked by Darius English and Taylor Stallworth for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+9
92.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Devin Anderson for 9 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+15
92.3%
NELSON, Philip pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Jimmy, PENALTY SC pass interference (Jamarcus King) 15 yards to the SC47, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
90.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Devin Anderson for 6 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+8
89.9%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 8 yds to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
89.4%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 5 yds to the SCaro 28Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-5
89.1%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Messiah Rice) to the SCaro 33Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
90.1%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 10 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
89.5%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 10 yds to the SCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
89.5%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
89.5%
Philip Nelson pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+11
90.8%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Devin Anderson for 11 yds to the SCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
92.0%
SUMMERS, James rush for 2 yards to the SC0, clock 02:57, PENALTY ECU holding (RICE, Messiah) 10 yards to the SC12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+8
92.0%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Zay Jones for 8 yds to the SCaro 4Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.2%
Philip Nelson pass complete to Devin Anderson for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23END OF GAME
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:2190% → 94%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
90.2%
A.J. Turner run for 6 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-5
90.6%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (D.J. Park) to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
90.4%
Brandon McIlwain run for 6 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
89.9%
Brandon McIlwain pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 2 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 2:08
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+25
92.0%
David Williams run for 25 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
93.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 17Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 12
OPP 17
-2
93.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:29
Philip Nelson pass complete to Devin Anderson for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-27.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+6.4
FG · Q4 6:24
Elliott Fry 39 yd FG GOOD
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com